I have been watching the Manitoba Moose on a full-time basis for the past four seasons, providing me the opportunity to watch young players like Ville Heinola, David Gustafsson, and Cole Perfetti start their professional careers. But I am probably more excited about this year’s version of the Moose, simply due to the number of truly young prospects playing with the Winnipeg Jets’ farm team. While 20 year old players are not uncommon in the AHL, it is extremely rare for one team to have four highly drafted ones playing key forward positions.
The quartet I am referring to were all selected in the top 3 rounds of the past two NHL Entry Drafts: Chaz Lucius (drafted 18th overall in 2021), Brad Lambert (drafted 30th overall in 2022), Nikita Chibrikov (drafted 50th overall in 2021), and Danny Zhilkin (drafted 77th overall in 2022).
The Moose are deploying Lambert as their #1 center and the soon-to-be 20 yr old has performed admirably in the role thus far. On his wing on the top line is 20 yr old Chibrikov and the small feisty winger has been productive on a consistent basis in the early AHL season. The next line typically sees 20 yr old Lucius centering veteran players like Jeff Malott, Dominic Toninato, or Axel Jonsson-Fjallby giving Manitoba solid 2-way play. Finally, we get to the Moose’s 3rd line and we find another soon-to-be 20 yr old in center Zhilkin, who is just getting his first taste of professional hockey and appears to be finding his feet recently.
Manitoba also has a handful of other young prospects early in their development: 21 yr old winger Daniel Torgersson (2nd rd – 40th) & 21 yr old defenseman Tyrel Bauer (6th rd – 164th). They also have 20 yr goalie Thomas Milic (5th rd – 151st) under contract, though he is mainly playing in the ECHL with the Norfolk Admirals to date.
I decided to do a little research to see if Winnipeg’s farm team ever had a similiar situation and discovered that the 2016-17 roster had quite a bit in common. That version of the Manitoba Moose had 20 yr old players like 1st rounders Kyle Connor (17th) & Jack Roslovic (25th), 2nd rounder Brendan Lemieux (31st), and 4th rounder Chase De Leo (99th) with significant minutes that season. In addition, 21 yr old Eric Comrie was sharing the crease with veteran Ondrej Pavelec and forwards like Andrew Copp, Nic Petan, and Jansen Harkins made their debuts after their respective junior or NCAA seasons came to an end.
After discovering all that, I got to thinking what should my expectations be for these key young prospects with Manitoba this season. With a comparable Moose team to start my analysis, I opted to expand the data pool by adding some other players we would be familiar with, along with some of the recent top performances by 20 yr olds in the AHL.
Starting out with three players selected in the top 10 of their drafts, my review began with the Buffalo Sabres’ Jack Quinn, the San Jose Sharks’ Logan Couture, and the Ottawa Senators’ Josh Norris.
Quinn, a 6′ 176 lb forward chosen 8th overall, recorded the highest points per game by a 20 yr old AHLer since the 1994-95 season, when Miroslav Satan put up 1.6 pts/gm. Like Winnipeg’s Lambert & Lucius, the young Sabre had a taste of the AHL as a 19 yr old (9 pts in 15 gms), but Jack really exploded the following season with 61 pts in 45 games (1.356 pts/gm). Back in 2007, the Sharks selected Couture with the 9th overall selection and the 6’1″ 200 lb forward joined their AHL squad for the 2009-10 campaign. After being shutout in 4 games the previous year, the 20 yr old improved greatly with 53 pts in 42 games (1.262 pts/gm). Another 8th overall selection, the Senator’s Norris made his AHL debut in the 2020-21 season. The 6’1″ 200 lb forward found immediate success as a 20 yr old, amassing 61 pts in 56 games (1.089 pts/gm).
Up next I looked at two current Winnipeg Jets and one former member of the franchise. From that 2016-17 Manitoba Moose squad, I included Kyle Connor & Jack Roslovic to my review, along with a look at the early career of current Jet Nino Niederreiter.
Connor was drafted by Winnipeg with the 17th overall selection in 2015 and the 6’1″ 183 lb winger responded with a great NCAA season (1.87 pts/gm) before joining Manitoba the following year. The 19/20 yr old American was able to remain productive offensively while making the step up to pro hockey, putting up 44 pts in 52 games (.846 pts/gm) with the Moose. Roslovic was also drafted in 2015 with the 25th overall pick and the 6’1″ 187 lb center/winger ended up with 35 pts in 32 games (1.094 pts/gm) in 2016-17. Finally, Niederreiter was a 5th overall selection by the NY Islanders in 2010 and the 6’2″ 188 lb winger was immediately thrown into the deep NHL waters. The Isles were not very good, so it probably wasn’t that surprising that Nino struggled (3 pts in 64 gms). After being traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Swiss forward found some success as a 19/20 yr old in the AHL (21 pts in 44 gms & .477 pts/gm). It wasn’t until the following two AHL seasons that Niederreiter started scoring at a higher rate (.857 & 1.029 pts/gm).
The final three players I included all spent some time in the Boston Bruins organization, David Krejci, Brad Marchand, and Kris Versteeg. All three of these players were drafted in the 3rd round or later and also are similar in size to our four Jets’ prospects.
Starting off with Krejci, a 63rd overall selection in 2004, the 6′ 187 lb center started out with Providence in 2006-07, totalling 74 pts in 69 games (1.072 pts/gm). The diminutive Marchand’s style of play has some likeness to the feisty Chibrikov’s, so it seemed like a good idea to include him in the review. The 5’9″ 181 lb Bruin is the same height as Winnipeg’s 2nd rounder and Marchand was able to put up 59 pts in 79 AHL games as a 20 yr old (.747 pts/gm). It wasn’t until the following season that the super pest came closer to a point per game, with 32 in 34 games (.941 pts/gm). Another smaller player, the 5’11” Versteeg was the 134th overall pick in 2004 before scoring 72 pts in 70 AHL games as a 20 yr old (1.029 pts/gm).
With the Manitoba Moose only playing 18% of their 72 regular season games, it might be a bit too early to project how Lambert, Lucius, Chibrikov, and Zhilkin will finish in terms of point production, but it doesn’t hurt to compare their current output to the players above.
Brad Lambert is coming off a season where he had a taste of AHL play with bottom-six minutes (3 pts in 14 gms) before starring for the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds (38 pts in 26 gms). This year, the 6’1″ 183 lb Finn has moved to the center position and has rewarded coach Mark Morrison with 13 pts in 13 games, including 6 goals and an 18.2 shooting percentage.
Chaz Lucius also had a cup of coffee in the AHL as a 19 yr old, getting 5 pts in 12 games before moving onto the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks. He excelled in his brief stint there (15 pts in 6 gms) before an injury ended his season prematurely. This year, the 6’1″ 185 lb Lucius is playing top 6 minutes with Manitoba, but has missed a few games due to his first concussion. Due to that injury and the Moose easing him back into the lineup, the young American center has played 7 of the 13 games, putting up 6 pts (.860 pts/gm). While he has been limited to only 1 goal this season, his 8.6 shooting percentage seems about 3 to 5% lower than expected, so that should improve.
The 20 year old Chibrikov made the jump over the Atlantic after a couple of low scoring seasons in the KHL. The 2nd round selection is a smaller player, standing at 5’9″ and 170 lbs, but he doesn’t let his size stop him from going into the tough areas. The talented winger also possesses great stick-handling and passing vision, as shown by his 9 assists on the year. The Russian has added 5 goals to that to give him a team-leading 14 pts in 13 games (1.080 pts/gm) while mainly playing top line minutes.
Finally we get to Danny Zhilkin, a 6’1″ 196 lb center making the jump from the OHL after putting up 56 pts in 60 games (.933 pts/gm). With the Manitoba Moose, the Russian-born Canadian started off in a rotation of the bottom six players, but he has become a more permanent part of the lineup as the season has progressed. The forward was held off the scoresheet in his first 4 games in the AHL, but has since put up 5 pts in 8 games, giving him a .417 pts/gm average for the season.
All four of those players have taken advantage of the Moose’s AHL leading PP (26.2%) to put up their points, especially Lambert & Chibrikov who each have 6 powerplay points on the season. Lucius (2pts) and Zhilkin (1 pt) have also added points with the man-advantage, while Wyatt Bongiovanni is surprisingly leading the team with 3 PP goals (7 pts in 11 gms).
Putting some of that information in a more easy-to-read format, here is a list of how the above players did in the season they were or turned 20 years old.
Player Name — Points Per Game
Jack Quinn ——– 1.356
Logan Couture —- 1.262
Jack Roslovic —- 1.094
Josh Norris ——– 1.089
**Nikita Chibrikov —- 1.080
David Krejci —— 1.072
Kris Versteeg —- 1.029
**Brad Lambert —- 1.000
**Chaz Lucius ——- 0.860
Kyle Connor —— 0.846
Brad Marchand — 0.747
Nino Niederreiter —- 0.477
**Danny Zhilkin —– 0.417
Now every player trods their development path at their own pace, but it’s possible that we can try to use the above list as a sort of ruler to show what Lambert, Lucius, Chibrikov, and Zhilkin might become. Of the 9 examples I looked at, it is interesting to note that 8 of them had at least some NHL time the following season and only Niederreiter took another full season to make it to the big league (or back to, in his case).
Does that mean that if Lambert, Lucius, & Chibrikov can keep on scoring that they are guaranteed to become Winnipeg Jets next season?
Not at all, but it would certainly suggest that they are very close to breaking that barrier. If that trio can avoid any big injuries this season, I would have to expect that they would be given long looks by the coaching staff during the upcoming training camp. With Zhilkin, at this point I think he will need another year of seasoning in the AHL at least, but he has showed some promise in becoming an bottom six NHL center eventually. As for the other three, I personally think they all have the talent to push for NHL spots next season, but there could be limited spaces in the Winnipeg Jets’ lineup if the franchise re-signs Niederreiter and no other trades are made in the off-season. Regardless of how it all plays out, I will be happy to watch the young forwards develop over the rest of the 2023-24 campaign.
