As the series switched to Denver all tied up, the Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche were set to see who would take advantage of Friday night’s contest. With the Avs in control of momentum, the True North franchise was looking to flip the script. Lets find out how it went….
Winnipeg started the game extremely well, outshooting and outskating Colorado in the opening minutes of the game. The best early scoring chance saw Georgiev deny Appleton from the net-side when the forward got in too tight to raise the puck over his pad. Eventually the hometown Avalanche found their legs and the game tilted in their favour for the middle of the period. This pressure paid off for Colorado when a rush saw Manson test Hellebuyck from the high slot, with a rebound popping out to Parise to open up the scoring. After withstanding a bit more push by the Avs, Winnipeg had a flurry of chances late in the period, especially a great shift by the Jets’ top unit. According to MoneyPuck, the game was statistically close in the opening frame.
First Period MoneyPuck Stats: Score: 1 to 0 for the Avs, shots 10 to 9 for the Avs, 52.9% Deserve To Win for the Avs, Expected Goals – all situations (1.15-0.96 COL), & 5 on 5 (1.15-0.96 COL)
The middle period was an interesting one. Despite being outshot 16-10 in the frame, Winnipeg played fairly well and created a lot of scoring opportunities. However, it took a little luck for the Jets to even up the game, as Toffoli picked up the puck along the Avs’ goalline and managed to slip it between Georgiev and the post to net his 1st post-season goal with Winnipeg (see largest of the blue dots approximately an inch below Colorado’s net in MoneyPuck’s graphic). A bit later a seemingly rare occurrence in the series happened, the Avalanche got called for a penalty (hooking Scheifele). The Jets’ PP didn’t create that many dangerous looks, but as the advantage neared an end Winnipeg managed to get some bodies in front for a Morrissey point shot PP goal. Just past the midway point of the frame, the Jets had a 2-1 lead and the teams traded opportunities without success for the remainder of the period. Note that MoneyPuck had Winnipeg in front for expected goals after two, despite being outshot the Jets were getting to the dirty areas.
After Two Periods MoneyPuck Stats: Score: 2 to 1 for the Jets, shots 28 to 19 for the Avs, 62.5% Deserve to Win for the Jets, Expected Goals – all situations (3.05-2.62 WPG) & 5 on 5 (2.57-1.69 WPG)
The 3rd period opened up terribly for Winnipeg Jets’ fans, as Appleton got called for a trip to send Colorado to the powerplay. The man-advantage paid dividends a minute in when a MacKinnon point shot found a path through a maze of bodies in front of Hellebuyck. 23 seconds later, Vilardi misses a stick lift and goes to the sin bin for 4 minutes for drawing blood with a highstick. The Jets managed to kill off the first 2 minutes, but the Avalanche PP took the lead with a goal from Nichushkin. Things just got worse from there when a Scheifele turnover at the opponent’s blueline lead to another Colorado goal. Winnipeg couldn’t gain any momentum as they were constantly sent to the box by the officials and the Avs added another goal just as a PP expired. All that was left was for Colorado to add an empty netter, in a period that saw them outshoot the Jets 12 to 5. In the end, MoneyPuck’s stats weren’t terrible and Winnipeg even controlled the expected goals at 5 on 5.
After Three Periods MoneyPuck Stats: 53.3% Deserve to Win for the Avs, Expected Goals – all situations (4.50-3.65 COL) & 5 on 5 (3.16-2.01 WPG)
FINAL SCORE: COLORADO AVALANCHE 6 WINNIPEG JETS 2
SHOTS: COLORADO AVALANCHE 40 WINNIPEG JETS 24
Game Observations:
- Two pretty good periods went to waste with the awful third period and now the Winnipeg Jets find themselves chasing the series with dwindling confidence. You aren’t going to win many games when you spend almost the entire 3rd period short-handed.
- On a positive note, the 2nd line of Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Monahan, & Tyler Toffoli had the bounce back game they needed (72% of xG).
- In fact, the only Winnipeg forward unit that lost the expected goal battle at 5 on 5 was the Adam Lowry, Nino Niederreiter, & Mason Appleton trio and they barely fell short (49.4% xG). The Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, & Gabriel Vilardi unit was very good at creating offense (62% xG), while the 4th line of Vladislav Namestnikov, David Gustafsson, & Alex Iafallo did their part (57.2% xG).
- It was a better outing for Connor Hellebuyck for most of the game, but the 3rd period explosion ended up killing his stats (.872%/-1.28 Goals Saved Above Average).
- Something is wrong with Josh Morrissey as his skating is far from the elite level he is capable of. His lack of foot speed is impacting Winnipeg at both ends of the ice, hindering clean zone exits on Colorado’s dump ins and limiting his ability to get involved offensively without risking getting caught up ice.
- Statistically, holding the powerful Colorado Avalanche offense to 2.01 expected goals at 5 on 5 was exactly what the Winnipeg Jets needed to have a chance to win. They also fixed the other side of the puck as well by doing well offensively at even strength with 3.16 expected goals. Unfortunately, the poor start to the 3rd period caused the Jets’ fragile psyche to shatter and they reverted to scramble mode after that.
- I admit I turned off the game before the whole melee at the end of the game, so not sure what that all involved other than the skate cut Brenden Dillon sustained to his hand. Will have to see if that means Logan Stanley or Colin Miller will get into Game 4….or maybe even Ville Heinola?
Well, all confidence in the Winnipeg Jets winning this series has left my brain this morning, but logically being only down a game with four more potential contests on the horizon isn’t insurmountable. Our franchise showed some signs of the team they can be if they play the right way in the post-season, but not nearly enough. It will take some serious determination for the True North boys to turn things around and it all starts with the next game on Sunday afternoon.
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