With the series knotted and moving to Colorado, the Winnipeg Jets are still looking to discover their top-level game in the post-season. According to a brief search of the internet, when a series is tied at one heading into the the 3rd contest, the winner of the game increases their chances of winning the series by 15% (the same advantage as winning game 1). So, while the importance of the Jets coming out victorious over the Colorado Avalanche on Friday isn’t do or die, the boost to their mental state a win would bring would be quite worthwhile.
In particular, there are certain players who need to excel this evening in Denver if the True North franchise wants to become true Stanley Cup contenders.
First off, Winnipeg needs a whole lot more from their 2nd line of Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Monahan, & Tyler Toffoli in order to try to balance the offensive chances in the series. There have been some brief glimpses of Ehlers’ amazing speed and skating abilities, but the Danish winger needs to be more impactful every time he steps on the ice. Monahan has had a few chances from the low slot that he hasn’t been able to capitalize on, vaulting him into a tie with Adam Lowry & Kyle Connor for the highest expected goals rating through 2 games (0.6 xG). Since Toffoli has seemed slow & fairly invisible in the playoffs to date, it isn’t a good look for Fly to be tied with him in expected goals (0.2 xG). Without the last change, it’s possible Rick Bowness moves away from the line matching he attempted in Winnipeg, which might free the 2nd line from the Avs’ high-tempo forechecking 3rd line.
The whole defensive core really needs to improve their zone exit passes and the Jets’ forwards need to ensure they are in the correct places in order to limit the “panic” level from the back-end. With the news that Logan Stanley will likely be coming out for Nate Schmidt, the move to his natural side will hopefully allow Dylan Samberg to return to the boring, mistake-free hockey he is capable of. The Samberg-Schmidt duo controlled 55% of the expected goals during the regular season, so perhaps the change will be part of the solution.
Finally, while my last article helped us see that Connor Hellebuyck is not the sole reason the Winnipeg Jets have struggled in the playoffs, he definitely needs to elevate his performance if he wants to give his team a chance. There is not much Bucky can do to stop some of the goals that have gotten by him, but he has to start winning more of those 50-50 battles with opposing shooters (i.e. breakaways or shots from high danger areas). Being the prototypical positional goaltender in the NHL, Hellebuyck excels when he can see the game clearly and can predict where the next shot will come from in order to be in perfect position for the puck to hit him. Therefore, his teammates can help him out a lot by avoiding prolonged Avalanche pressure situations that give the opposition the chance to start planting players in front of the crease. And when they can’t stop a cycle from happening, it’s on the defensemen to clear the area around the blue paint to give our goalie a sight-line.
Not expecting any changes from the Colorado Avalanche tonight, other than Justus Annunen returning to the backup role after recovering from his illness. With an improved outing from starter Alexandar Georgiev under his belt, it’s imperative that the Jets test him early and often tonight to test his confidence level.
That’s all I got for this morning about the Winnipeg Jets…I really hope to see them play their “A” game in Colorado. If they do that, I will be somewhat happy even if they end up on the wrong end of the scoreboard.
In other news, the Manitoba Moose played a sloppy opening AHL playoff game that saw them fall behind after a 6-3 loss (rookies Nikita Chibrikov & Parker Ford picked up 1st AHL playoff goals and Brad Lambert had an assist). That put them on the edge of elimination entering last night’s contest and despite playing a much better game (heavily outshot the Texas Stars), they just couldn’t manage to beat the goalie and lost 2-0 in the end. Overall, a pretty good season by a young Moose squad, but I definitely had been hoping to witness my first Manitoba post-season series win. With no salary cap or roster limitations, it remains to be seen if players like Brad Lambert, Ville Heinola, Nikita Chibrikov, or Parker Ford will be called up by the Winnipeg Jets to join their playoff run.
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