Well, I had a bit of time today and in order to avoid getting tunnel vision on the Winnipeg Jets & Colorado Avalanche series, I figured that I would take a look at how our series compares to the other NHL playoff matches.
To try and get a grasp of which franchises are playing well, I thought I would see what the expected goals (xG) and actual goals statistics can tell us about how the teams are performing. I know there are sceptics about how accurate the xG stat is, so lets discover how well it is doing at predicting who should be winning each series:
EAST
Carolina Hurricanes vs. NY Islanders: 8.88 to 4.83 in xG for the Hurricanes in 2 games. CAR lead the series 2-0.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: 9.19 to 6.21 in xG for the Panthers in 2 games. FLA lead the series 2-0.
NY Rangers vs. Washington Capitals: 5.91 to 5.1 in xG for the Rangers in 2 games. NYR lead the series 2-0.
Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs: 13.95 to 10.87 for the Leafs in 3 games. BOS lead the series 2-1.
WEST
Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights: 6.36 to 5.81 for the Stars in 2 games. VEG lead the series 2-0.
Vancouver Canucks vs. Nashville Predators: 6.33 to 4.62 for the Canucks in 2 games. Series tied 1-1.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche: 9.32 to 4.91 for the Avalanche in 2 games. Series tied 1-1.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings: 8.36 to 5.76 for the Oilers in 2 games. Series tied 1-1.
Still very early on, but of the 5 series that have a clear leader at this point, the expected goals are only 3-2 at predicting which team would have the advantage. The two incorrect projections include Dallas being barely in front of Vegas, but Toronto is averaging 1 more expected goal per game than Boston for a much wider margin.
I believe that by looking at these stats separately and in comparison to each other, we should be able to spot which teams are getting lucky offensively, which squads are giving up way too many dangerous scoring opportunities, and many more things. So lets get our calculators or abaci out and start crunching some numbers….
Before we get to the actual goal numbers, let us review the expected goals statistic to see the level of quality scoring chances each franchise has produced (or their opponent’s have allowed) so far in the post-season.
Obvious this table is not a great thing for Winnipeg Jets’ fans to see, with their opponents topping the league in creating offense and the Jets themselves very close to the bottom. I’m sure it’s no surprise to anyone who has watched the games, but to actually see in numbers that Winnipeg is almost being doubled in expected goals per game tells us that it’s not only the sub-par play by Connor Hellebuyck that is causing our team issues.
Not much else popped out to me on this chart, though it shows that the Toronto Maple Leafs are creating all kinds of opportunities on the Boston Bruins’ goalies and that series is the only one with both teams in the top 8 in expected goals. So lets take a gander at the 5 on 5 expected goals to see how much that changes things…
For our franchise, the normal strength statistics are kinder to them, with the xG differential reducing from a 2.2 to 1.2 advantage for the Colorado Avalanche. Still not very good, but a bit better. It also shows how much the Toronto Maple Leafs have relied on the powerplay to create offense, as they fall from 2nd to 9th place. Another interesting thing is that the Los Angeles Kings are beating the Edmonton Oilers at even strength, so they obviously need to stay out of the box if they hope to advance to the next round. The Vancouver Canucks & Dallas Stars are both squads that seem to be playing very well at 5 on 5, as they have large advantages on their opponents (Predators/Knights).
Time to get back to reality and see at what rate the NHL’s playoff teams are actually scoring in 2023-24…
The Winnipeg Jets make a large jump up on this graphic, but with the Colorado Avalanche still ahead of them on the list the improvement is not good enough to make them favourites. I am not going to discuss this table much and will save that for the comparison between the expected & actual goals. However, when you see the lowest scoring squads on the list, some of them don’t surprise you (Capitals, Islanders) but others certainly do (Leafs, Stars, & Lightning).
Before I get to that comparison, let us take a quick look at the expected goal differential between the franchises involved in each playoff series…
Some of the top 4 biggest differences in xG aren’t a shock as they have won all the games (Hurricanes/Panthers), but this chart suggests that the Winnipeg Jets are highly fortunate to be even in their series. Most startling of all is the dominance by the Toronto Maple Leafs in creating high quality looks, despite them being on the wrong side of the win-loss column.
As for the other series, xG’s suggest the Edmonton Oilers & Vancouver Canucks should be up in their series, while the NY Rangers and Vegas Golden Knights appear to be fortunate to have 2-0 leads.
This final chart can tell us which teams are facing struggling goaltenders by highlighting the franchises that are getting more goals than the stats suggest they should against an average NHL goaltender (+ is bad, – is good).
Based solely on this graphic, the Winnipeg Jets are facing the worst goalies in the post-season by a fairly large margin. The LA Kings have been fortunate against Oilers’ tenders, but the reverse has also been the case. The New York Rangers seem to be lucky to be up 2-0 with the expected goal battle being fairly close through 2 games, but this chart suggests that may be due to under-performing masked men in the Capitals’ crease. The remaining positive ratings include the Colorado Avalanche scoring slightly more than they would against an average NHL goalie, the Nashville Predators taking advantage of Thatcher Demko’s injury by scoring more than they are expected, and the Boston Bruins pretty much facing league-average goaltending from Ilya Samsonov.
On the negative side, the Toronto Maple Leafs are being goalied by the Bruins’ tenders, while the Florida Panthers, TB Lightning, & Dallas Stars are also running up against hot goalies. The remaining teams (Canucks, Capitals, Islanders, & Hurricanes) have had to go up against slightly above average tending so far in the post-season.
Well, that is the end of my free time. Not a lot of things to inspire confidence for Winnipeg Jets’ fans, but interesting regardless. I guess it does show that there are other goaltenders playing worse than Connor Hellebuyck, but that really doesn’t make me feel any better.
What did you get from all these stats? Does it match the eye test of what you have witnessed this post-season? Would like to hear everyone’s thoughts on which teams have looked the best so far in the playoffs? The worst?
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