Simulating Kovi

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 5 min read |

I put together a series of simulations to see what spread of shooting production we might expect to see from average players and how the variability i...

Save Percentage On Ice/Off Ice

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 3 min read |

I opened another can of worms. In an earlier post, Scott Reynolds pointed out the discrepancy between on ice save percentage and off ice save percenta...

Defensive Contribution and QualComp/QualTeam

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 9 min read |

I think it makes sense to incorporate QualComp and QualTeam into DGVA.  It just doesn't make much difference. I had been pondering whether it hel...

Defensive Contribution

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 9 min read |

Having thoroughly messed up goaltender performance metrics, I lay awake a while last night pondering what to do next. I thought, "I'm a contr...

Replacement Level Goaltenders

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 5 min read |

Replacement goaltenders are not the same as threshold goaltenders. In baseball, VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player, is one metric used to assess t...

Comparing GGVT to GVA

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 32 min read |

For goaltenders, GGVT is the same as GVA. I've been looking at simulating goaltender performance and calculating GVA and GVT. Here, I look at actu...

Simulating GGVT

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 26 min read |

In a previous post, I looked at simulating GVA.  Here I simulate goaltender performance and calculate the goaltender portion of GVT. In a previous po...

Calculating GVT

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 22 min read |

Turns out it's harder than you think. In a previous post, I looked at simulating GVA. Up next, I plan to look at GVT. First, though, I needed to s...

Simulation of GVA and the estimation error of GVA

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 3 min read |

Sunny Mehta recently suggested that the observed range of goaltender save percentages over the course of a single season could essentially be duplicat...

Shootout Save Percentage

By GrantJenkins | Feb 16th 2019 | 24 min read |

The final chapter. I finish my look at save percentages to shootout data. Once again I calculated logits from the save percentages. In my other analys...