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Phoenix Coyotes: Back to Being Unconvinced

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If you haven't looked at the guerrilla scoring chances project this season, you don't know what you're missing. There are a few hundred games worth of recorded scoring chances out there, which puts us ever closer to knowing what NHL teams have known for 25 years.  The sites:

Montreal - Olivier Bouchard

Calgary - Kent Wilson

Edmonton - Dennis King (via Tyler Dellow)

Minnesota - Likens

Colorado - Scott Reynolds

Toronto - Name withheld because no one will admit to being willing to watch all of the Leafs games

For example, I pulled up 11 of Phoenix's games - four against Calgary, two each against Minnesota and Edmonton, and one apiece against Colorado, Toronto and Montreal, and looked at Phoenix's 5v5 scoring chances:

 

SCF SCA PCT SCF/G SCA/G
PHX 138 130 51.4 12.7 11.7

 

Godammit.  The numbers I had here before (PHX at 47.4%) were wrong. I double-counted the chances against in one game when I wrote this piece.  That will teach me to write at 1 o'clock in the morning.  When I wondered if "something else was going on," it was that I'm an idiot.

Anyways, those are some bad teams they're up against - only Colorado and Montreal are playoff teams, and if I wanted an opponent who I could outshoot, any of the six will do.  They get outchanced at about a 52% rate, so Phoenix is just slightly below-average in these games.  This system isn't perfect and it would be great if we had more than 11 games to work with.

Incidentally, this just shows you how incredibly important recording scoring chances can be.  Just for the record, here are each individual player's scoring chances for and against:

 

Player F A PCT
Stempniak 9 1 90.0
Morris 8 1 88.9
Wolski 8 1 88.9
Schneider 10 4 71.4
Lang 40 21 65.6
Doan 53 32 62.4
Yandle 57 38 60.0
Lombardi 46 33 58.2
Korpikoski 20 16 55.6
Jovanovski 30 26 53.6
Vandermeer 46 40 53.5
Pyatt 27 26 50.9
Bissonnette 10 10 50.0
Bryzgalov 119 121 49.6
Aucoin 44 45 49.4
Prucha 29 35 45.3
Upshall 22 27 44.9
Vrbata 32 40 44.4
Lepisto 30 40 42.9
Fiddler 28 38 42.4
Michalek 25 35 41.7
Hanzal 31 44 41.3
Winnik 22 33 40.0

 

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