As I had mentioned earlier, I decided to keep track of when the Winnipeg Jets are scoring and getting scored on this season. I broke up the season to date into 10 game sections, while also dividing each period into 4 five minute sections (A to D), then made note of where all the goals came from on a spreadsheet. I wasn’t looking for anything specific when I started out on this exercise, so I guess I’ll just outline what jumped out to me while making the data available for anyone who wants to do their own review.
If you are like me, the early part of the NHL’s 2023-24 season isn’t exactly clear in your memory so I figured that I would try to help us both out and take a look at how the Jets fared in the opening 10 games. Things weren’t exactly rosy out of the gates with Winnipeg starting out the season dropping 3 of 4 games, before picking up their play to end this section of matches and finishing with a 4-4-2 record (10 out of a possible 20 pts).
When it comes to goals in the early season, the outputs were fairly even in the first two periods (1st: 8 GF/9 GA & 2nd: 11 GF/11 GA), but Winnipeg gave up more than they scored in the 3rd (11 GF/14 GA) and overtime/shootout (1 GF/2 GA). With a goal differential of -5 in the opening 10 matches, the Jets’ mediocre record was due to early poor goaltending and the new players added in the off-season needing time to figure out Rick Bowness’ defensive systems. Averaging 3.1 goals for and 3.6 against to start the season, our team found the most success netting pucks early in the 2nd period (5 goals) and the last 10 minutes of the 3rd frame (4 goals in each 5 min set). The poorest defensive time frame in this group of games was easily the last 5 minutes of the 3rd period (9 goals allowed), which is 5 more than the next closest section (last 5 mins of 1st = 4 goals against) and as many goals as Winnipeg allowed in ten 1st periods. Despite not firing on all cylinders defensively at this point, the Jets did show signs of the future trend of being known for allowing few goals in the opening period, as this was when they played the best in front of their goaltenders (25% of opponents’ goals scored in 1st). If your eyes are really good or have zoom on your phone, then you can see on the tables below when all the goals were scored during this span.
Games 11 to 20 drastically improved the Winnipeg Jets’ outlook, as the team seemed to gel despite a key injury to Gabriel Vilardi keeping them from being full strength. Our squad rocketed into a fight for the Central Division title by pulling out wins in 8 of 10 games on the back on an impressive +17 goal differential (18 out of 20 pts). The Jets were getting scoring from the entire lineup during this span (averaging 4 goals per game) and their defensive game was stifling opponents’ offensives (2.3 goals against on average), making it a great time to be a Winnipeg fan.
The snipers on the team still had a hard time scoring in the 1st, once again netting 8 goals in 10 games, however they lit the lamp more often in the other frames (2nd = 15 & 3rd = 16 to account for 77.5% of the Jets’ total goals). Winnipeg spread out the scoring in data set #2, with six of the 5 minutes sections having at least 10% of the goals, though the highest amount of goals came during the 50:01 to 55:00 part of games (6 goals for 15%). When it came to stopping pucks in this unit, Connor Hellebuyck & Laurent Brossoit really stepped up their games in the 3rd period by only allowing a total of 4 goals against, which accounted for 17.39% of opponents’ goals (including only 1 goal allowed in their previous weak spot, the final 5 minutes of the game). Somewhat concerning, Winnipeg let in 13 goals in the 2nd period (56.52% of goals in the span) and it is fairly noticeable that the Jets gave up 15 goals against during the 20 minute span from 15:01 to 35:01 (which is a whopping 65.2% percent of goals allowed).
Looking at the entire 20 games to this point, the Winnipeg Jets best scoring sections are the first 5 minutes of the 2nd period and the 10-15 minute portion of the 3rd period (10 total goals each). Opposing snipers were finding the most luck in the last 5 minutes of the third period still (10 total goals), but the 5:01 to 10:00 minute unit (8 total goals) and the last 5 minutes of the 1st period (7 total goals) are not far behind. At this point of the season, Winnipeg is sporting a +12 goal differential and a 12-6-2 record, for 26 out of 40 points.
Working through the NHL’s schedule to get to game #30, the Jets were happy to get Vilardi back from injury, but also lost Kyle Connor to another knee injury halfway through this set of matches. Winnipeg was averaging 3.55 goals per game coming into this stretch and for the first time this season, chinks in the armor that is the Jets’ offense started to show. Including game #20 from the previous set, our squad had a three game spell where they could only pocket 3 goals (resulting in 3 straight losses) and averaged less than 3 goals per game for the first time this season in a 10 game set (28 goals for 2.8 goals per game). The decreased offense was masked by great defense & goaltending, as the Winnipeg Jets recorded a +8 goal differential and a 6-3-1 record in games 21 to 30 (13 out of 20 pts).
The number of goals scored changing didn’t alter the Jets’ habit of scoring less in the 1st period (7 goals) when compared to the other periods (2nd = 9 & 3rd = 12). Winnipeg leaned heavily on goals in the final minutes of the 1st & 3rd periods, netting 5 goals in each of these sections for a combined 35.7% of red lights. I did find it pretty startling that our boys failed to net even one goal in the opening 10 minutes of a game during this group of games, that is a serious stretch of slow starts. A big reason for the Jets’ success in this span of games was the team buy-in to two-way play, as they allowed an averaged of 2 goals against from enemy shooters. Our franchise continued to make it difficult for the opposition to score in the 1st period (4 total goals), yet they had better success in the later periods (2nd = 7 goals & 3rd = 8 goals). For the second straight section, Winnipeg won the goal differential battle in every period, but they continued to allow our rivals to score late in periods (4 goals in each of last 5 mins of the 2nd & 3rd).
After 30 games, the Winnipeg Jets had a 18-9-3 record and a +20 goal differential on the season. The True North franchise also had a +4 goal diff in 1st periods, +4 in 2nd periods, and +13 in 3rd periods (-1 in OT/SO).
The Winnipeg Jets put everything together in these next 10 matches, putting up their second highest goal total (38) and lowest goals against tally (15) on the way to a near-perfect 9-0-1 record. With a massive +23 goal differential resulting from top-level offense (3.8 goals per game) and a shut-down defense (1.5 goals per game), our squad was flirting with long-standing NHL records for consecutive games with 3 goals or less against. The Jets’ play also vaulted them into the President’s Trophy conversation, as they amassed 19 of 20 points in this section.
Winnipeg had gone 15 straight games without scoring a goal in the opening 5 minutes of a game, but that was finally ended in game #34 (slightly concerning that they only have 3 in the last 30 1st periods). During this span, the Jets had more luck in the 2nd & 3rd periods (16 goals each). Other than the lack of scoring in opening periods, there wasn’t much to complain about leading up to game #40. Winnipeg’s players were pocketing goals to open the final period (7), while empty netters allowed them to continue to do well in the final 5 minutes of the 3rd.
Stellar defense was a highlight of this stretch of games, allowing 4 goals against in the 1st & 2nd periods and that only increased to 6 goals in the 3rd when opponent’s were pressing for offense. If you wanted to nit-pick, the I guess you could complain about the 3 goals allowed in the final 5 minutes of 1st periods, but this stretch was pretty flawless.
Prior to their 41st match of the regular season, the Winnipeg Jets were peaking heading into the second half of the season (+43 goal differential).
The Jets were playing well as they entered the 2nd half of the year and it looked like it would only get better when Connor returned from his knee injury. But the hockey gods & goddesses had other plans, dealing Winnipeg another blow when Mark Scheifele pulled up lame with a groin injury. The franchise weathered the loss of two of their top line forwards, but it seemed losing their 1C was too much to bear. Despite starting off with a 3-1 record, this section of matches ended with a disappointing 4-5-1 record (that included a season long 5 game losing streak). The offense almost completely dried up (1.4 goals per game), but strong goaltending by Hellebuyck kept the goals against in a good range (2.3 goals against per game) as Winnipeg ended the set of games with a -9 goal differential.
What can I see from the spreadsheet below, other than the obvious – the Jets being snake-bitten (5 goals in each of 1st & 3rd, but only scored 3 times in 2nd). Up until this point, our players had lit the lamp fairly frequently in the middle period, but not in this grouping of games. Another thing is that the Peggers fell behind too often in games 41 to 50, allowing 9 goals against in the 1st. Winnipeg held their opponents to better numbers in the other periods, allowing a reasonable 6 in the 2nd and 7 in 3rd, but the frequency of high-danger chances against were higher than the opposition had earlier in the season. Based solely on the numbers, it appears that the Jets got better as the game went along, since they had a -4 goal differential in 1st periods, -3 in 2nd’s, and -2 in the final periods. Opponents also continued to take advantage of our team in the final 5 minutes of 1st periods (4 goals), but they also did well in the opening 5 minutes of 2nd’s & 3rd’s (3 goals each).
After 50 regular season games, the Winnipeg Jets are holding a 31-14-5 record to sit in the 3rd spot of the Central Division while their goal differential dropped to +34 due to the offensive drought.
Going back to do a quick comparison of the 5 sections of 10 game sets, you see that this year’s Winnipeg Jets have had two less than stellar (first 10 & last 10) groupings, two excellent stretches (second 10 and fourth 10), and one good (middle 10). The Peg had both offense and defense going for games 11-20 (40 GF/23 GA) & 31-40 (38 GF/15 GA), while their offense stuttered a bit between games 21-30 (28 goals scored), but the team defense was still there (20 goals against). While the first and last sections ended with similar records, the way Winnipeg got there was quite different. To open the season, the Jets had no problem scoring (31 goals for), but the team defense & goaltending were not up to the task (36 goals against). The most recent stretch ended up differently, as Winnipeg could barely score at all (15 total goals) but they didn’t allow a huge amount of goals against (23).
There is no doubt that Hellebuyck’s great play of late has resulted in the Jets giving up less goals against than they probably should have, but that is why Kevin Cheveldayoff decided to pay the American tender the big bucks. Despite that, I still think the above stats confirm the feeling I have that this last poor stretch was more about Winnipeg not scoring goals and not a return to the poor defensive performances of the past. Have said it before, but will say it again…I think there is less running around when the team gets pinned in their own end for long periods and I believe that stems from a belief that Bowness’ systems will pay off if they just do their part.
Before I wrap things up, we should take a look at how the overall stats look for all 50 games combined. I had previously asked the following questions in the comments section of a previous article, so now we can easily see the answers below.
1) What are the top 5 five minute sections for Jets’ scoring?
2) What are the top 5 five minute sections for opponents’ scoring?
3) Bonus question: Winnipeg has a negative goal differential for the year in only one of the 12 regulation time sections…can you pinpoint when opponents outscore the Jets?
To save you the time looking at the small numbers, the answers are as follows:
1) Winnipeg has scored the most goals in the final 5 minutes of games thanks in part to empty netters (24 goals for 15.89% of total). The Jets next best stretch is the final 5 minutes of 1st periods (16 goals for 10.6%), while the final three are tied: opening 5 minutes of 2nd periods, 10:01 to 15:00 of 2nd periods, and the opening 5 minutes of 3rd periods (15 goals for 9.93%). Or using the format I suggested in the post (3D/1D/2A/2C/3A).
2) Opponents also scored the most goals (18 for 15.38% of total goals) in the final minutes. The remaining top four are: Final 5 minutes of 1st periods (14 goals for 11.97%), opening 5 minutes of 2nd periods (12 for 10.26%), second 5 minutes of 2nd periods (11 goals for 9.4%), and a tie with 10 goals & 8.55% between the 30:01 to 35:00 (mid-late 2nd) and the opening 5 minutes of 3rd periods. Or using the format I suggested in the post (3D/1D/2A/2B/2C/3A).
3) The Winnipeg Jets have two 5 minutes sections with a negative goal differential after 50 games, but since the question indicated it had to be during regulation time, the answer is clearly the 5:01 to 10 minute stretch in 1st periods (-5). Or using the format I suggested in the post (1B). In overtimes and shoot-outs (for the sake of this review, a SO goal was counted as a goal), the Jets were outscored 5 to 3 for a -2 goal differential.
If you are wondering what that second last row of information is about, it is showing the percentage of Jets’ goals in the first 15 minutes, the next 20 minutes, and the final 25 minutes/overtime. I really didn’t spend a whole lot of time to see if there are other interesting things in the data. So if you notice something, make sure to share your thoughts in the comments section below.
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