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Recap: Washington Capitals @ Winnipeg Jets

Mar 11, 2024; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Winnipeg Jets right wing Tyler Toffoli (73) and Washington Capitals goaltender Charlie Lindgren (79) eye an incoming puck in the second period at Canada Life Centre. Mandatory Credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports

The Winnipeg Jets deployed their new players when they faced off against the Washington Capitals on Monday evening, hoping they would give the team a boost after a real bad performance on the weekend. Let’s see if Toffoli and Miller made a difference..

Things didn’t start out promising as the Capitals got a quality scoring chance on their opening shift, but the Jets quickly took over the game with a relentless forecheck leading to numerous cycle shifts. All the forward units spent time in the offensive zone getting looks on Washington’s Lindgren as Winnipeg jumped out to an early 8-1 shot lead. In fact, the visitors only managed to spend one shift in the Jets’ end in the first half of the period, and that was due to a Winnipeg turnover at their own blueline. At the mid-point of the frame, Lowry was battling for the puck along the boards just inside the Caps’ zone and managed to free the puck to Appleton. The oft-criticized winger made a beautiful cross-ice pass to find Pionk pinching with a step on his defender. The defenseman skated into the slot before firing a puck far-side to beat Lindgren, giving Winnipeg a 1-0 lead at the 10:05 mark. The game evened out a bit after this with both squads getting looks (Toffoli’s first good chance as a Jet and Carlson & Ovechkin testing Bucky). Neither squad could light the lamp before the period ended, but the Jets had the edge in the 1st frame as the stats/shot chart below displays (6 medium-high danger shots to 3 and 6.5 minutes of o-zone time to 2).

First Period MoneyPuck Stats:  Score: 1 to 0 for the Jets, shots 12 to 5 for the Jets, 67% Deserve To Win for the Jets, Expected Goals – all situations (1.29-0.56 WPG), & 5 on 5 (1.29-0.56 WPG)

Washington almost tied the game up on the 2nd’s opening shift when Carlson had a chance on a point shot and then the follow up rebound attempt. Winnipeg took control after this, with Morrissey & Ehlers creating a bunch of scoring opportunities, including Fly ringing one off the post from the low slot. The 4th line had an excellent cycle shift netting them a couple good looks, but the best was a nice slot deflection by Perfetti that found iron instead of twine. The 2nd line of Iafallo-Monahan-Toffoli followed up by buzzing around the Caps’ zone and finally were rewarded when Morrissey let a point shot go with both Toffoli & Iafallo providing screens. Thinking that may not be enough to beat Lindgren for a second time, Iafallo opted to deflect the shot to make sure, giving Winnipeg a 2-0 lead with 12 minutes to play. The Jets had another post when a DeMelo slapper almost added to their goal total, which was just one of many scoring chances for the home team in the remainder of the period (Connor stoned from low slot & Toffoli almost being sprung on a breakaway). Washington also had some looks to break their goose egg, but Hellebuyck made some nice saves, especially on a pair of deflections. MoneyPucks’ stats & shot chart tell us that the Jets were still dominating, but the Capitals did make headway towards evening things out.

After Two Periods MoneyPuck Stats:  Score: 2 to 0 for the Jets, shots 20 to 16 for the Jets, 61% Deserve to Win for the Jets, Expected Goals – all situations (2.02-1.43 WPG) & 5 on 5 (2.02-1.43 WPG)

For the 3rd straight period, Washington got a scoring chance on the period’s opening shift, but once again Hellebuyck was up to the test. A great backcheck by Scheifele denied another Capital rush and then Winnipeg picked up their pace once again. The Jets created a bunch of opportunities with more cycle shifts in the offensive zone, but were unable to extend their lead. The officials tried to give Washington a way back in the game when a love tap by Miller was called a slash, but despite spending the majority of time in the the Jets’ end, the Caps couldn’t solve Bucky with the man-advantage. The home team started to get counter-attacks as the visitors pushed for offense, allowing Scheifele and Ehlers to break out on a 2 on 1. Lindgren made a great stop on that attempt, but Winnipeg was right back on another odd-man rush and this time Connor was able to finish the Scheifele pass to make the game 3-0. The Jets had plenty of chances to add to their goal total in the remaining 10 minutes (Perfetti & Scheifele send pucks off posts and Toffoli lets one rip from the left face-off circle). The officials gave our squad a late powerplay look, but they couldn’t capitalize (though we did see Miller will be deployed on the 2nd unit). MoneyPuck’s info below will show that Winnipeg played Bowness’ system well, limiting high danger looks and suppressing expected goals to under 2.

After Three Periods MoneyPuck Stats:  80% Deserve to Win for the Jets, Expected Goals – all situations (3.63-1.61 WPG) & 5 on 5 (3.15-1.60 WPG)

FINAL SCORE:  WINNIPEG JETS  3   WASHINGTON CAPITALS  0 

SHOTS: WINNIPEG JETS  29   WASHINGTON CAPITALS  23 

Game Observations:

  • The best place to start is probably with Connor Hellebuyck’s performance last night, as he netted his 4th shutout of the season & 36th of his career against Washington. Bucky wasn’t overly busy, facing just 23 shots (6 medium/1 high danger) to finish with 1.61 Goals Saved Above Average for the night’s work.
  • The Winnipeg Jets as a team won 63.5% of face-offs versus the Capitals, with Sean Monahan (73%) and Mark Scheifele (68%) leading the charge.
  • Despite playing his best game in a while, young Cole Perfetti just couldn’t catch a break last night, as he deflected two point shots off posts, coming oh-so-close to ending his scoring slump.
  • Tyler Toffoli was noticeable in his first game for Winnipeg, putting 3 shots on the Caps’ goalie and ending with a +2 rating. While he didn’t end up with a point, the new winger was instrumental in two of the Jets’ goals by taking the eyes away from the netminder.
  • Colin Miller also looked solid in his debut on a pairing with Dylan Samberg. The duo ended up with 49.9% of expected goals and Winnipeg outshot Washington 6 to 3 when they were on the ice.
  • The Jets’ forwards had a great night in terms of expected goals, with the 1st line leading the way with 69.6% (13-10 shots), the 3rd was next with 66.4% (13-10 shots), then the 2nd unit with 64.7% (7-3 shots), and finally the 4th line with 58.8% (9-4 shots).
  • I have been impressed with Mason Appleton’s passing abilities lately, as the American winger picked up his 5th helper in the last 5 games. The majority of those assists were of the primary sort and came off dishes to players in quality scoring areas. While we would all love to see him pocket goals of his own more often, the defensive play and point production he has this season is close to where you want a 3rd liners to be (on pace for 38 pts).

With the win last night, our squad pulls to within 2 points of the Central Division leading Dallas Stars. The upcoming schedule gets a bit easier for the Winnipeg Jets, but not before they have to deal with the hottest team in the NHL first.

NEXT GAME:  Nashville Predators @ Winnipeg Jets – Wednesday, March 13th @ 6:30 pm Central

After that clash against their division rivals, the Jets will get to take on a couple of bottom-dwelling franchises (Anaheim & Columbus). When looking at the NHL’s standings, I noticed that the Chicago Blackhawks have become the first team to be officially eliminated from the playoffs.

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