Well, after tackling the Eastern Conference last night, I am up to my armpits in Western Conference data on a sunny Manitoba morning. With a firm plan of attack for this article, I am hopeful the words just pour out and I am able to get the article posted as early as possible. So, better stop procrastinating and get to it….off to the West!!
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
Dallas Stars (52-21-9) vs Vegas Golden Knights (45-29-8)
The Dallas Stars ended the year with 113 pts and finished just short of the President Trophy winning NY Rangers for best record in the National Hockey League (also 2nd best in goal differential). Coming off a Stanley Cup victory, the Vegas Golden Knights season didn’t go as planned as they limped into the playoffs to grab the West’s final wildcard spot. The Stars have the advantage in goals scored (3rd to 12th in NHL), goals allowed (8th to 12th in NHL), and special teams based on the regular season stats, so the Knights could have a hard time escaping the 1st round on their quest to win back to back championships. But despite all those pretty stats for Dallas, they haven’t managed to beat Vegas in three attempts this year.
Knights up 3-0 in season series: Oct 17th: 3-2 (SO) VEG in VEG/Nov 22nd: 2-1 (OT) VEG in DAL/Dec 9th: 6-1 VEG in DAL
Going to ESPN for graphics about the Stars & Knights’ team/goalie stats, we see that both franchises have put up similar numbers offensively, defensively, and on special teams.
In-Season Additions:
Dallas: Christopher Tanev (CGY)
Vegas: Anthony Mantha (WSH), Noah Hanifin (CGY) & Tomas Hertl (SJ)
Since the Dallas Stars are the NHL’s 3rd highest scoring franchise, I guess it isn’t surprising that they have many offensive weapons at their disposal, but the vast number of them this season is still shocking. Take a gander at this list: Jason Robertson (80 pts), Joe Pavelski (67 pts), Roope Hintz (65 pts), Wyatt Johnston (65 pts), Matt Duchene (65 pts), Jamie Benn (60 pts), Miro Heiskanen (54 pts), Mason Marchment (53 pts), Tyler Seguin (52 pts), & Thomas Harley (47 pts). With 10 players over the 40 pt mark, the team from Texas has impressive depth and that should pay dividends in the post-season. Jake Oettinger has put up NHL average numbers this season in net for the Stars, but definitely has the ability to rise the level of play much higher.
Injuries to some of the star Vegas Golden Knights players have disrupted their offense enough to finish near the middle of the pack in the standings and in terms of putting pucks in nets. However, with their aggressive use of the LTIR loop-hole, the Knights will be a very different team come playoff time. With Mark Stone (53 pts) and Thomas Hertl (4 pts) just returning from injury joining fellow scorers like Jonathan Marchessault (69 pts), Jack Eichel (68 pts), William Karlsson (60 pts), & Chandler Stephenson (51 pts), Vegas has the potential to score enough to beat anyone. The Knights have a pair of tenders to pick from, with last year’s Stanley Cup hero Adin Hill struggling a bit near the end of the season and young Logan Thompson playing well.
There aren’t many weaknesses when it comes to the Dallas Stars roster and playing style, so if they get the goaltending to go along with those strengths they really could emerge as one of the Western Conference’s toughest squads to beat. Vegas captured lightning in a bottle last post-season with a frenetic forecheck that helped them jump out to early leads on route to picking up shiny new Cup rings. Can they do it again? Or will the constant high-stake gambles fail to pay off in 2023-24?
Vancouver Canucks (50-23-9) vs Nashville Predators (47-30-5)
The Vancouver Canucks had an amazing turn-around this season, finishing 6th in the NHL in 2023-24 after being the 10th worst team last year. The Nashville Predators brought in Barry Trotz as the new GM and instead of the rebuilding season, his squad put together a very long & impressive hot streak to easily secure one of the West’s two wildcard spots. The Nucks’ have a large advantage when it comes to goal differential, with the NHL’s 6th best rating (+56) being much better than the Preds’ 3rd worst of the playoff teams (+21).
Canucks up 3-0 in season series: Oct 24th: 3-2 VAN in NSH/Oct 31st: 5-2 VAN in VAN/Dec 19th: 5-2 VAN in NSH
Here is what ESPN has to say about the match up’s team stats & masked men:
In-Season Additions:
Vancouver: Nikita Zadorov (CGY), Mark Friedman (PIT), & Elias Lindholm (CGY)
Nashville: Anthony Beauvillier (CHI) & Jason Zucker (ARZ)
The Canucks have four main guys leading the charge offensively, with JT Miller putting up a career-high 103 pts to be the cream of the group. Young Quinn Hughes also put up new bests in goals, assists, and points (92), while Elias Pettersson (89 pts) and Brock Boeser (73 pts) round out Vancouver’s best scorers. Vancouver gets scoring from all the forward units, as they have 6 other skaters with at least 10 goals this season. Elias Lindholm hasn’t worked out as well as they had hoped (12 pts in 26 gms), but his defensive skills will always come in handy in the playoffs, even if his offense doesn’t return.
The Nashville Predators also have 4 players on top of their scoring chart – Filip Forsberg (94 pts), Roman Josi (85 pts), Gustav Nyquist (75 pts), & Ryan O’Reilly (69 pts) – though they too rely on goals from throughout the roster to pick up wins.
The Canucks’ Thatcher Demko has played very well this year (.918%) and if he can continue to provide his team consistent tending in the playoffs, they have a good shot at making the 2nd round. Predators’ goalie Juuse Saros’ .906 save percentage this season is far from his normal elite standards (b/w .914% to .927%), so it is always possible that he returns to form and becomes a thorn in the Stars’ side. A part of me thinks Nashville may have peaked too early to win the series, but I also recall how great their forecheck looked against Winnipeg’s defense and know anything is possible.
Edmonton Oilers (49-27-6) vs Los Angeles Kings (44-27-11)
Our next series sees the 9th placed Edmonton Oilers hosting the 12th placed Los Angeles Kings in a Pacific Division clash. The Oilers had a roller-coaster season after a horrendous start to the year, but have shown their elite goal scoring abilities (4th in GF in NHL). The Kings focus more on their defensive systems to provide wins (3rd best GA’s) since their offense isn’t terribly threatening (16th in GF’s in NHL). Both franchises have great team goal differentials (+57 for EDM & +41 for LA), so the series could come down to unproven playoff goaltender Stuart Skinner and a resurgent Cam Talbot.
Oilers up 3-1 in season series: Dec 30th: 3-2 (SO) EDM in LA/Feb 10th: 4-0 LA in LA/Feb 26th: 4-2 EDM in EDM/March 28th: 4-1 EDM in EDM
The Team Stats & Goaltender Comparison from ESPN tell us the Kings have an advantage in net and on the penalty kill, but the Oilers are a highly skilled team at even strength and on the powerplay.
In-Season Additions:
Edmonton: Adam Henrique (ANA), Sam Carrick (ANA), & Troy Stetcher (ARZ)
Los Angeles: none
Of course, the Edmonton Oilers had amazing seasons from Connor McDavid (132 pts for 3rd best in NHL) and Leon Draisaitl (106 pts for 7th best), but they also received offense from Zach Hyman (77 pts), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (67 pts), Mattias Ekholm (45 pts), and Evander Kane (44 pts). Perhaps the most surprising Oiler in 2023-24 was defenseman Evan Bouchard, who doubled his previous best point total in his 3rd NHL season (82 pts). After Jack Campbell imploded (.873%) early in the season, Edmonton has relied on Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard for near-league average goaltending over the rest of the year.
The LA Kings have a couple tiers in their team scoring, with Adrian Kempe (75 pts), Kevin Fiala (73 pts), and Anze Kopitar (70 pts) in the top group. The second level includes Trevor Moore (57 pts), Quinton Byfield (55 pts), Drew Doughty (50 pts), Phillip Danault (47 pts), & the disappointing Pierre-Luc Dubois (40 pts). Los Angeles has received above average tending this season from Cam Talbot and former Winnipeg Jet David Rittich, so they definitely have the edge on paper in that category.
Edmonton didn’t have too much trouble with Los Angeles this season, but when the officials start calling only the most egregious infractions in the playoffs, the more defensive-minded team can get the edge they need to pull out the upset. The Kings will probably need some of their underperforming players to really pick up their games if they want to win (looking at you PLD) because Edmonton is always capable of taking advantage of opponents who aren’t playing at top speed.
Winnipeg Jets (52-24-6) vs Colorado Avalanche (50-25-7)
Saving the best for last, now we get to our Winnipeg Jets, who finished the season in 4th place with 110 points and the William Jennings Trophy for least goals allowed. The Colorado Avalanche didn’t finish far behind though, as their 107 pts was good enough for 8th place in the NHL. Both franchises are adept at outscoring opponents, with the Jets (+60) and Avalanche (+50) through 82 games, but Colorado holds a key advantage in the special teams category (especially the PP). The two Central Division rivals met three times in the regular season, with Winnipeg sweeping the contests by outscoring Colorado 17 to 4.
Jets up 3-0 in season series: Dec 7th: 4-2 WPG in COL/Dec 16th: 6-2 WPG in WPG/Apr 13th: 7-0 WPG in COL
When you check out ESPN’s graphics below, you will likely notice the Jets’ biggest advantages come via team defense (just 2.42 goals against per game) and their award-winning goaltending. Hopefully Winnipeg can break the trend of Jennings’ winners not playing at an elite level in the post-season.
In-Season Additions:
Winnipeg: Sean Monahan (MTL), Tyler Toffoli (NJ), & Colin Miller (NJ)
Colorado: Casey Mittelstadt (BUF), Sean Walker (PHI), Brandon Duhaime (MIN), Yakov Trenin (NSH), & Caleb Jones (CAR)
The Winnipeg Jets had four players that passed the 60 pt mark with the franchise this season, Mark Scheifele (72 pts), Josh Morrissey (69 pts), Nikolaj Ehlers (61 pts), & Kyle Connor (61 pts). Here is the full list of Winnipeg point getters from ESPN:
The Jets have received outstanding goaltending this season from both starter Connor Hellebuyck and backup Laurent Brossoit, helping the franchise to its first ever William Jennings trophy. They also boast one of the NHL’s best 3rd lines with captain Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, & Nino Niederreiter providing consistent offensive zone time against opponents’ top six units. The 2nd trio of Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Monahan, & Tyler Toffoli has been firing on all cylinders recently and head coach Rick Bowness’ biggest concern has to be whether his top unit of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, & Gabriel Vilardi can actually outscore their opponents despite consistently losing the expected goals battle. With winger Morgan Barron out for at least one playoff game, it remains to be seen whether a great defensive option (David Gustafsson) or more scoring potential (Cole Perfetti) will fill the void.
The Colorado Avalanche have a trio of players providing a large chunk of their offense, with Nathan MacKinnon finishing in 2nd place with 140 pts, Mikko Rantanen ending up in 8th with 104 pts, and Cale Makar’s 90 pts giving him the 2nd most by a defenseman this year. Secondary scorers like Jonathan Drouin (56 pts), Valeri Nichushkin (53 pts), Devon Toews (50 pts), & Ross Colton (40 pts) add to the Avs’ offensive capabilities, but the team’s biggest weakness is definitely in the crease. Alexander Georgiev has had a nightmarish season (.897%) after a great first season in Colorado (.919%), but their only other option is an unproven 24 yr old. The 6’4″ Justus Annunen has put up impressive numbers this season (.928%), but he only has 14 career NHL games under his belt and absolutely no playoff experience at this level. The Avalanche will also have to do without Drouin for their series against the Jets, as he is out with a lower body injury.
Despite the season series clearly going Winnipeg’s way, I can’t say that I am confident that the Jets will come out victorious. What I do know is that the Winnipeg Jets have the tools, the system, and the goaltending to frustrate any opponent. So if they stick to the plan and don’t make any drastic alterations in the face of an early deficit, the True North boys could really give the White Out crowds something to cheer about. On the other side of the coin, no one will be shocked if the Colorado Avalanche step up their game to make another run at Lord Stanley’s Cup. Will the Jets be able to contain the Avs’ top threats while consistently taking advantage of enough of their opportunities to outscore Colorado? Can the Avalanche get the goaltending they need to allow their elite offensive weapons to win them the series?
Well, that wraps up my preview of all eight of the NHL’s post-season series and with that knowledge in hand, you may want to join in on Padre’s NHL Playoff Bracket Challenge to show off your prognostic skills. By following the link below and joining the Arctic Ice Hockey league, you will get the chance to show how your hockey knowledge stacks up to your fellow AIHers. I haven’t done mine yet, nor really checked it out fully, but did notice that you could join an official Winnipeg Jets bracket as well, with the chance of winning a jersey (have to live within 75 kms of the Peg to claim prize…but don’t worry, everyone can move into my place) 😉
AIH League “Arctic Ice Whiteout“
password: AIH2024
https://bracketchallenge.nhl.com/en/leagues/18081
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