Well, after taking a few days off to recharge and enjoy watching the Winnipeg Jets’ final two games as a casual fan, I am back in the BigOl’JetAirliner cockpit for a flyover of the post-season landscape.
The National Hockey League completed yet another regular season when the 1,312th contest grudgingly ended late last night with a LA Kings overtime victory. That match finally solidified the NHL’s playoff schedule, allowing us to take a full look at what hockey’s best part of the year has in store for us.
With the action starting on Saturday afternoon, we don’t have a lot of time to make our picks in the NHL’s playoff bracket, so lets check out what it looks like (courtesy of NHL.com):
Since Gary Bettman & company opted to schedule the Eastern Conference to start the post-season, we might as well start our preview there.
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
New York Rangers (55-23-4) vs Washington Capitals (40-31-11)
The NY Rangers had the best record in the regular season culminating in 114 points and the President’s Trophy, while the Washington Capitals snuck into the post-season despite having the worst team goal differential of any qualifying franchise (-37). Another big disparity between the squads is the Rangers’ league-leading 30-11-0 record at Madison Square compared to the Capitals’ 18-19-4 record on the road. Yet, when you look at how the two teams have done head-to-head, the Rangers’ advantage doesn’t seem as apparent in real life.
Season series is tied 2-2: Dec 9th: 4-0 WSH @ WSH/Dec 27th: 5-1 NYR @ NY/Jan 13th: 3-2 WSH @ WSH/Jan 14th: 2-1 NYR @ NY
However, when you check out ESPN’s graphics below, it certainly becomes clear why New York has the better record this season.
In-Season Additions:
New York: Alexander Wennberg (SEA), Jack Roslovic (CBJ), Nic Petan (MIN), & Chad Ruhwedel (PIT)
Washington: none
Artemi Panarin has always been a great hockey player, finishing in the low 30’s for goals and flirting with 100 pt seasons on multiple occasions. But the Russian winger has reached a whole different stratosphere in 23-24 as he just fell short of the 50 goal mark (49) and easily put up his career-high in points (120 – 4th in NHL). Other key skaters for the New York Rangers include Vincent Trocheck (77 pts), Chris Kreider (75 pts), Adam Fox (73 pts), Mika Zibanejad (72 pts), and a breakout year for Alexis Lafreniere (57 pts).
The Washington Capitals weren’t a high scoring franchise this year, with only three players clearing the 50 point mark (Dylan Strome – 67 pts, Alex Ovechkin – 65 pts, and John Carlson – 52 pts). The Caps do have Sonny Milano, who out of NHLers with at least 10 games, has the league’s best shooting percentage with an amazing 30% over 49 games (15 goals) and Anthony Mantha (20.4%) is also in the top 10.
Even with Igor Shesterkin playing beneath his typical amazing level for portions of the season, you would have to give the boys from Manhattan the advantage in net. When you combine that with New York’s potent offense and amazing special teams, I think Washington will have their work cut out for them in the best of 7 series.
Florida Panthers (52-24-6) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (45-29-8)
The Florida Panthers gained home-ice advantage by finishing 3rd in the Eastern Conference with 110 pts and the second least goals against in the regular season (200), while the Tampa Bay Lightning ended up in 6th place with 98 pts. When it comes to goal scoring though, it is the Bolts who light more lamps (291 for a top 5 finish in the NHL) when compared to the Cats (268 for 11th in league). Paul Maurice had his Panthers playing well at both sides of the ice in 2023-24, helping to them to an NHL-best +68 goal differential.
Panthers up 2-1 in season series: Dec 27th: 3-2 FLA @ TB/Feb 17th: 9-2 FLA @ TB/March 16th: 5-3 TB @ FLA
Looking at ESPN’s graphics for team and goaltending statistics
In-Season Additions:
Florida: Vladimir Tarasenko (OTT), Kyle Okposo (BUF), & Magnus Hellberg (PIT)
Tampa Bay: Anthony Duclair (SJ) & Matt Dumba (ARZ)
Florida has the NHL’s 12th leading scorer with Sam Reinhart’s career-high 94 pts, along with other deadly scorers like Matthew Tkachuk (88 pts), Aleksander Barkov (80 pts), & Carter Verhaeghe (72 pts). While the Panthers’ key defensemen have missed time this season, both Brandon Montour (33 pts in 66 gms) and Aaron Ekblad (18 pts in 51 gms) will be in the lineup when the post-season begins. Sergei Bobrovsky has also put up his best save percentage (.915%) since the 2017-18 regular season (.921%), so he seems to be on his game this year.
The Tampa Bay Lightning’s clear superstar this season has been Nikita Kucherov, who put up a career-best 144 pts to lead the NHL in 2023-24 and win the Art Ross Trophy. The other main scoring options for the Bolts include Brayden Point (90 pts), Steven Stamkos (81 pts), Victor Hedman (76 pts), & Brandon Hagel (75 pts). Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is in unfamiliar territory as his squad opens up the playoffs, coming off his worst ever regular season save percentage (.900%) and his 2nd lowest win total (30) as a starter in Tampa.
The Battle of Florida should be a good one, with both franchises featuring skilled special teams units (TB has NHL’s best PP conversion rate at 28.6%) and good goaltenders in the creases. The Panthers have been stingy on defense this season and should have the edge if they can limit the damage from the Lightning’s top six.
Carolina Hurricanes (52-23-7) vs New York Islanders (39-27-16)
The Carolina Hurricanes finished the regular season with the NHL’s 3rd best record (111 pts) and will be taking on the 15th place NY Islanders in the opening round. The Canes are one of 4 NHL franchises to finish above the +60 goal differential mark (+63), while the Isles have the second worst ranking for playoff teams in that category (-17). Things continue to look rosy for Carolina when you get to special teams too, as they have the NHL’s 2nd best PP and top penalty killing units. While the Islanders have a decent PP rating (20.3%), their PKers leave a lot to be desired (71.5%).
Hurricanes up 3-1 in season series: Nov 4th: 4-3 (OT) CAR @ NY/Nov 30th: 5-4 (OT) NYI @ CAR/Dec 23rd: 5-4 NYI @ CAR/Mar 19th: 4-1 CAR @ NY
I will once again hit up ESPN for an overall look at team-play and tending with the following graphics:
In-Season Additions:
Carolina: Jake Guentzel (PIT), Ty Smith (PIT), & Evgeny Kuznetsov (WSH)
New York: Robert Bortuzzo (STL)
The Hurricanes leading scorer, Sebastian Aho, sits in a tie for 18th in NHL scoring with 89 pts, but they can also rely on others like Seth Jarvis (67 pts), Martin Necas (53 pts), Teuvo Teravainen (53 pts), Andrei Svechnikov (52 pts), and defenders Brady Skjei (47 pts) & Brent Burns (43 pts). Carolina has had to deal with goalie injuries throughout the season and mainly have used young Pyotr Kochetkov (.911%), but might be getting Frederik Andersen (.932%) back to full health at the right time.
The Long Islanders aren’t a high scoring squad, but they can always depend on players like Mathew Barzal (80 pts), Brock Nelson (69 pts), Bo Horvat (68 pts), & Kyle Palmieri (54 pts) to chip in. While defender Noah Dobson has had strong seasons in the past (52 & 49 pts in past two years), the former 1st round pick reached new levels in 2023-24 with 70 pts in 78 games. Starting goaltender Ilya Sorokin’s numbers this year (.909%) haven’t been up to his typical standard (.918 to .925% in first 3 seasons) but the Russian has the ability to steal a series when playing at his best.
All things considered, I don’t think there is any doubt that Carolina is coming in as the favourite and it would probably take the second biggest upset of the post-season for New York to walk away with a win. But games aren’t decided on paper and I’m sure the Islanders will do their best to shock the higher ranked Hurricanes.
Boston Bruins (47-20-15) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (46-26-10)
For a while there it looked like Boston was going to win back-to-back President’s Trophies despite losing two key players to retirement, but they still ended up finishing well (in a tie for 6th) with 109 pts. The Toronto Maple Leafs were near the top of the league all season and after 82 games found themselves in the 10th spot in the NHL with 102 pts. The closest series so far in terms of goal differential, with the Bruins’ +43 rating good enough for 9th and the Leafs’ +40 the NHL’s 11th best rating.
Bruins up 4-0 in season series: Nov 2nd: 3-2 (SO) BOS @ BOS/Dec 2nd: 4-3 (OT) BOS @ TOR/Mar 4th: 4-1 BOS @ TOR/Mar 7th: 4-1 BOS @ BOS
Going to ESPN for one final look at the team & goaltending stats
In-Season Additions:
Boston: Patrick Maroon (MIN) & Andrew Peeke (CBJ)
Toronto: Ilya Lyubushkin (ANA), Joel Edmundson (WSH), & Connor Dewar (MIN)
David Pastrnak’s 110 pts leads the way for the Boston Bruins this season, the second straight year with at least that many points. Other key scorers include Brad Marchand (67 pts), Charlie Coyle (60 pts), Pavel Zacha (59 pts), & Charlie McAvoy (47 pts). The coaching staff have used Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark evenly throughout the regular season and both have put up solid numbers and it will be interesting to see if they continue to rotate tenders in the playoffs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs witnessed both William Nylander and Auston Matthews having career seasons in 2023-24. Nylander beat his previous best by 11 pts to finish with 98 on the season (10th in NHL), while Matthews made a serious run at the rarely seen 70 goal season. The Maple Leafs also can expect offense from players like Mitch Marner (85 pts), John Tavares (65 pts), Morgan Rielly (58 pts), Max Domi (47 pts), & Tyler Bertuzzi (43 pts). As has been the case recently for Toronto, how far they go in the playoffs will largely depend on their inconsistent goaltending.
The Boston Bruins have owned the season series, but will they be able to carry that over to the playoffs? The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of two franchises to clear the 300 goal mark and their 303 goals scored is one shy of the Winnipeg Jets’ 1st round opponents (Colorado Avalanche). So with that kind of offense at their disposal, it should be an interesting series that I probably wouldn’t lay money on one way or the other (despite the Leafs’ lack of post-season success).
Well, that finally wraps up our tour of the Eastern Conference playoff series and if you think you know which teams are going to win and which will lose, then you may want to join in on Padre’s NHL Playoff Bracket Challenge to show off your knowledge. By following the link below and joining the Arctic Ice Hockey league, you will get the chance to show how your hockey knowledge stacks up to your fellow AIHers. I haven’t done mine yet, nor really checked it out fully, but did notice that you could join an official Winnipeg Jets bracket as well, with the chance of winning a jersey. Thought I saw a Moose one too, but didn’t see if it had a prize involved. Take a peek if you’re interested.
AIH League “Arctic Ice Whiteout“
password: AIH2024
https://bracketchallenge.nhl.com/en/leagues/18081
I haven’t even started on the Western Conference, but hoping that a stronger knowledge of the teams and already determining the format of the article will speed up the second review. Hope to have it up before the afternoon games start on Saturday.
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