With the news that the Winnipeg Jets have re-signed goaltender Connor Hellebuyck and center Mark Scheifele to identical $8.5M contracts, I got to wondering how those decisions will impact next year’s salary cap.
Using the helpful site CapFriendly to take a look at the 2024-25 cap situation, I discovered that the team has their roster already 65% filled with signed players. Here is how next season’s Jets’ roster would look with players under contract slotted in:
CONNOR / SCHEIFELE / VILARDI
EHLERS / ????? / ?????
IAFALLO / LOWRY / APPLETON
BARRON / KUPARI / NAMESTNIKOV
????? / ?????
MORRISSEY / ?????
SAMBERG / PIONK
????? / SCHMIDT
?????
HELLEBUYCK
?????
With those 15 NHL players signed, Kevin Cheveldayoff will have $17,927,976 left to spend based on the projected salary cap limit of $87,500,000 (including Blake Wheeler’s $2.75M buyout cap penalty being on the books for a final season). Fortunately, only 5 players are signed with Winnipeg beyond 2024-25 (Kyle Connor, Adam Lowry, Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, & Connor Hellebuyck), so that gives the front office a lot of flexibility since contracts with one year remaining will be easier to move in the off-season.
The highest priority on Chevy’s upcoming off-season To Do list is undoubtedly getting restricted free agent (RFA) Cole Perfetti signed to fill one of those top 6 openings. Without knowing how Perfetti does this season or whether the Jets plan to bridge or go long-term, it is really too early to project his contract value. But by the end of this review, we should have an idea of how much cap space could be available to get his name on a new deal.
Another pending RFA is probably near the top of the GM’s list too. Ville Heinola’s 2024-25 value has yet to be determined, but even if he gets serious NHL time this season, I can’t see his contract being that high ($2M – $3M). Chevy also has two other pending RFA defensemen to make decisions on, Logan Stanley & Declan Chisholm. Neither option would hurt the GM’s wallet as a 7th defenseman (under $1.5M), so definitely could be in play.
If you slot those players into Winnipeg’s potential lineup, it would look like this:
CONNOR / SCHEIFELE / VILARDI
EHLERS / PERFETTI / ?????
IAFALLO / LOWRY / APPLETON
BARRON / KUPARI / NAMESTNIKOV
????? / ?????
MORRISSEY / ?????
SAMBERG / PIONK
HEINOLA / SCHMIDT
STANLEY or CHISHOLM
HELLEBUYCK
?????
Another big part of Chevy’s upcoming off-season will revolve around the four upcoming unrestricted free agents (UFAs). It is possible that none of those players will be around by next off-season, as all of them could be attractive at the trade deadline if this season goes in the tank. But for the sake of the review, let’s say it’s still an option for the Jets to re-sign them all. This season, they combine for $13.65M in salary and that might be too much for Winnipeg to deal with as it would leave $4,277,976 left to re-sign Perfetti & one of Heinola/Stanley/Chisholm.
Looking at the UFAs individually, while Nino Niederreiter has said that he would like to stay in Winnipeg beyond this year and he could fill the empty top 6 role like he is this season, would that really be the best decision? The Swiss forward is currently playing for $4M per season and I don’t think he would cost much more than that to retain (up to $5M unless he lights things up this year). The Jets will also have upcoming RFA David Gustafsson to consider for one of the open forward slots (next contract up to $1M), but Chevy could have other options as well. Management could have a bunch of young forwards that will be ready to break into the NHL next year, such as Brad Lambert, Chaz Lucius, Rutger McGroarty, & Colby Barlow. Personally, I think high-end prospects need to break into the NHL by playing in the top 9 and it would appear that there will only be two slots available for these high draft picks in 2024-25: Niederreiter’s possible 2nd line slot and Mason Appleton’s 3rd line slot. I guess it’s possible that Alex Iafallo could also get knocked down to the 4th line like Appleton, opening up another top 9 position. But there is also the possibility that the fourth liners Morgan Barron, Rasmus Kupari, and Vladislav Namestnikov play their way into greater roles next season.
Moving onto the goaltending position, whether the Winnipeg Jets decide to re-sign Laurent Brossoit will largely depend on the amount of cap space left after getting everything else done. The current back up is earning $1.75M this year and it seems safe to assume that he could be retained for close to the same amount (up to a max $2.5M). Next season might be too early to hope for high-end goalie prospects like Domenic DiVincentiis and Thomas Milic to be NHL ready, but there is a chance that upcoming RFA Oskari Salminen takes a big step forward this year with the Manitoba Moose. A final option could be someone like Collin Delia or another bargain bin UFA for under $1.5M.
The final two pending UFAs in the upcoming off-season are defensemen Brendan Dillon and Dylan DeMelo, who combined for $6.9M in salary this year. When it comes to projecting contracts for the two defensemen, the deals could be in the $3.5M to $4.5M range. While I enjoy Dillon’s physical style of play, I personally think DeMelo may be the more important for Winnipeg to re-sign. The right-handed defender has been a long-time partner of Morrissey on the first pairing and the Jets’ replacement options may be limited. I certainly can’t see Nate Schmidt replacing him and Neal Pionk has to be considered a bit of a long shot too. The only other internal option would be 2022 2nd rounder Elias Salomonsson, who would need to take a rather large step forward playing big minutes in the SHL to have any shot at NHL 1st pairing minutes. When it comes to the left-handed Dillon, if the franchise decides to hold onto at least two of their RFA defensemen, then I really don’t see any space for him in 2024-25. His physical play may be missed by the Jets, but perhaps that could be replaced by right-handed prospect Tyrel Bauer if Chevy is able to find a way to move on from Schmidt’s awful $5.9M contract. Swedish prospect Simon Lundmark could also be another inexpensive option for the 3rd RD spot if Nate is traded. The Jets might have to retain a bit of salary or add a sweetener on a Schmidt deal, even if he only has one year remaining on his contract, but it would be worth it to free up money and opportunities for younger players.
So, after all that, is the 2024-25 cap situation crystal clear? Not really, but I do expect the Winnipeg Jets to fill at least one of the empty forward spots with a cheap entry-level contract ($920k-$895k) when one of Lucius and/or Lambert make the NHL. I would also expect the 13th and 14th forwards to earn around the league minimum ($775k-$1M). As will the 7th defenseman. If I am correct with those guesses, then Chevy would have filled 4 of the 8 open slots for around $3.52M, leaving management with approximately $14,407,976 to sign the remaining four players.
That would see the Winnipeg Jets with decisions on Perfetti, Heinola or Dillon, DeMelo or another top RD pairing option, and a back up goaltender to make. Should Perfetti excel in a top 6 center role this season and produce at a high level (like Dylan Cozen’s 68 pts in 82 games), then he could earn as much as $9M per year on a long-term deal. A shorter term deal could fall in the $4M to $6M range, especially if the youngster can avoid missing much time from injuries. At the top end of the salary ranges for Perfetti, Winnipeg’s brass might have to go with more inexpensive youth options to fill out the roster or move on from some of the more unpalatable contracts (Schmidt’s $5.9M & Appleton’s $2.17M to name a couple).
However, with a bridge deal for Perfetti the Jets could find a way to afford both Dillon and DeMelo to fill out the final defensive spots, leaving approximately $1M to $2M to find a back up goaltender. If the Jets opt to let Dillon leave via a trade deadline deal or as a UFA and go with a cheaper option next season (Heinola), then they would have even more wriggle room.
The best news for Winnipeg fans is that with a little work, management could really free up a lot of cap space to make some major moves. The team will have 10 players entering their final year of the deals they signed, though Pionk, Schmidt, and Appleton are the most likely to assist in shedding unwanted salary.
For what it’s worth a whole year in advance, here is my projection for what the Winnipeg Jets 2024-25 training camp roster might look like:
CONNOR / SCHEIFELE / VILARDI
PERFETTI / LUCIUS / EHLERS
NIEDERREITER / KUPARI / LAMBERT
IAFALLO / LOWRY / NAMESTNIKOV
BARRON / GUSTAFSSON / ****
MORRISSEY / DEMELO
SAMBERG / PIONK
HEINOLA / SALOMONSSON
STANLEY / BAUER
HELLEBUYCK
BROSSOIT
**** = one of Nikita Chibrikov, Parker Ford, or Daniel Torgersson
This potential future would involve trading Schmidt and Appleton’s salaries to allow enough money to sign Perfetti to a long-term deal and re-up Niederreiter for a couple years around $5M. Who knows how things will play out, but in the short-term neither of Hellebuyck’s or Scheifele’s contracts should cause any real issues. The latter years are a whole ‘nother story though.
