The Winnipeg Jets have announced that they have signed Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele to 7 year, $8.5 million AAV contracts. From the team:
This is definitely a choice from the Jets. It is not that Connor Hellebuyck is not worth that contract. It is that he is a 30 year old goalie. However, he has shown no signs of slowing down and has not had significant injuries which would make someone wary of the contract. Sorry if this jinxes him.
BUT MARK SCHEIFELE. When Scheifele was a young player, he had a lot of promise and looked like he would be a star. And he was very good for the Jets, but this was a while ago. Last year he looked checked out and they have now signed him to a long-term, big money contract. This is a mistake.
To understand why signing Mark Scheifele to a long-term, big money we need to understand the aging curve with forwards in the NHL. While the old piece at Arctic Ice Hockey seems to no longer be available, we do have this piece at Hockey Viz. If you scroll down to the graph, it helps understand that Scheifele is on the downside of his career and signing him to this contract is a bad idea. Still don’t agree? Think of Blake Wheeler who the Jets signed to a big money, long-term (this time only five years) contract at age 33. He almost immediately started underperforming vs. the amount he was paid. But this was something that could be seen coming from a mile away. And then he was bought out this summer.
Which leads me back to Scheifele. He has not been the player he was in his younger years which is to be expected at 29. However, his effort level was not there last year which should be a concern. Like it or not, Scheifele is a key part of the team and a leader. The length of the contract, the money committed, and the fact Scheifele has been part of the leadership group forever makes me think the Jets are in it for the long(er) haul with him and all that means is they might be left with another tough conversation in a few years like the one they had with Wheeler this summer.
