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2015 Draft NHL Equivalent Production

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Just a quick look at how some future prospects are doing in terms of scoring.

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

NHL Translations have always been an interest of mine. They are pretty powerful in allowing someone to compare players scoring paces in two different leagues. There are issues with them as well, some of which we will discuss in part.

Let's look at how the top ranked prospects have done in the scoring pace so far this season.

Note: This article is not in ranking the potential prospects from best to worst and will not be a debate over the usage of scoring in ranking skaters either. We will keep it simple. We know that stronger players tend to score more often than weaker players, this is especially accented in junior where the distribution in player talent is larger than in the NHL. We also know other factors beyond player talent can impact scoring. We also know that players can impact a game beyond scoring (ex: Corsi). However, we also know that scoring does have a statistically significant correlation with NHL scoring success and also draft success... so it is still pretty important.

Forward NHL Equivalency

NHLE Rank Player Team League DOB Height Weight Shoots GP PIM NHLE P/GP NHL P/82
1 Connor McDavid (C) Erie Otters OHL 1997-01-13 73 190 L 24 30 0.76 63
2 Mitchell Marner (C) London Knights OHL 1997-05-05 71 163 R 43 43 0.63 52
3 Jack Eichel (C) Boston Univ. NCAA 1996-10-28 74 194 R 20 14 0.56 46
4 Dylan Strome (C) Erie Otters OHL 1997-03-07 75 187 L 44 28 0.55 45
5 Anthony Beauvillier (LW/C) Shawinigan Cataractes QMJHL 1997-06-08 70 181 L 47 58 0.40 33
6 Timo Meier (RW) Halifax Mooseheads QMJHL 1996-10-08 73 209 L 40 35 0.39 32
7 Dmytro Timashov (LW/RW) Québec Remparts QMJHL 1996-10-01 70 187 L 46 46 0.37 31
8 Nick Merkley (C) Kelowna Rockets WHL 1997-05-23 70 187 R 45 49 0.37 30
9 Blake Speers (RW) Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds OHL 1997-01-02 71 185 R 40 8 0.35 28
10 Jeremy Bracco (C/RW) U.S. National U18 Team USDP 1997-03-17 69 172 R 34 4 0.34 28
11 Yevgeni Svechnikov (LW) Cape Breton Screaming Eagles QMJHL 1996-10-31 75 205 L 37 48 0.34 28
12 Nikita Korostelev (RW) Sarnia Sting OHL 1997-02-08 73 196 R 34 14 0.32 26
13 Filip Chlapik (C) Charlottetown Islanders QMJHL 1997-06-03 73 183 L 44 22 0.31 25
14 Dennis Yan (LW) Shawinigan Cataractes QMJHL 1997-04-14 73 187 L 38 51 0.29 24
15 Travis Konecny (C/RW) Ottawa 67's OHL 1997-03-11 70 172 R 42 24 0.29 24
16 Daniel Sprong (RW) Charlottetown Islanders QMJHL 1997-03-17 72 192 R 48 10 0.29 24
17 Kyle Connor (C) Youngstown Phantoms USHL 1996-12-09 73 183 L 31 6 0.29 24
18 Jansen Harkins (C) Prince George Cougars WHL 1997-05-23 73 181 L 46 31 0.29 24
19 Brock Boeser (RW) Waterloo Black Hawks USHL 1997-02-25 73 192 R 32 12 0.29 24
20 Mathew Barzal (C) Seattle Thunderbirds WHL 1997-05-26 72 181 R 17 6 0.28 23
21 Pavel Zacha (C/LW) Sarnia Sting OHL 1997-04-06 75 214 L 26 47 0.27 22
22 Yakov Trenin (LW) Gatineau Olympiques QMJHL 1997-01-13 74 179 L 37 26 0.26 21
23 Jake DeBrusk (LW) Swift Current Broncos WHL 1996-10-17 71 168 L 46 26 0.26 21
24 Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (C) Omaha Lancers USHL 1996-10-31 73 185 R 33 24 0.25 21
25 Denis Guryanov (RW/LW) Ladia Togliatti MHL 1997-06-07 74 183 L 22 37 0.24 20
26 Nathan Noel (C) Saint John Sea Dogs QMJHL 1997-06-21 72 168 R 47 39 0.24 20
27 Thomas Novak (C) Waterloo Black Hawks USHL 1997-04-28 72 181 L 31 10 0.24 19
28 Colin White (RW/C) U.S. National U18 Team USDP 1997-01-30 72 183 R 25 16 0.23 19
29 Jack Roslovic (C) U.S. National U18 Team USDP 1997-01-29 73 183 R 35 14 0.23 19
30 Lawson Crouse (LW) Kingston Frontenacs OHL 1997-06-23 76 212 L 31 55 0.22 18
31 Gabriel Gagné (C) Victoriaville Tigres QMJHL 1996-11-11 77 183 R 47 29 0.22 18
32 Christian Fischer (C) U.S. National U18 Team USDP 1997-04-15 73 212 R 35 8 0.22 18
33 Paul Bittner (LW) Portland Winterhawks WHL 1996-11-04 76 194 L 41 44 0.22 18
34 Ryan Gropp (LW) Seattle Thunderbirds WHL 1996-09-16 75 192 L 40 18 0.21 18
35 Glenn Gawdin (C/RW) Swift Current Broncos WHL 1997-03-25 71 179 R 46 39 0.20 17
36 Graham Knott (LW) Niagara IceDogs OHL 1997-01-13 76 192 L 43 27 0.20 17
37 Adam Marsh (LW) Saint John Sea Dogs QMJHL 1997-08-22 72 159 L 45 46 0.20 17
38 Jesse Gabrielle (LW) Brandon Wheat Kings WHL 1997-06-17 72 214 L 33 69 0.20 16
39 Alexander Dergachyov (С) SKA-1946 St. Petersburg MHL 1996-09-27 76 201 L 24 24 0.19 16
40 Austin Wagner (LW/C) Regina Pats WHL 1997-06-23 74 181 L 43 45 0.19 15
41 Jordan Greenway (LW) U.S. National U18 Team USDP 1997-02-16 77 223 L 22 32 0.19 15
42 Adam Musil (C) Red Deer Rebels WHL 1997-03-26 75 207 R 40 41 0.18 15
43 Brendan Warren (C) U.S. National U18 Team USDP 1997-05-07 72 192 L 33 37 0.18 15
44 Gustaf Franzén (C) Kitchener Rangers OHL 1996-09-22 71 174 R 42 26 0.18 15
45 Nicolas Roy (C) Chicoutimi Saguenéens QMJHL 1997-02-05 76 203 R 44 22 0.17 14
46 Michael Spacek (C) HC Pardubice Czech 1997-04-09 71 187 R 29 8 0.17 14
47 Roope Hintz (C/RW) Ilves Liiga 1996-11-17 74 183 L 29 4 0.15 12
48 Mikko Rantanen (C/W) TPS Liiga 1996-10-29 76 209 L 37 16 0.13 10
49 Jens Lööke (RW/LW) Brynäs SHL 1997-04-11 72 187 R 34 2 0.10 8
50 Sebastian Aho (LW) Kärpät Liiga 1997-07-26 71 172 L 18 2 0.09 7
51 Aleksi Saarela (C/LW) Ässät Liiga 1997-01-07 70 194 L 33 14 0.08 6
52 Lukas Jasek (F) HC Trinec Czech 1997-08-28 73 172 R 22 2 0.04 3

It is highly recommended to compare this list to some popular scout rankings, such as ISS or CS. There are definitely some differences that stand out off the bat.

Anthony Beauvillier, Dmytro Timashov, and Nick Merkley have scored at top 10 rates, but are ranked quite lower by scouting bureaus. Their 5'10" listed height likely plays a large role with this, same with Jeremy Bracco's 5'9" stature. Yvegeni Svechnikov doesn't have the height issue, although his passport may play a role.

How will these players perform against someone like Lawson Crouse, a large forward who hasn't scored at elite rates but is highly touted. Crouse isn't just a crash and bang type either; early viewings seem to make him look like a guy who promotes good puck possession. However, it is true that NHL scoring tends to be more expensive per impact to get in free agency than puck possession, so it may still be worth gunning for a smaller scorer than Crouse... tough call though.

It's no coincidence that most of the players in European professional leagues fall at the bottom. NHLEs are constructed using players that move from one league to the other. The unfortunate aspect though is that the pro-leagues are different in that usually only blue-chip prospects are given top six minutes. Because of this, non-blue chip prospects tend to have their scoring abilities underrated.

No NHLE Forwards

There were some skaters viewed as top prospects that are not playing in leagues that we have ample data for constructing NHL translations.

Player Team League DOB Height Weight Shoots GP G A P PIM P/GP
Filip Ahl (LW/RW) HV71 J20 SuperElit 1997-06-12 76 214 L 23 12 18 30 37 1.304
Joel Eriksson Ek (C) Färjestad J20 SuperElit 1997-01-29 74 183 L 23 18 11 29 18 1.261
Jan Ordos (F) Bili Tygri Liberec U20 Czech U20 1996-09-18 71 176 L 24 12 8 20 40 0.833
Julius Nättinen (F) JYP-Akatemia Mestis 1997-01-14 74 187 L 27 9 13 22 4 0.815
Jan Dufek (F) HC Kometa Brno U20 Czech U20 1997-02-20 71 172 L 19 7 7 14 10 0.737
Roman Dymacek (F) HC Kometa Brno U20 Czech U20 1997-01-06 72 174 L 21 5 7 12 18 0.571
Robin Kovacs (LW/RW) AIK Allsvenskan 1996-11-16 72 168 L 42 15 8 23 34 0.548
Denis Malgin (C) GC Küsnacht Lions NLB 1997-01-18 69 176 R 16 3 4 7 4 0.438
David Kase (C/LW) KLH Chomutov Czech2 1997-01-28 69 161 L 28 6 6 12 10 0.429

Defender NHL Equivalency

Player Team League DOB Height Weight Shoots GP PIM NHLE P/GP NHL P/82
Mitchell Vande Sompel (D) Oshawa Generals OHL 1997-02-11 70 181 L 36 26 0.33 27
Rasmus Andersson (D) Barrie Colts OHL 1996-10-27 72 209 R 42 52 0.29 23
Zachary Werenski (D) Univ. of Michigan NCAA 1997-07-19 74 214 L 18 2 0.28 23
Ivan Provorov (D) Brandon Wheat Kings WHL 1997-01-13 72 201 L 40 32 0.27 22
Jérémy Roy (D) Sherbrooke Phoenix QMJHL 1997-05-14 72 183 R 40 18 0.25 21
Travis Dermott (D) Erie Otters OHL 1996-12-22 71 181 L 37 40 0.24 19
Ryan Pilon (D) Brandon Wheat Kings WHL 1996-10-10 74 212 L 42 21 0.22 18
Alexandre Carrier (D) Gatineau Olympiques QMJHL 1996-10-08 71 181 L 47 44 0.21 17
Nicolas Meloche (D) Baie-Comeau Drakkar QMJHL 1997-07-18 74 198 R 44 99 0.20 16
Noah Hanifin (D) Boston College NCAA 1997-01-25 74 205 L 23 10 0.20 16
Noah Juulsen (D) Everett Silvertips WHL 1997-04-02 73 181 R 44 22 0.19 16
Jakub Zboril (D) Saint John Sea Dogs QMJHL 1997-02-21 74 185 L 33 53 0.17 14
Vince Dunn (D) Niagara IceDogs OHL 1996-10-29 72 185 L 44 41 0.17 14
Matt Spencer (D) Peterborough Petes OHL 1997-03-24 74 194 R 41 41 0.17 14
Thomas Chabot (D) Saint John Sea Dogs QMJHL 1997-01-30 74 179 L 45 34 0.16 13
Parker Wotherspoon (D) Tri-City Americans WHL 1997-08-24 72 170 L 46 55 0.14 12
Dmitri Yudin (D) SKA St. Petersburg KHL 1995-07-31 74 185 L 36 32 0.13 11
Brandon Carlo (D) Tri-City Americans WHL 1996-11-26 77 185 R 41 49 0.13 10
Guillaume Brisebois (D) Acadie-Bathurst Titan QMJHL 1997-07-21 74 172 L 46 28 0.12 10
Vladislav Gavrikov (D) Lokomotiv Yaroslavl KHL 1995-11-21 74 205 L 7 2 0.11 9
Yegor Rykov (D) SKA-1946 St. Petersburg MHL 1997-04-14 74 192 L 26 4 0.10 8
Brendan Guhle (D) Prince Albert Raiders WHL 1997-07-29 74 179 L 45 16 0.09 7
Sebastian Aho (D) Skellefteå SHL 1996-02-17 70 174 L 29 8 0.08 6
Artyom Volkov (D) HK MVD Jr MHL 1997-04-25 73 176 ? 25 8 0.06 5

For defensemen, NHLEs are a bit tougher, as scoring can be a bit more luck and usage orientated than for forwards, due to the smaller distribution and reliance on power play time. It has however been shown that scoring defensemen do tend to succeed more often than non-scoring defensemen, even if you split by which rounds they are drafted in.

The shortest ranked defender is also the highest scoring. It will be interesting to see where Mitchell Vande Sompel falls. Another interesting comparison to watch is between Hanafin and Werenski; both are big and mobile defenders, yet Werenski has been a much better scorer.

No NHLE Defenders

Here are some other defenders highly though of but are not in NHLE friendly leagues.

Player Team League DOB Height Weight Shoots GP G A P PIM P/GP
Jesper Lindgren (D) MODO J20 SuperElit 1997-05-19 72 161 R 23 5 19 24 10 1.043
Jacob Larsson (D) Frölunda J20 SuperElit 1997-04-29 74 181 L 22 5 6 11 41 0.500
Oliver Kylington (D) AIK Allsvenskan 1997-05-19 72 174 L 15 4 3 7 6 0.467
Lucas Carlsson (D) Brynäs J20 SuperElit 1997-07-05 72 183 L 25 5 6 11 38 0.440
Erik Cernak (D) HC Kosice Slovakia 1997-05-28 76 203 R 29 4 2 6 14 0.207
Gabriel Carlsson (D) Linköping J20 SuperElit 1997-01-02 76 183 L 27 0 4 4 10 0.148
Jonas Siegenthaler (D) ZSC NLA 1997-05-06 74 214 L 31 0 2 2 39 0.065