By The Numbers: St. John's IceCaps Season Review

Recent discoveries have allowed for time on ice, quality of teammate and quality of competition to be estimated from goal events while a player is on the ice. While metrics based off of goals over shot attempts are far less accurate and more vulnerable to variance, they are still useful for leagues where shot metrics are unavailable. They allow for some add information, especially for fans who are unable to watch the farm team often.

Here are some numbers generously donated by Josh Weissbock.

Estimated Ice Time

Forwards

Name	Number	Pos	GP	ES TOI	PP TOI	PK TOI	TOI
Eric O`Dell	14	C	42	7.33	6.59	3.18	17.10
Jason Jaffray	15	LW	76	7.02	5.97	3.20	16.19
Andrew Gordon	10	RW	76	6.75	5.39	2.72	14.85
Kael Mouillierat	21	LW	60	6.50	6.64	2.63	15.77
Carl Klingberg	48	LW	65	6.47	2.56	1.31	10.33
JC Lipon	34	RW	70	6.15	2.53	2.60	11.29
John Albert	16	C	63	5.70	5.62	6.75	18.07
Kyle MacKinnon	19	C	71	5.49	1.72	4.62	11.82
Jerome Samson	17	RW	68	5.43	6.51	1.79	13.73
Adam Lowry	47	C	64	5.29	2.25	3.80	11.33
Josh Lunden	42	LW	23	4.90	3.37	1.06	9.33
Blair Riley	25	RW	71	4.33	0.62	1.20	6.15
Patrice Cormier	28	C	61	4.20	2.54	3.38	10.13
Austen Brassard	50	RW	29	2.83	0.00	0.42	3.25
Ryan Schnell	38	LW	39	1.05	0.85	0.31	2.22

TOI numbers estimated from on-ice goal data tends to under estimate for low TOI players and over estimate for large TOI players. Best is to look at trends than the individual numbers.

* AHL veterans Jaffray, Gordon, Mouillierat, Albert and Samson played major roles eating a large majority of the minutes. Three of these players will not be returning so it will be interesting to see if Kevin Cheveldayoff and Craig Heisinger replace them with new AHL veterans or start a youth movement.

* O`Dell, Albert, and MacKinnon received significant ice time centring in the top six as the IceCaps wanted to continue sheltering Lowry on the third line. O`Dell and Albert were usually the two top 6 pivots; however, MacKinnon was usually the choice to go into the top 6 when the other two were called up to the main squad.

* For Jets property, Lipon was given a lot off responsibility despite being a rookie. His superior skating to Lowry allowed for a quicker and smother transition into pro.

* With all 3 of Albert, O`Dell and MacKinnon returning -and only O`Dell with a large shot in making the main team- it will be interesting to see whether Lowry will pass any of these players for TOI. This may be an area of conflict between Heisinger and Cheveldayoff.

Defensemen

Name	Number	Pos	GP	ES TOI	PP TOI	PK TOI	TOI
Zach Redmond	24	D	40	9.74	5.81	3.34	18.90
Brenden Kichton	8	D	76	9.04	5.68	2.24	16.96
Ben Chiarot	18	D	65	8.20	2.38	4.11	14.70
Julian Melchiori	44	D	50	7.38	1.77	5.83	14.99
Will O`Neill	27	D	68	7.09	5.70	2.32	15.11
Jordan Hill	29	D	68	5.58	0.98	5.54	12.09
Kris Fredheim	7	D	48	5.56	2.31	4.55	12.42
Cody Lampl	32	D	38	3.51	0.58	2.56	6.65

TOI numbers estimated from on-ice goal data tends to under estimate for low TOI players and over estimate for large TOI players. Best is to look at trends than the individual numbers.

* While the forward core was predominately carried by a veteran lineup, the IceCaps defense was carried by many of the Jets (then) prospects. (Best wishes to Zach Redmond)

* Kichton, Chiarot, and Melchiori played some heavy minutes and were used pretty much in all situations.

Estimated Usage

Forwards

Name	QoC	"Toughness" Rank	QoT	"Toughness" Rank	Average
Austen Brassard	49.20	3	54.40	2	2.5
John Albert	49.91	2	57.12	4	3.0
Ryan Schnell	48.91	5	53.27	1	3.0
Kael Mouillierat	50.16	1	57.52	8	4.5
Patrice Cormier	48.54	7	57.14	5	6.0
Adam Lowry	48.32	8	57.20	6	7.0
Andrew Gordon	48.19	9	57.45	7	8.0
Eric O`Dell	48.94	4	58.92	14	9.0
Josh Lunden	45.30	15	56.36	3	9.0
Kyle MacKinnon	48.61	6	58.10	13	9.5
Jason Jaffray	47.60	11	57.54	9	10.0
Blair Riley	47.72	10	57.93	11	10.5
JC Lipon	47.56	12	57.88	10	11.0
Jerome Samson	47.51	13	58.05	12	12.5
Carl Klingberg	46.71	14	59.08	15	14.5

* Some issues with the data can be seen with players who had a strong tendency to play with each other having very different values: for example, Jaffray and Gordon were hardly ever separated. I'm not certain how much information we can gain from individuals in that case.

* I did take averages of each line for the IceCaps most common lineup when all regulars were healthy, and the results more along the line of expectations. From highest to lowest QoC the lines went: Mouillierat-O`Dell-Klingberg; (almost tied for 1st) Jaffray-Albert-Gordon; Samson-Lowry-Lipon; Cormier-MacKinnon-Riley

Name	QoC	"Toughness" Rank	QoT	"Toughness" Rank	Average
Cody Lampl	51.79	1	54.9	1	1.0
Jordan Hill	48.19	6	56.0	2	4.0
Brenden Kichton	47.33	7	57.4	3	5.0
Kris Fredheim	50.13	2	57.6	4	3.0
Julian Melchiori	48.49	5	57.7	5	5.0
Will O`Neill	48.58	4	58.0	6	5.0
Ben Chiarot	49.24	3	58.8	7	5.0
Zach Redmond	46.28	8	59.6	8	8.0

* The IceCaps defensive core suffered through quite a few injuries and also they dressed 7 defensemen quite regularly, making these numbers a bit of a dog's breakfast. I do however find the QoC a bit upside down from what I had expected.

Goal Differential and Relative Goal Differential

Forwards

		On-ice			Off-ice
Name	GP	GF	GA	GF%	GF	GA	GF%	ΔGF%
Eric O`Dell	42	30	16	65.2%	56	42	57.1%	8.07%
Carl Klingberg	65	41	25	62.1%	101	80	55.8%	6.32%
Blair Riley	71	30	17	63.8%	126	93	57.5%	6.30%
Kyle MacKinnon	71	38	25	60.3%	117	84	58.2%	2.11%
Jason Jaffray	76	52	36	59.1%	112	84	57.1%	1.95%
Kael Mouillierat	60	38	30	55.9%	82	67	55.0%	0.85%
JC Lipon	72	44	32	57.9%	114	82	58.2%	-0.27%
Jerome Samson	68	36	25	59.0%	117	80	59.4%	-0.37%
Andrew Gordon	76	50	39	56.2%	114	81	58.5%	-2.28%
John Albert	63	35	30	53.8%	98	75	56.6%	-2.80%
Adam Lowry	64	33	28	54.1%	103	75	57.9%	-3.77%
Patrice Cormier	61	25	21	54.3%	104	72	59.1%	-4.74%
Josh Lunden	23	11	9	55.0%	49	31	61.3%	-6.25%
Austen Brassard	29	8	8	50.0%	57	39	59.4%	-9.38%
Ryan Schnell	39	4	8	33.3%	69	51	57.5%	-24.17%

Remember, these numbers are just ES goal differentials, so basically a slightly better (or really, a slightly less terrible) plus/minus.

* You'll notice a lot of players with some pretty high numbers. This is because the IceCaps played with strong goaltending. Michael Hutchinson, Eddie Pasquale, and Tyler Beskorowany all had very high regular season save percentages.

* There's not much to make of these numbers due to the sample size, although it is interesting how they all fell into place.

* Ryan Schnell (a personal favourite of Arby's) is the most intriguing for results, especially given that he only saw 12 even strength goal events while he was on the ice despite playing over 39 games.

Defense

		On-ice			Off-ice
Name	GP	GF	GA	Gf%	GF	GA	Gf%	ΔGF%
Ben Chiarot	65	52	30	63.4%	81	68	54.4%	9.05%
Zach Redmond	40	38	19	66.7%	53	37	58.9%	7.78%
Julian Melchiori	50	36	24	60.0%	75	61	55.1%	4.85%
Will O`Neill	68	47	32	59.5%	102	78	56.7%	2.83%
Kris Fredheim	48	26	19	57.8%	72	55	56.7%	1.08%
Brenden Kichton	76	67	51	56.8%	97	69	58.4%	-1.65%
Jordan Hill	68	37	38	49.3%	108	68	61.4%	-12.03%
Cody Lampl	38	13	16	44.8%	70	52	57.4%	-12.55%

Remember, these numbers are just ES goal differentials, so basically a slightly better (or really, a slightly less terrible) plus/minus.

* I've noted before that there is a lot of evidence out there that leads me to believe the Jets' managerial opinions are influenced by direct results and on-ice percentages. Ben Chiarot was a player who was nearly an afterthought last summer and this year Heisinger talked about how Chiarot may make noise at camp. Ben Chiarot's ES shot production is very similar to previous seasons, as is his point production if you normalize his sh% between the two seasons. What seems to have changed (dramatically) is his plus/minus...

* Although, counter to my previous hypothesis, the IceCaps extended Jordan Hill into next season.

Production

Forwards

Name	G/GP	A/GP	P/GP	SOG/GP	Sh%
Jerome Samson	0.40	0.43	0.82	3.15	12.6%
Eric O'Dell	0.40	0.60	1.00	2.95	13.7%
Carl Klingberg	0.34	0.31	0.65	2.74	12.4%
Kael Mouillierat	0.33	0.55	0.88	2.58	12.9%
Andrew Gordon	0.30	0.45	0.75	2.41	12.6%
John Albert	0.44	0.27	0.71	2.30	19.3%
Jason Jaffray	0.24	0.54	0.78	1.96	12.1%
Josh Lunden	0.26	0.17	0.43	1.87	14.0%
Patrice Cormier	0.15	0.28	0.43	1.74	8.5%
Adam Lowry	0.27	0.25	0.52	1.69	15.7%
J.C. Lipon	0.13	0.44	0.57	1.56	8.0%
Kyle MacKinnon	0.17	0.38	0.55	1.49	11.3%
Blair Riley	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.96	10.3%
Austen Brassard	0.10	0.07	0.17	0.83	12.5%
Ryan Schnell	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.69	3.7%

* Samson, O`Dell, Klingberg, Mouillierat and Gordon all produced the majority of the IceCaps shot volume. Three will not be returning next season while the other two may or may not, depending on fall camp.

* Lipon and MacKinnon have always been more passing type forwards, so their low shot production is understandable, but Cormier, Lowry  and Brassard are known shooters and will need to increase their volume.

Defense

Name	G/GP	A/GP	P/GP	SOG/GP	Sh%
Zach Redmond	0.15	0.48	0.63	3.05	4.9%
Will O'Neill	0.13	0.38	0.51	1.57	8.4%
Brenden Kichton	0.13	0.50	0.63	1.49	8.8%
Ben Chiarot	0.09	0.22	0.31	1.43	6.5%
Jordan Hill	0.00	0.18	0.18	1.12	0.0%
Julian Melchiori	0.02	0.20	0.22	1.08	1.9%
Kris Fredheim	0.02	0.08	0.10	1.06	2.0%

* Redmond's shot volume is extremely impressive, especially given that he is not known as an "offense only" type defender.

* Ben Chirot's shot production took a leap over last season with the added power play time.

* Melchiori's shot volume has interesting followed nearly the exact same development curve as Chiarot, although Melchiori's shot production is slightly greater at the same point in development.

Finale

I left most of the observations and analysis to a minimum. Let's here your thoughts and observations in the comments section.