Winnipeg Jets Best Even Strength Players - 5v5 Defense

Bruce Fedyck-US PRESSWIRE

We looked into the best and the worst of the Jets special teams; now we will look at the more dominate part of the game. What we'll miss and what we should expect.

Around 85% of the game is played at even strength, with most of that being 5 versus 5 situations. This is why that special teams, while important, are not very crippling and 5v5 play is the strongest predictor of future success currently known. We can see this in last season with Chicago Blackhawks being one of the worst special teams performers, yet the second best 5v5 team in the league.

If you missed the last post discussing forwards, we explained the importance of possession and production. We explained the why's and how's but also tried a little fun in creating a new statistic coined 'Arby' (named after AIH author and the somewhat arbitrary --but not really-- balance in importance of scoring and possession).

The Numbers

Name P/60 CF/60 CA/60 CD/60 Arby
Tobias Enstrom 1.06 65.90 57.71 8.19 3.11
Dustin Byfuglien 1.16 64.40 58.88 5.53 2.54
Zach Bogosian 1.02 62.79 62.40 0.39 1.12
Paul Postma 0.65 57.78 57.78 0.00 0.65
Grant Clitsome 0.74 56.41 56.91 -0.50 0.61
Ron Hainsey 0.59 60.27 61.85 -1.58 0.20
Mark Stuart 0.53 57.87 61.11 -3.24 -0.28
Randy Jones 0.24 55.40 57.57 -2.16 -0.30
Derek Meech 0.25 60.25 70.77 -10.52 -2.38
Mark Flood 0.57 48.98 63.96 -14.99 -3.18

Thoughts

* Yet again, the answers don't suck at all... the results are along the lines of what I expected (with some small exceptions).

* Tobias Esntrom joins Kyle Wellwood and Alexander Burmistrov in the criminally underrated category.

* Maybe Grant Clitsome will be an upgrade on Ron Hainsey? A lot of that will depend on chemistry with Zach Bogosian, or a change in how the Jets are best off with Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom.

* Mark Stuart is half a step away from a depth defensemen... and Meech and Flood were terrible.

Context

In the last article we discussed the context that these statistics need to be considered with. Research is still continuing on discovering the strength of these factors and how to account for them. We do know how to reduce the effects of zone starts with taking first ten seconds after a puck drop (which was done above). We do know the effects of competition in line matching is real, but over the span of a season becomes very minimal. What we do not know yet though is the strength in linemates and how to account for them.

Name QoT Δ std dev from mean
Tobias Enstrom 30.1 1.25
Dustin Byfuglien 28.4 0.55
Zach Bogosian 29.5 1.01
Paul Postma 24.5 -1.06
Grant Clitsome 25.7 -0.56
Ron Hainsey 29.0 0.80
Mark Stuart 24.8 -0.93
Derek Meech 24.5 -1.06

Thoughts

* Enstrom, Byfuglien and Bogosian play a lot of minutes with Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler and with each other, so they are above the mean as expected.

* Poor Paul Postma was stuck with Mark Stuart often, so I pity him.

* Evidence again looking like Grant Clitsome may be an acceptable #4 for the Winnipeg Jets.

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