CALGARY, CANADA - JANUARY 3: Sebastian Collberg #15 of Team Sweden scores his shootout attempt on Sami Aittokallio #30 of Team Finland during the 2012 World Junior Hockey Championship Semifinal game at the Saddledome on January 3, 2012 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Team Sweden defeated Team Finland 3-2 in a shootout. (Photo by Richard Wolowicz/Getty Images)
Part of the reason I love this time of year are, obviously, the playoffs, but we also get a chance to see the various scout rankings for the upcoming draft. It's a bit of information that, with our 9th overall pick, we need to pay great attention to; those top 10 picks are the kinds of picks you build a franchise around, or at the very least they become important building blocks. Thankfully, we have the dogged work of guys like Derek Zona and Corey Pronman to help us with our analysis, Zona for his development of the Draft Consensus Top 100, and Pronman for the fact that he's one of the few draft analysts who generates his list with possession in mind and he's rarely hyperbolic in regards to potential. Please, please, please, do check out his Top 100 List and be sure to check in as he provides in-depth analysis of the picks. He should be the first guy you turn to for this stuff.
With Derek's and Corey's information available to us, I want to take a look at some of the guys who might be around for our 9th pick(using Derek's ranks). Then, using Corey's, I'll look at some guys of value who might fall to us there. In two later pieces, I'll look at our 39th and 70th picks as well.
Generally, I'm going to look at three forwards, three defencemen that the Consensus rankings suggest will be available at our three picks (starting with this installment, the 9th pick), and then three fallers (per Corey's ranks) from either position.
Consensus --- Forwards
Teuvo Teravainen --- LW,C --- Jokerit (SM-Liiga) --- 5'11" (180cm), 165 lbs (75kg)
|2011-12||Jokerit, Jokerit U20||SM-Liiga, Jr A. Liiga||82||39||36||75||20|
|Finland U20/U18, Kiekko-Vantaa||International/WJC, Finland 2|
|2010-11||Jokerit U20/U18||Jr. A SM-Liiga, Jr. B SM-Sarja||76||14||44||58||61|
|2009-10||Jokerit U18/U16||Jr. B SM-Sarja, Jr. C SM-Sarja||70||47||60||107||42|
Sometimes when you look at guys like Teravainen it's hard to get a sense of just how much they play during the year; European players put in a lot of international time, but the focus always seems to be on the length of their regular season (~35-45 games). For all these players, I'm going to lump together all their international, regular season, and playoff statistics. While this is a questionable practice in some ways, the inclusion of all those international games (I think) brings to us an idea of European players' performance against players their age (in the same way CHL stats do for North American players).
Pontus Åberg --- LW,RW --- Djurgården (SEL) --- 5'11" (180cm), 187 lbs (85kg)
|2011-12||Djurgården, Djurgården J20||SEL, SuperElit||75||22||17||39||8|
|2010-11||Djurgården, Djurgården J20/J18||SEL, SuperElit, J18 Elit/Alls.||66||32||35||67||49|
|2009-10||Djurgården J20/J18||SuperElit, J18 Elit/Allsvenskan||67||42||47||89||46|
Zemgus Girgensons --- C,RW --- Dubuque (USHL) --- 6'2" (188cm), 198 lbs (90kg)
Though it's closer to worth the risk, I'd prefer if the Jets picked one of these guys. I've professed my love for Teravainen before, but Aberg and Girgensons provide some guys with a bit better track record of two-way play; Girgensons is already going the college route, and I really like the polish that comes from guys who make that decision. Obviously, if Alex Galchenyuk falls to here we better take a chance, but I highly doubt that will happen. Radek Faksa, incidentally, actually falls below Sebastian Collberg (after Girgensons) in the Consensus Rankings.
Consensus --- Defencemen
Jacob Trouba --- RD --- United States NTDP (USHL) --- 6'2" (188cm), 194lbs (88kg)
|2011-12||Unites States NTDP||USHL||34||5||18||23||43|
|2010-11||United States NTDP/USNT U18/U17||USHL/USDP||92||14||29||43||100|
|2009-10||Compuware U18/U16||MWEHL/Midget AAA||41||14||14||28||42|
Griffin Reinhart --- RD --- Edmonton (WHL) --- 6'4" (193cm), 198lbs (90kg)
|Canada Pacific U17||WHC|
Cody Ceci --- RD --- Ottawa (OHL) --- 6'1" (185cm), 209lbs (95kg)
|Canada Ontario U17||WHC|
A quick note: I put "RD" only to denote that they shoot right.
Trouba is talked up quite a bit in many circles, but I have to say that by the numbers I'm more intrigued by Reinhart and Ceci. The latter two have played well enough to merit 3 years of CHL experience, which is saying something about their overall game.
Radek Faksa --- C --- Kitchener (OHL) --- 6'3" (191cm), 203lbs (92kg) --- Pronman Rk: 10, Consensus Rk: 15
|Czech Republic U20||International/WJC|
|2010-11||HC Trinec U20/U18||Czech U20/U18||74||35||41||76||72|
|Czech Republic U18||International/WJC|
|2009-10||HC Trinec U20/U18/U16||Czech U20/U18/U16||51||28||25||53||66|
|Czech Republic U16||International|
Teuvo Teravainen --- LW,C --- Jokerit (SM-Liiga) --- Pronman: 5, Consensus: 9
Sebastian Collberg --- RW,LW --- Frolunda (SEL) --- 5'11" (180cm), 174lbs (79kg) --- Pronman: 11, Consensus: 14
|2011-12||Frölunda, Frölunda J20/J18||SEL, SuperElit, J18 Alls.||92||26||30||56||44|
|2010-11||Frölunda, Frölunda J20/J18||SEL, SuperElit, J18 Alls.||70||41||42||83||16|
|2009-10||Mariestad, Mariestad J20/J18||Sw Div1, J20/J18 Elit||64||49||43||92||48|
Pronman, by design, has the defencemen bumped down a bit lower, so that's why we're seeing all forwards here. Faksa and obviously Teravainen are the most impressive to me, and I'd be happy with either.
One thing these cumulative totals calls to mind is the myth that European players have "short" seasons, but also the different effect of European development on the boxcars. Many 1st-round European prospects have already dominated their junior counterparts and, by their draft year, are playing semi-NHL talent (but too often with low TOI). That guys like Teravainen and Filip Forsberg are able to put up points anyway is a testament to their talent.
So have at it in the comments and the poll: who's your guy? Has that changed as the season (and the information) has progressed?
Of the listed players, who would be your first choice if available at 9th overall?
Jacob Trouba (5 votes)
Radek Faksa (4 votes)
Teuvo Teravainen (15 votes)
Griffin Reinhart (5 votes)
Sebastian Collberg (2 votes)
Pontus Aberg (0 votes)
Zemgus Girgensons (2 votes)
Cody Ceci (5 votes)
38 total votes