Flyers, yet again, make no sense
by Hawerchuk on Jun 24, 2011 1:14 PM EDT
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I've written before that Paul Holmgren's one-part genius, one-part madman style leaves me pretty confused, and yesterday's maneuvers continued that tradition. Let's look at what they got and gave up:
IN: Bryzgalov $5.67M x 9 years; Simmonds - 1st year RFA; Voracek - 1st year RFA; Schenn - 1st year ELC; #8 pick in 2011 draft
OUT: Richards $51.6M over 10 years ($6.6 $8.4 $7.6 $7.0 $6.0 $5.5 $4.5 $3 $3); Carter $56M over 11 years ($6 $6.25 $6.5 $6.75 $7 $7 $6.5 $5 $3 $2 $2)
Philadelphia moved what are likely slight discount contracts in the present with long-term risk; the acquiring teams each get 2-3 wins better while giving up less than that in the present. Simmonds new contract will likely be worth $4-5M to Philly (since he has to sign at a discount as an RFA) and Voracek is in the same ballpark. Schenn is paid $3M a year during his ELC, so there's no immediate value there - everything hinges on him being a superstar in 2014. The #8 pick is probably worth another $3-5M over the long-term. So the Flyers made their team a little weaker (maybe 2-3 wins next year) in the near-term, but they placed some solid bets on having very good players on discount contracts two or three seasons down the line and rid themselves of long-term downside risk.
And then they threw down $51M on a contract with a goaltender that expires when he's 40 years old. Philadelphia made some moves that were at worst defensible and at best increased their long-term competitiveness, and they followed it up by completely misunderstanding the goaltending market. As we've written here and many have written elsewhere, goaltenders are virtually a dime-a-dozen, and the talent gap between the guy on the ice and the guy on the bench is next to nothing, even if their salary gap is huge. There was no reason to sign Bryzgalov to anything remotely resembling this contract, and the Flyers - after having picked up $10-$20M in contract discounts across four young players - just threw away $25-$30M extra dollars that they didn't need to spend on a goalie contract.
But hey, this is the team that signed Michael Leighton to a multi-year contract then cut him almost immediately, and continues to make Jody Shelley the richest man from Manitoba. We will never figure out what's running through Paul Holmgren's mind.
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Schenn is paid $3M a year during his ELC, so there’s no immediate value there
He is paid $900k a year in salary and has 2.1M in bonuses. Not quite the same thing.
they followed it up by completely misunderstanding the goaltending market
Like you said about Leighton, they’re consistent here. The goalie market is confusing.
But when you’re talking about a team that ran out of town one of the top five goalies since ESS% started being tabulated, a team that demoted a .923 ESS% goalie to third string because of one period where his defense hung him out to dry, I guess misunderstanding goalies shouldn’t be shocking.
3.1m cap hit is whats important. Or else you are considering Bryzgalov at $10m?
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Jun 24, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
the bonus cushion is off next year, but assuming it returns with a new CBA, the bonuses won’t be that relevant.
Yeah, this is what I was going for.
Since we don’t know what the bonuses are, it may be that he’ll require 3M of cap space this year if none of them can be removed from the cap until it’s too late. But next year the Flyers actually have a worse payroll situation than this year, with van Riemsdyk hitting RFA and Carle and Coburn hitting UFA, and his cap hit will be much smaller then.
Is it true that the cap space becomes available once bonuses (i.e. GP, etc) become unattainable?
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Next year, when there’s no bonus cushion. Normally, bonuses are excused until earned.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 26, 2011 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
The goalie market is confusing.
Yes. Very confusing.
Because your job as a GM has nothing to do with understanding a market that may be volatile or confusing.
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haha, that was partial sarcasm. Eric isn’t defending Holmgren, or that contract. Believe me.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 26, 2011 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I wrote my opinions at length over on HP (currently attribruted to Will Carroll, minor publishing error) but the point I forgot to make is this:
Why trade both of them? I can understand moving Carter to get Bryz, even if I think the Bryz contract is the highest risk of the trio. That said, why ship out Richards too?
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So the Flyers made their team a little weaker (maybe 2-3 wins next year) in the near-term, but they placed some solid bets on having very good players on discount contracts two or three seasons down the line and rid themselves of long-term downside risk.
…two or three seasons down the line when Pronger and Timonen may well be providing negative value on their contracts (or will be gone, with no foreseeable replacements). I understand dumping salary, but why make your team even weaker when it may very well be getting weaker already?
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
And that is my problem with all this. This is, or at least, was a team built to win now, still sort of is when you consider guys like Pronger, Kimmo and Briere, and yet they made moves yesterday to get significantly younger. So which one is it? Win now or youth movement? Because it can’t be both.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Exactly. Bryz will be in his mid-30s, Pronger in his 40s when Schenn and co. are the front line players on this team. They seem to have closed their window.
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I doubt Kimmo signs on extension. He’s done after next year (2012-13).
That’s what baffled me. Dumping peak players at good hits and signing a 31 year old goalie to a 9 ear contract is the strangest rebuild I’ve ever seen.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
This has a lot less to do with the Flyers GM(whom I loathe) and a lot more to do with what owner Ed Snider wanted.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
You're right on Snider...
He seems able and willing to eat all sorts of money since he has such a sound market. He and his ilk are the reason that a CBA with a cap was so damn necessary.
Holmgren, of course, is no genius. Most of the moves that he’s made which have worked out seem to be born of dumb luck more than anything else. But, for every Briere there is a Hartnell.
The Flyers saviour has been their amateur scouting. These guys make good draft picks — often with few picks remaining in the cupboard.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
Didn't they ...
Also net a second and third round pick, in total? Not immense value, but it counts.
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Seeing as this is the Jets blog now, im interested:
Holmgren calls and asks for the 1st and Kane. Take it (for either Richards or Carter)?
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