Puck Battles: Blake Wheeler is about to "Break Out"
by SO_RyanP on Nov 25, 2011 9:00 AM EST
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Puck Battles is a semi-regular column exploring a few key issues around the NHL. Hopefully you don't agree with the opinion expressed by the author, that way we get to argue more. The only thing that can't be argued is Milan Lucic's dominance over the Sabres. He's in their kitchen.
I've got news for you. Blake Wheeler is about to "rediscover his work ethic", "play with heart" by driving to the net and of course get himself "in the zone". Do I know this because I've been talking to Pierre McGuire about his practice habits? Of course not. I just know that he's not a career 2.1% shooter, which is the rate he's currently converting his shots at.
Take a look at Wheeler's career goal, shot and shooting percentage numbers by season:
2008-09 81 GP 21 G 150 shots 14.0%
2009-10 82 GP 18 G 159 shots 11.3%
2010-11 81 GP 18 G 179 shots 10.1%
2011-12 21 GP 1 G 48 shots 2.1%
It would be concerning if his shot volume had dropped off significantly, but that is hardly the case. Each year Wheeler has increased his number of shots and each year his shooting percentage has dipped a little bit. This year, he's on pace for 180-190 shots. In all likelihood, he'll convert 10-11% of his chances, and end up with 18-20 goals.
That said, with only 1 goal to his name at the moment, the running story is that he can't find his groove in coach Noel's system or doesn't fit that well with his linemates. The real reason is most likely puck luck, so get ready to see him start pumping the net full as the breaks start going his way.
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Well, it happened once last year, but I'd like to see it happen more often. Other teams should be calling the Jets endlessly about taking a "slumping" player like Wheeler off their hands. The Blackhawks picked up Frolik from Florida last year in much the same way, and got a bargain in the process.
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Given the theme above, I think the Oilers should have been shopping Nikolai Khabibulin all over the league after his hot start. Much like it's counterpart in the German capital, the Bulin Wall has seen better days. This late-career performance (0.936 sv%) is fairly uncharacteristic for a goalie with a career save percentage of 0.908. I'd rather see the young Oilers pick up a defenseman in a trade for Khabibulin and give Devan Dubnyk a run at the starter's role.
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I have been telling everybody that will listen that Wheeler will "break out" soon.
I have been telling them this for the whole month of November.
I know it will eventually happen, but sooner would be better.
While you're at it you can tell them Wellwood is due for a slump
It’s a shame there’s no way to profit from this kind of stuff
He definitely should slump, but I can't see his shooting % dropping too much,
Because the only time he shoots is when he finds a rebound next to a wide open net.
While we are on the topic, Bogo should find the back of thr net soon. I think he has 3 or 4 posts to go with his zero goals. Meanwhile, Slater and Glass have used up pretty much all of their scoring for the season.
by truck on Nov 25, 2011 4:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He hasn't been a slouch
sure, he’s not scoring right now but he is tied for first on the team with 10 assists, 7 of which have been primary. He’s setting things up out there and soon he will have the goals to reflect his offensive success as well.
Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos! Follow me on Twitter @TJCAPS.
Great column.
For a GM going after guys like Wheeler could certainly be a good move, but I wonder if it would be a little too transparent. Then again, probably not. I wonder to what extent they buy into media narratives.
This year, he’s on pace for 180-190 shots. In all likelihood, he’ll convert 10-11% of his chances, and end up with 18-20 goals.
Mostly nitpicking here, but I disagree with the above. I think we can expect 10-11% on the rest of his shots but his bad start will push the total number down to 7.5-9% and 14-16 goals. He’d have to shoot at about 13% the rest of the way to get up to 10%. While he certainly could, he did better on about the same number of shots in all of 2008-2009, but it’s more likely that he is closer to his career average of 10.8%. Shooting 10.8% the rest of the way and getting 187 total shots would put him right at 15 more goals, so 16 total, good for a season shooting percentage of 8.6%.
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I always wonder if the “slumping” player is a transparent narrative or not. Guys always talk about fighting the puck and gripping their stick too hard, so I really believ that some teams would fall for it.
About your “nitpicky” comment. It’s very true. I actually thought about showing it that way, because as you point out, it’s much more accurate. I opted to try simplifying it, but I think it may send the wrong message. 14-16 goals is better estimate, but I think we could also reasonably say the range is 14-20 goals depending on variation of his shooting percentage.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
Further to the point, I think trying to trade for guys with a low on-ice save % (deflating +/-) might be a little more sly as it’s not as obvious.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
Guys always talk about fighting the puck and gripping their stick too hard
And really, I totally buy this, but I think it’s a much more transient feeling than the MSM makes it out to be.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Nov 26, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
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