Beating Save Percentage to Death: The Theory Of Everything


The Big TOE. The big fella, the Lizard King. Godzilla.

Goalie matters. Hasek was better than Fuhr. Who knew? However, it looks like goalie matters in a perverse sort of way. If you look at the coefficients, only Hasek pops out as better than average. A lot of goalies are worse than average. Somebody has to finish last. Fuhr finished his career with an 0.863 in Calgary in 1999. That will get you there.

 

Year matters (a little). Average save percentage has gone up from 0.914 in 1997 to 0.920 in 2009. It is reasonable to correct for this effect. I think this effect will vanish in the next few years as I do not expect save percentage to continue to climb much above current levels. Looking at the sum of squares, Year only accounts for something like 0.4% of the total variability.

 

Age matters (some). Again I expect that this effect is going to diminish over the next couple years. Most of the goalies with a significant upward trend are currently active. I don't think they can continue to go up. Cam Ward has gone from 0.898 to 0.926. He is not going to be at 0.950 in another 5 years. (If he is, Jim Rutherford goes back to being a genius.) Johnathan Bernier was 0.867 in 2007 and 0.961 in 2009. Niittymaki has gone from 0.910 to 0.919. Halak has gone from 0.906 to 0.933. Clemmensen has gone from 0.883 to 0.912. Greiss went from 0.788 (seriously) in 2007 to 0.923 in 2009. Miller has gone from 0.901 to 0.928.

 

Team doesn't matter at all. Which is good. These are even strength save percentages, and the assumption is that the quality of scoring chances yielded at even strength by all teams should be about the same. This data supports that notion.

 

 

>LinearModel.5 <- lm(RawLogit ~ lastfirst/Age+Year+Team,
data=Dataset, weights=ESA)
>anova(LinearModel.5)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: RawLogit
                      Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value    Pr(>F)    
lastfirst     230 6263.1  27.231  1.9890 1.650e-10 ***
Year            1   63.3  63.340  4.6264   0.03198 *  
Team           29  473.7  16.335  1.1932   0.22689    
lastfirst:Age 172 2825.5  16.428  1.1999   0.06790 .  
Residuals     486 6653.7  13.691                      

 

>summary(LinearModel.5)
Call:lm(formula = RawLogit ~ lastfirst/Age + Year + Team, data = Dataset, 
    weights = ESA)
Residuals:
       Min           1Q     Median         3Q        Max 
-9.993e+00  -1.684e+00 -1.593e-16  1.269e+00  1.055e+01 

 

 


TeamCoefficients:

Estimate

StdError

tvalue

Pvalue

Team[T.OTT]

0.136

0.148

0.919

0.359

Team[T.NJD]

0.119

0.165

0.721

0.471

Team[T.MIN]

0.038

0.131

0.286

0.775

Team[T.PHI]

0.010

0.131

0.077

0.939

Team[T.CAR]

-0.009

0.124

-0.071

0.943

Team[T.NSH]

-0.013

0.140

-0.095

0.925

Team[T.MTL]

-0.026

0.141

-0.185

0.854

Team[T.VAN]

-0.024

0.128

-0.189

0.850

Team[T.PHX]

-0.025

0.125

-0.198

0.843

Team[T.CGY]

-0.026

0.123

-0.211

0.833

Team[T.BOS]

-0.036

0.134

-0.268

0.789

Team[T.FLA]

-0.052

0.123

-0.420

0.675

Team[T.WSH]

-0.083

0.153

-0.545

0.586

Team[T.STL]

-0.083

0.125

-0.666

0.505

Team[T.PIT]

-0.097

0.139

-0.697

0.486

Team[T.TOR]

-0.094

0.125

-0.754

0.451

Team[T.TBL]

-0.113

0.125

-0.900

0.369

Team[T.ATL]

-0.145

0.153

-0.946

0.345

Team[T.CBJ]

-0.133

0.140

-0.950

0.343

Team[T.DET]

-0.120

0.126

-0.950

0.343

Team[T.CHI]

-0.133

0.136

-0.978

0.328

Team[T.BUF]

-0.137

0.137

-1.000

0.318

Team[T.COL]

-0.146

0.142

-1.027

0.305

Team[T.NYR]

-0.158

0.146

-1.078

0.282

Team[T.NYI]

-0.175

0.133

-1.320

0.187

Team[T.EDM]

-0.192

0.133

-1.446

0.149

Team[T.SJS]

-0.190

0.130

-1.461

0.145

Team[T.LAK]

-0.211

0.132

-1.595

0.111

Team[T.DAL]

-0.256

0.143

-1.795

0.073

 

 

 

AgeCoefficients:

Estimate

StdError

tvalue

Pvalue

WardCam:Age

0.208

0.081

2.567

0.011

BernierJonathan:Age

0.763

0.309

2.466

0.014

NiittymakiAntero:Age

0.195

0.082

2.369

0.018

HalakJaroslav:Age

0.217

0.101

2.145

0.032

ClemmensenScott:Age

0.218

0.102

2.138

0.033

HurmeJani:Age

0.307

0.144

2.124

0.034

GreissThomas:Age

0.690

0.345

1.996

0.046

MillerRyan:Age

0.149

0.075

1.977

0.049

BierkZac:Age

0.184

0.095

1.947

0.052

HebertGuy:Age

0.201

0.104

1.944

0.053

EmeryRay:Age

0.167

0.087

1.921

0.055

VokounTomas:Age

0.137

0.072

1.897

0.058

PotvinFelix:Age

0.145

0.077

1.879

0.061

CechmanekRoman:Age

0.172

0.092

1.878

0.061

LamotheMarc:Age

0.379

0.206

1.838

0.067

TugnuttRon:Age

0.148

0.081

1.830

0.068

RoyPatrick:Age

0.137

0.075

1.826

0.068

SnowGarth:Age

0.140

0.077

1.823

0.069

DipietroRick:Age

0.136

0.075

1.816

0.070

AndersonCraig:Age

0.143

0.079

1.809

0.071

LaBarberaJason:Age

0.163

0.092

1.767

0.078

RolosonDwayne:Age

0.125

0.072

1.734

0.084

BryzgalovIlya:Age

0.153

0.089

1.730

0.084

SabourinDany:Age

0.225

0.131

1.712

0.088

BoucherBrian:Age

0.120

0.073

1.641

0.101

LalimePatrick:Age

0.119

0.073

1.625

0.105

HedbergJohan:Age

0.120

0.075

1.607

0.109

BrodeurMartin:Age

0.114

0.071

1.603

0.110

KhabibulinNikolai:Age

0.115

0.072

1.596

0.111

FleuryMarc-Andre:Age

0.120

0.076

1.581

0.114

McLennanJamie:Age

0.119

0.076

1.569

0.117

WeekesKevin:Age

0.116

0.074

1.556

0.120

CousineauMarcel:Age

1.004

0.658

1.527

0.127

PrusekMartin:Age

0.224

0.148

1.515

0.130

TheodoreJose:Age

0.112

0.074

1.510

0.132

GiguereJean-Sebastien:Age

0.106

0.072

1.457

0.146

RhodesDamian:Age

0.137

0.095

1.451

0.147

BurkeSean:Age

0.107

0.074

1.445

0.149

BudajPeter:Age

0.123

0.085

1.440

0.150

ThomasTim:Age

0.113

0.079

1.436

0.152

TellqvistMikael:Age

0.142

0.100

1.412

0.159

KolzigOlie:Age

0.101

0.072

1.411

0.159

LuongoRoberto:Age

0.101

0.072

1.400

0.162

OuelletMaxime:Age

0.253

0.182

1.389

0.166

SchwabCorey:Age

0.123

0.088

1.388

0.166

GaronMathieu:Age

0.106

0.077

1.381

0.168

RichterMike:Age

0.106

0.077

1.377

0.169

DunhamMike:Age

0.102

0.075

1.362

0.174

JohnsonBrent:Age

0.101

0.074

1.361

0.174

HolmqvistJohan:Age

0.153

0.113

1.354

0.176

ThibaultJocelyn:Age

0.100

0.074

1.351

0.177

SaloTommy:Age

0.103

0.077

1.335

0.182

FernandezManny:Age

0.097

0.073

1.331

0.184

MasonChris:Age

0.104

0.079

1.324

0.186

SchneiderCory:Age

0.818

0.621

1.318

0.188

HowardJimmy:Age

0.161

0.123

1.310

0.191

OsgoodChris:Age

0.094

0.072

1.305

0.192

NabokovEvgeni:Age

0.094

0.072

1.304

0.193

CloutierDan:Age

0.096

0.075

1.287

0.199

GrahameJohn:Age

0.096

0.076

1.264

0.207

AubinJean-Sebastien:Age

0.092

0.075

1.226

0.221

LangkowScott:Age

0.332

0.281

1.180

0.239

LundqvistHenrik:Age

0.090

0.078

1.159

0.247

SkudraPeter:Age

0.101

0.088

1.153

0.250

BironMartin:Age

0.083

0.073

1.142

0.254

LegaceManny:Age

0.081

0.073

1.120

0.263

LeightonMichael:Age

0.094

0.084

1.118

0.264

DanisYann:Age

0.144

0.133

1.079

0.281

NiemiAntti:Age

0.623

0.578

1.077

0.282

EscheRobert:Age

0.083

0.078

1.072

0.284

RinnePekka:Age

0.149

0.142

1.053

0.293

KiprusoffMiikka:Age

0.077

0.074

1.048

0.295

DenisMarc:Age

0.077

0.074

1.043

0.298

BrathwaiteFred:Age

0.087

0.083

1.042

0.298

JosephCurtis:Age

0.073

0.072

1.008

0.314

TabaracciRichard:Age

0.272

0.271

1.004

0.316

HasekDominik:Age

0.073

0.073

0.998

0.319

TurcoMarty:Age

0.071

0.072

0.982

0.327

ParentRich:Age

0.236

0.245

0.963

0.336

FisetStephane:Age

0.048

0.051

0.933

0.351

TurekRoman:Age

0.074

0.081

0.917

0.360

ConklinTy:Age

0.071

0.078

0.914

0.361

LehtonenKari:Age

0.076

0.083

0.910

0.363

RaskTuukka:Age

0.221

0.249

0.888

0.375

RaycroftAndrew:Age

0.066

0.076

0.867

0.386

BelfourEd:Age

0.063

0.073

0.854

0.393

HuetCristobal:Age

0.065

0.076

0.848

0.397

CrawfordCorey:Age

0.214

0.253

0.846

0.398

KiddTrevor:Age

0.065

0.079

0.819

0.413

MunroAdam:Age

0.173

0.216

0.797

0.426

BlackburnDan:Age

0.165

0.212

0.780

0.436

HnilickaMilan:Age

0.091

0.122

0.747

0.455

DafoeByron:Age

0.057

0.077

0.744

0.457

HealyGlenn:Age

0.088

0.119

0.738

0.461

FinleyBrian:Age

0.257

0.354

0.725

0.469

IrbeArturs:Age

0.055

0.077

0.714

0.476

BacashihuaJason:Age

0.202

0.287

0.705

0.481

RamoKarri:Age

0.155

0.221

0.704

0.482

VarlamovSemyon:Age

0.248

0.374

0.664

0.507

PelletierJean-Marc:Age

0.127

0.194

0.657

0.512

McLeanKirk:Age

0.095

0.145

0.654

0.514

AebischerDavid:Age

0.051

0.080

0.645

0.519

HardingJosh:Age

0.074

0.114

0.644

0.520

HillerJonas:Age

0.076

0.120

0.636

0.525

SanfordCurtis:Age

0.059

0.095

0.626

0.531

RanfordBill:Age

0.103

0.166

0.621

0.535

PassmoreSteve:Age

0.057

0.094

0.613

0.540

HirschCorey:Age

0.110

0.189

0.582

0.561

KochanDieter:Age

0.131

0.232

0.565

0.573

NurminenPasi:Age

0.075

0.133

0.565

0.572

LasakJan:Age

0.454

0.819

0.555

0.579

EllisDan:Age

0.058

0.106

0.545

0.586

WhitmoreKay:Age

0.555

1.020

0.544

0.587

NoronenMika:Age

0.078

0.150

0.519

0.604

StorrJamie:Age

0.040

0.079

0.510

0.610

HackettJeff:Age

0.040

0.079

0.505

0.614

GerberMartin:Age

0.039

0.086

0.460

0.646

QuickJonathan:Age

0.072

0.157

0.460

0.646

PriceCarey:Age

0.048

0.110

0.436

0.663

VanbiesbrouckJohn:Age

0.042

0.102

0.415

0.678

PuppaDaren:Age

0.079

0.196

0.405

0.685

WreggetKen:Age

0.062

0.166

0.372

0.710

MaracleNorm:Age

0.058

0.158

0.366

0.714

VernonMichael:Age

0.033

0.092

0.362

0.718

CaronSebastien:Age

0.037

0.103

0.359

0.720

NeuvirthMichal:Age

0.163

0.479

0.340

0.734

FankhouserScott:Age

0.132

0.390

0.339

0.735

AuldAlex:Age

0.027

0.085

0.316

0.752

HodsonKevin:Age

0.035

0.114

0.303

0.762

McElhinneyCurtis:Age

0.193

0.675

0.286

0.775

LabbeJean-Francois:Age

0.083

0.297

0.279

0.780

MarkkanenJussi:Age

0.019

0.085

0.221

0.825

LeneveuDavid:Age

0.089

0.438

0.203

0.839

BrochuMartin:Age

0.027

0.199

0.136

0.892

BackstromNiklas:Age

0.009

0.087

0.104

0.917

WilkinsonDerek:Age

0.050

0.517

0.097

0.923

FountainMichael:Age

0.031

0.347

0.089

0.929

DeslauriersJeff:Age

0.022

0.277

0.080

0.937

ChabotFrederic:Age

0.015

0.401

0.038

0.969

ToskalaVesa:Age

0.000

0.080

0.005

0.996

FlahertyWade:Age

0.000

0.128

-0.003

0.998

PavelecOndrej:Age

-0.001

0.163

-0.007

0.994

BarrassoTom:Age

-0.009

0.105

-0.087

0.931

LittleNeil:Age

-0.127

0.811

-0.156

0.876

ShieldsSteve:Age

-0.013

0.080

-0.159

0.874

SmithMike:Age

-0.023

0.108

-0.216

0.829

BillingtonCraig:Age

-0.022

0.097

-0.221

0.825

DubielewiczWade:Age

-0.030

0.129

-0.233

0.816

EssensaBob:Age

-0.031

0.106

-0.291

0.771

LeclairePascal:Age

-0.025

0.086

-0.291

0.771

MacDonaldJoey:Age

-0.094

0.300

-0.313

0.754

FuhrGrant:Age

-0.051

0.133

-0.384

0.701

MossTyler:Age

-0.068

0.151

-0.450

0.653

ValiquetteSteve:Age

-0.093

0.195

-0.478

0.633

ElliottBrian:Age

-0.097

0.187

-0.521

0.603

ToivonenHannu:Age

-0.081

0.155

-0.525

0.600

MasonSteve:Age

-0.088

0.162

-0.543

0.588

ClimieMatt:Age

-0.447

0.777

-0.576

0.565

CareyJim:Age

-0.337

0.571

-0.590

0.555

CassiviFrederic:Age

-0.085

0.137

-0.623

0.533

SauvePhilippe:Age

-0.189

0.302

-0.628

0.530

NorrenaFredrik:Age

-0.104

0.160

-0.649

0.517

RousselDominic:Age

-0.186

0.282

-0.660

0.510

HextallRon:Age

-0.168

0.247

-0.679

0.497

FitzpatrickMark:Age

-0.362

0.511

-0.709

0.479

FichaudEric:Age

-0.139

0.171

-0.811

0.418

TallasRobbie:Age

-0.103

0.127

-0.811

0.418

WaiteJimmy:Age

-0.267

0.328

-0.815

0.415

CharpentierSebastien:Age

-0.232

0.282

-0.822

0.412

ErsbergErik:Age

-0.165

0.179

-0.919

0.359

TerreriChris:Age

-0.180

0.182

-0.990

0.322

DivisReinhard:Age

-0.270

0.207

-1.306

0.192

 

 

GoalieCoefficients:

Estimate

StdError

tvalue

Pvalue

Hasek Dominik

0.143

0.079

1.820

0.069

Shulmistra Richard

0.780

0.764

1.022

0.307

Brodeur Mike

0.488

0.479

1.021

0.308

Rask Tuukka

0.119

0.137

0.864

0.388

Lacosta Daniel

0.377

0.505

0.747

0.455

Cechmanek Roman

0.060

0.091

0.665

0.507

Jablonski Pat

0.239

0.434

0.552

0.581

Roy Patrick

0.042

0.081

0.524

0.600

Barrasso Tom

0.056

0.108

0.513

0.608

Crawford Corey

0.153

0.336

0.454

0.650

Hiller Jonas

0.041

0.100

0.409

0.682

Schwarz Marek

0.357

0.892

0.401

0.689

Cousineau Marcel

0.100

0.327

0.305

0.760

Luongo Roberto

0.018

0.075

0.240

0.810

Schaefer Nolan

0.067

0.373

0.181

0.856

Vokoun Tomas

0.009

0.075

0.122

0.903

Burke Sean

0.008

0.085

0.097

0.923

Coleman Gerald

0.067

1.039

0.065

0.948

Montoya Al

0.020

0.394

0.052

0.959

Curry John

0.020

0.518

0.039

0.969

Dubielewicz Wade

0.000

0.150

0.002

0.998

Thomas Tim

-0.006

0.083

-0.078

0.938

Bernier Jonathan

-0.027

0.323

-0.084

0.933

Enroth Jhonas

-0.083

0.764

-0.108

0.914

Varlamov Semyon

-0.020

0.160

-0.125

0.900

Giguere Jean-Sebastien

-0.011

0.078

-0.134

0.893

Danis Yann

-0.024

0.140

-0.171

0.864

Anderson Craig

-0.019

0.094

-0.206

0.837

Peters Justin

-0.069

0.284

-0.241

0.810

Ouellet Maxime

-0.062

0.250

-0.247

0.805

Lundqvist Henrik

-0.025

0.081

-0.304

0.761

Gustafson Derek

-0.138

0.436

-0.315

0.753

Salak Alexander

-0.266

0.830

-0.320

0.749

Eklund Brian

-0.445

1.295

-0.343

0.731

Lehtonen Kari

-0.033

0.087

-0.380

0.704

Prusek Martin

-0.054

0.141

-0.382

0.702

Ersberg Erik

-0.054

0.137

-0.392

0.695

Halak Jaroslav

-0.041

0.103

-0.396

0.693

Fernandez Manny

-0.033

0.082

-0.404

0.686

Wall Michael

-0.241

0.589

-0.409

0.683

Hebert Guy

-0.038

0.091

-0.417

0.677

Backlund Johan

-0.370

0.870

-0.425

0.671

Flaherty Wade

-0.066

0.154

-0.430

0.667

Johnson Chad

-0.165

0.378

-0.436

0.663

Chiodo Andy

-0.125

0.285

-0.437

0.662

Minard Mike

-0.325

0.723

-0.449

0.654

Climie Matt

-0.178

0.386

-0.462

0.644

Cassivi Frederic

-0.118

0.248

-0.478

0.633

Kiprusoff Miikka

-0.038

0.078

-0.481

0.631

Lamothe Marc

-0.198

0.404

-0.491

0.623

Rinne Pekka

-0.052

0.103

-0.511

0.610

Neuvirth Michal

-0.106

0.196

-0.540

0.590

Little Neil

-0.408

0.736

-0.555

0.579

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Kochan Dieter

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Caron Sebastien

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Snow Garth

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Kidd Trevor

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Noronen Mika

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Carey Jim

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Tallas Robbie

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Hedberg Johan

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Schwab Corey

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Hodson Kevin

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Grahame John

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Denis Marc

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Cloutier Dan

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Toivonen Hannu

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Langkow Scott

-0.643

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Fuhr Grant

-0.379

0.109

-3.482

0.001

 

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