On Canadian Goaltenders in the NHL

by Hawerchuk on May 20, 2010 11:38 PM EDT

CHICAGO - MAY 09: Roberto Luongo #1 of the Vancouver Canucks makes a glove save against the Chicago Blackhawks in Game Five of the Western Conference Semifinals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at United Center on May 9, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

James Mirtle points out an interesting trend: Canadians have gone from being nearly 100% of NHL goaltenders in 1980 to less than 50% today. Here's the trend in minutes played:

But if we look at the number of goaltending jobs, the change isn't quite as stark - there were simply a ridiculous number of professional goaltenders in the mid-1970s, when talent dilution was as bad as ever. Overall, we've gone from 20 Canadian NHL goalies to 15 in the last 30 years:

A "full-time equivalent" goaltender is derived from the number of minutes played by Canadians - essentially the percentage of minutes played multiplied by the number of teams in the league. If a goalie plays all of his team's games - Martin Brodeur 2006-07 - he counts as one full-time equivalent goaltender.

When you consider the number of Canadian male children born 25 years earlier, the change is even subtler:

Basically, Canadian male births dropped 25% from 1959 to 1984, and the number of goaltenders who developed 25 years later (1984 and 2009, respectively) dropped accordingly. Indeed, were it not for the existence of the WHA, the rate at which Canada produced professional goaltenders would have been approximately constant from the 1967 expansion through today.

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

1) What did you consider a “full time” goalie, majority of a team’s starts?
2) So basically the raw number of CAN goalies has been flat, but the share of CAN minutes has been falling as the NHL expanded in the 1990s and Europeans filled more roster spots.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on May 21, 2010 8:00 AM EDT reply actions

Full-time equivalent goalie = 82 games * 60 minutes (or however many games were played that season).

by Hawerchuk on May 21, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Basically, Canadian male births dropped 25% from 1959 to 1984

I don’t know how relevant that is given that opportunities for development expanded exponentially during that time frame. A third of the indoor rinks in Canada were built in the early 1970s, more than in the 1950s and 60s combined, junior leagues expanded etc. Family wealth also grew dramatically and with it the means and leisure to pursue an athletic career increased.
What it does highlight for me is the low participation rate among the generation born of parents who were immigrants to Canada since they make up a growing percentage of recent birth cohorts. This is especially striking given the high level of participation among children of immigrants in US sports, Hispanics in baseball and even children of African immigrants in football and the NFL.

by Big Picture Guy on May 21, 2010 9:26 AM EDT reply actions

But you also have significant westward migration during the period of rink construction. In 1946, some huge percentage of the league was born in Winnipeg, but a generation later, you had a ton of players born in SK and AB and even – unthinkable in the 40s and 50s – guys from BC.

I think you still had great access to the sport in the days where there were no players from west of Manitoba.

by Hawerchuk on May 21, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions