Kovalchuk...
by Hawerchuk on Feb 5, 2010 2:15 PM EST
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PrintTyler's excitement about the Kovalchuk deal notwithstanding, New Jersey gave up a lot in this deal. The Devils do win the deal in 2009-10 - a few months of Kovalchuk, including the playoffs, is worth more than Johnny Oduya and Nicklas Bergfors will contribute this season. As far as I can tell from sports books that haven't been updated overnight, the Devils jumped from 12-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup to 6-1, which is a big improvement, but still behind Chicago, Pittsburgh, San Jose and Washington.
There should be no question that the Devils lose this deal in the future. Oduya is signed at market value, but Bergfors is an RFA at the end of the season and will get signed at a large discount. I suppose Cormier was going to be a headache in New Jersey, but the inclusion of a first-round pick on top of that seals the deal for Atlanta. The Thrashers probably pick up two wins for free in 2010-11 as a result of this deal, with more wins in the years beyond that.
I suppose it would make a lot of sense if Kovalchuk was the best player in the league, but the stats don't really support that:
Kovalchuk 09-10 @ 5v5
Quality of Competiton: 10th on his team
Corsi Relative to Teammates: -3.6 shots per 60
Offensive Zone Faceoffs: 49.4%
Kovalchuk 08-09 @ 5v5
Quality of Competiton: 11th on his team
Corsi Relative to Teammates: +1.4 shots per 60
Offensive Zone Faceoffs: 45.0% (Atlanta had a horrendous number of D-zone faceoffs last year, so this is actually sheltered.)
Kovalchuk 07-08 @ 5v5
Quality of Competiton: 11th on his team
Corsi Relative to Teammates: -1.0 shots per 60
Offensive Zone Faceoffs: 49.1%
Bottom line: Kovalchuk has not played good two-way hockey. He starts out in the opponent's end a lot against relatively weak competition, generates a lot of offensive opportunities as a result, but gives it all back at the other end of the ice. He is a talented shooter, and brings a lot of value to the power-play, but he isn't Henrik Zetterberg. A lot of the gain for New Jersey hinges on using Kovalchuk more appropriately than in Atlanta, and Jacques Lemaire is the guy to pull off such a miracle - but it certainly seems like this deal has a lot of downside for the Devils.
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Everybody who comments on this trade keeps forgetting the fine print which when you are dealing with Lou L. is always crucial. The swap of second round picks puts Lou only ten spots below the first rounder he gave up (as of today)and the spread will probably narrow as the Thrashers start their death spiral. The low second rounder-57th I think-is a throwaway. Anssi Salmela went back to NJ-a marginal NHLer to be sure but is Bergfors much more than that right now? Cormier’s type is easy to find in the UFA market, the bonus is you don’t have to deal with his adolescence.
Kovalchuk has many faults but he has responded to criticism -Lemaire is good at that-in the past. I’m thinking of the WC in Ottawa when Bykov (Russian coach) chewed him out in a way that nobody in Atlanta ever had the balls to do. Plus there are strong personalities on the Devils, the fat guy in goal, Langenbrunner, the likes of which Kovalchuk never had to deal with in Atlanta.
Dealing with Lou would scare the holy hell out of me. I feel like you might be pretty happy with your return, maybe for months or even years down the road. And then one day as your team is fighting for its playoff life, all the players Lou traded you would get rung up on charges of like conspiracy to commit wire fraud or something. And then the fourth-rounder Lou insisted you include would turn into a Sergei Fedorov or something.
by Passive Voice on Feb 6, 2010 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with your take here BPG. The value of the picks trading hands is relatively small when you consider the positions being exchanged. I also agree on Bergfors. He doesn’t look to me like a particularly good offensive talent and that’s really what the Thrashers are going to need to replace. He’s never scored a PPG in the AHL and his rookie season and despite very favourable starting positions so far this season hasn’t managed to get the puck in the net. How much of a discount can he really be if he isn’t very good? Oduya is a nice player signed for two seasons but the Devils pick up the 3.5M to replace him in the deal too and that seems pretty doable. It’s not as though Oduya has a discount contract. And then you have Cormier, who’s pretty much a throw-away in the deal.
If it’s true that the Devils saw their odds for a Stanley Cup double because of the trade for this season, I think this is a really smart trade for them. I think Kovalchuk should fit in really well with the Devils too. If they give Kovalchuk the same 58% OZ faceoff ratio they had been giving to Bergfors they should see a huge boost in offence.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 6, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
From the “systems” perspective, I’m hesitant to castigate Kovy’s defensive capabilities until I see him on a team committed to defense (and challenging him to play defense). He’s still 27. Corsi tells us he didn’t play defense in Atlanta, but not that he doesn’t have the ability to play defense.
Conversely, we also need to see how Oduya responds to the system in place in Atlanta (not to mention the logjam at defense).
As for Patrice Cormier and Bergfors…if I recall, you have projections based on performance in certain junior leagues, and being just under a point-per in the QMJHL doesn’t translate well (especially after 4 years in the league). Despite Bergfors draft position, I’m not sold. He’s an atrocious skater, so unless he has size (which he doesn’t) he’s going to have to do a lot to overcome that problem and consistently score.
The 1st rounder is the main value of the trade, because the Thrashers have some pretty decent scouts working for them. If Kovalchuk stays in Jersey and fits himself to the Devils’ system, this is a win for Sweet Lou.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 6, 2010 1:58 AM EST reply actions
- by “4 years in the league” I mean 4 years in the QMJHL
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 6, 2010 1:59 AM EST up reply actions
Kovalchuk’s GAON/60 and GAOFF/60 are equal. At least on paper, he’s not the defensive liability that Brad Richards or Eric Staal are.
Again, on paper, Oduya for Salmela is pretty close to a push. Oduya may be a little better, he he is a lot more expensive. Plus moving Oduya frees up the money to resign Paul Martin.
That leaves Bergfors, Cormier, and a low first-round for Kovalchuk and the pick flip. A slow developing depth scorer, a young goon, and a chance at a productive NHL player for an elite scorer. Even if NJ is just renting Kovalchuk, that looks pretty good to me.
by DoctorMyBrainHurts on Feb 6, 2010 9:56 AM EST reply actions
Kovalchuk ES ON GF/GA from Gabe’s stats site:
2008 60-72 = -12
2009 68-71 = -3
2008 44-38 = +6
This probably the best year of his career on that department.
His Power Play Goals look impressive until you begin to factor in the extreme amount of PP TOI he gets.
The TEAM Power Play goal scoring rate is right around the NHL average—so he’s not pushing them to new heights.
So the TEAM is around the league average when he is on the ice and both ES and PP. You can blame it on weak linemates but there are other superstars that manage to pull the people they play with. I’ve very happy the Thrashers didn’t commitment $101 million to a guy who doesn’t appear to be a big difference maker for his club—despite the gaudy counting stats.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
Falconer – does Kovalchuk affect fan interest or ticket sales? I would imagine yes and in a big way, but I’m willing to be shown the light if that’s not the case.
In any case, my sense of it is that Kovalchuk is not a guy you want to sign to difference-making money but renting him on a deep squad for soft minutes is a pretty easy decision.
I don’t watch much ATL hockey but I remember Mudcrutch looked at the elite EV point producers in the league and found that overwhelmingly they were EV-plus players.
Now circumstances plays a huge role in that, on many teams the big point producers are being given opportunities because, well, it helps their team win. And I would imagine that there could be a reason why an EV-point producer was also an EV-minus, maybe he’s a 1A talent but also being counted on to play tough minutes, maybe goaltending was horrendous behind him, etc. However the way that MC’s list shook out, just about every player was able to overcome all that and post EV-pluses.
Now looking at Kovalchuk, I looked at his ZoneStart and his rank on ATL jumps from year to year but it appears the ice is tilted towards the ATL net all the time anyway, and that’s probably your sense of it as well. And in 07/08 and 08/09 the EVSV% behind Kovalchuk was truly horrendous, and maybe he owns part of that but surely not all of it.
But the fact remains: when you look at the population of elite EV point-producers, just about everyone was able to overcome their various circumstances (ranging from bad to good, obviously) and post EV-pluses. So I end up coming to your conclusion (although much more circuitously) that the guy might not be a difference-maker.
However, I think you look at his offensive talent and the fact that ATL appears to be a weak EV team based on how the ice tilts, and I would imagine a team like NJD, given the opportunity, gladly replaces Bergfors (a poor player by just about any measure) with Kovalchuk and they’re laughing. And probably don’t bother to sign him next season.
In any case, my sense of it is that Kovalchuk is not a guy you want to sign to difference-making money but renting him on a deep squad for soft minutes is a pretty easy decision.
I should also clarify by saying, if Kovalchuk is a dude who drives fan interest and gate revenue, then considerations outside his ability to play hockey become relevant and then not signing him becomes a bbad move.
re: ticket sales. My experience as a fan includes Kovalchuk in Atlanta and young Bondra in Washington. Goal scorers are nice but wins sell tickets. If you’re a season ticket holder you sign up to see a lot of good games, not to watch one player collect 45-50 goals. But that’s my take on it, other people might disagree.
re: When used properly stats cause us to take a harder look at our favorite players. When Corsi first came out I was in denial about Kovalchuk’s ugly numbers, but over time I began to watch more closely to see WHY he had such a brutal shot differential. Ultimately this led me to ask if Kovalchuk a great player who was dragged down by a bad team, or is it the case that the Thrashers were a bad team BECAUSE he wasn’t more of a difference maker?
If you look at almost any metric the Thrashers best player this year has been Nik Antropov not Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk is enjoying his first ES plus season with Antropov on his line—why is that? Kovalchuk is cheats off his wing and fails to get the puck out nearly every game—which results in his line being trapped in their own zone for extended periods of time.
When Kovalchuk does get the puck he flies down the ice and rips a hard shot which usually produces a hard long rebound that is quickly cleared or (even worse) quickly transitioned into a rush the other way. Because Kovalchuk is poor at winning the puck along the wall in the OZ so if the Thrashers don’t carry it in cleanly they would rarely get a shot out of it. Antropov cleaned up a ton of this mess by acting like a 3rd defenseman in the DZ and he’s simply terrific at winning pucks along the boards in the OZ which enables additional shots on a possession.
The reason that Kovalchuk has a brutal Corsi number over his career is because a) he does things that make it VERY easy for the opposition team to get additional chances and b) he is rather selective with his shots (unlike Ovechkin). I’m not crying about him departing. I think signing him long turn for huge money would have been a potentially crippling mistake. Frankly, I just got tired of all the errors that cost ATL games and I was ready to move on.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
interesting to get your perspectives on Kovy, falconer, seeing as you watch the team so often. all that you said here jives with my intuition about him as a thrasher.
by sunnymehta.com on Feb 10, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with you totally re: ticket sales. One thing the trade wont dramatically improve is the NJD ticket sales. They played to only 15,204 “announced” fans his first night, and we all know “announced” attendance is higher than “paid” attendance, which is higher than “actual bodies in the seats.” But I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt based upon the impending huge snow storm’s likely effect on the turnout.
The reality is that the Devils have their fan base, and it consistently gives them 85-90% capacity during the regular season. In the playoffs, if they play a strong opponent in the early rounds (ie, Rangers), they will sell out, and if they dont, they will still play to under a full house until they get deep into the playoffs. Years of consistently icing a winning team doesnt change that, the new building (one of if not the nicest in the league) didnt change that, and I dont think Kovalchuk alone is going to change that. The Devils fan base has not proven to be that dynamic.
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