Frequently Asked Questions #5: Penalty +/-
This is Part 5 in a many part series of frequently-asked statistical hockey questions. Please take a look at Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4 if you haven't had a chance to already.
We've always known that some players have the skills to draw penalties, but it's only recently that the NHL has rigorously recorded their identities (not that the total numbers are posted on the stats pages at NHL.com or any other major commercial stats site, but that's another story). And of course, some players, like Daniel Carcillo or Jarkko Ruutu, draw lots of penalties but commit many more themselves. It should go without saying that if it's good news for your team that you're going to the box with someone else, then you are not one of the best players on your team.
The skill I'd like to highlight today is "drawing non-coincidental penalties." In other words, I'd like to look at players who force other players into taking penalties, but don't take them themselves. There is one player who's so good at this that he led the 2nd place guy in the league by 70% at 5-on-5 this past season. Think about that for a second - that's a huge gap in performance. Alexander Ovechkin took a ridiculous number of shots last year - 528 - which is the second-most ever behind Phil Esposito's surly 550 in 1970-71. And yet Ovechkin was only 42% ahead of second-place Eric Staal. Wayne Gretzky had 92 goals in 1981-82 and Mike Bossy was second with 64 - that's still only 44%.
The guy with the outer-worldly penalty drawing talent is none other than the Los Angeles Kings' Dustin Brown. Brown drew 49 more minor penalties at 5-on-5 in 2008-09 than he took - far ahead of second-place Cal Clutterbuck, who had 29, and Jarome Iginla, who had 28. (The complete lists of players by penalties drawn per 60 minutes are available here for 2007-08 and here for 2008-09.)
For such an unheralded stat, it certainly is valuable. Those 49 extra penalties that Brown drew (which doesn't include penalties he drew while killing penalties himself or to turn a 5-on-4 into a 5-on-3) were worth approximately 10 goals - or more than +1.5 wins. The average value of a top two forward is +1.4 wins, so if Brown did nothing else while he was on the ice, like score 24 goals, he would be one of the top 30 or 40 forwards in the league. When you combine his accomplishments last season, he was probably one of the ten-most valuable forwards in the league. And yet if you go to any mainstream hockey stats site, you can't find out anything about a player's talent for drawing penalties.
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Quick questions
1) Do you calculate by these by the designation in the PBP file now? I thought at first you were just using whether a given player was on the ice when a penalty was called, reasoning that the scorers were too often noting the wrong guy as the “drawer”.
2) Do you screen out 10 minute misconducts, since they don’t affect the on-ice strength of the two teams?
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
I pull these from the PBP file. In 2006-07, I was grabbing everyone who was on the ice.
I screen out 10-minute misconducts.
Good deal
I’ll stop tracking this on my own, then!
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
Great information to have. Since it is not published mainstream, do you know of any bloggers that archive them league wide?
by ThrashersRecaps on Oct 14, 2009 9:34 PM EDT reply actions

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