Sitting with a 75% penalty kill percentage, the Winnipeg Jets currently hold onto the 6th worst conversion rate in the entire NHL. Rick Bowness and Scott Arniel had the holiday season to hopefully come up with something to turn this trend around, but I thought I might give them a hand by looking at how the Jets PK compares to the top 5 franchises.
Here’s how often the above teams were short-handed:
Los Angeles Kings (91), Dallas Stars (103), Boston Bruins (120), New York Rangers (98), Philadelphia Flyers (105), & Winnipeg Jets (96).
As a comparison, here are the most penalized NHL teams this season and their number of PK opportunities:
Anaheim Ducks (149), Detroit Red Wings (122), Boston Bruins (120), Colorado Avalanche (120), Minnesota Wild & Montreal Canadiens (115).
**only the St. Louis Blues (90) and the LA Kings (91) have less PK opportunities than the Winnipeg Jets.
In case that chart above is just a blur of numbers to you, I will do my best to breakdown what I think they show. Despite being far from an expert about the NHL’s advanced stats, there are things that point to areas of improvement for Winnipeg’s coaching staff in the data.
Differences between Corsi & Fenwick Stats:
- The numbers show the Jets are allowing their opponents 88.79% of the shots attempts and 86.48% of the unblocked shot attempts, but those numbers aren’t much different from some of the top penalty killing teams (LA/NYR). The Boston Bruins & Dallas Stars are a bit better (83-85%), but the Philadelphia Flyers’ aggressive PK is definitely the cream of the NHL (75-80% shots against).
- So are blocked shots the key? Probably not as Winnipeg stops 8.3% of shot attempts at their goalie, which is not that statistically different than the top PK teams (DAL – 9.3%, LA – 8.7%, BOS – 8.4%, NYR – 8.3%, & PHI – 7.8%).
Differences between Goals & Expected Goals Stats:
- Not a whole lot to glean from these numbers, other than them possibly showing that the Jets are creating less short-handed scoring chances than most of the elite penalty killing franchises (Boston hasn’t scored any SH goals so far, but are creating more chances than Winnipeg). Another thing is that teams typically score more than the expected goal category, and only the Jets (-0.4) and the Bruins (-11.82) failed to do that.
- Three of the top teams are scoring at an amazing pace at 4 on 5, with the Flyers getting almost 39% of the goals scored when down a man, the Stars with 25%, and the Kings sitting at 23.5%. All three of those teams are scoring at a much higher rate than expected, as their xG%’s are much lower than the actual numbers. LA might be the most surprising example of this, as the Kings have less expected goals than the Jets while short-handed (7.5%), but are scoring 16% higher than that. Philadelphia’s 7 goals scored to 11 goals against is down right amazing as they are almost getting 20% of the expected goals during 4 on 5 play.
Differences between Save Percentage Stats:
- It is in this grouping of stats that Winnipeg’s biggest weakness at 4 on 5 is exposed. The Jets’ goaltenders (83.8%) are saving 5.5 to 8% less shots than the top penalty killing franchises (89-91.8%). And it only gets worse when you look at the other categories. On shots that are considered scoring chances by Natural Stat Trick, our goalies (74.71%) are stopping 10 to 14% less than the elite teams (89-85%). On high danger attempts, the Peg’s tenders have shut down a paltry 67.39%, which is far from the top 5 PK squads (79.6-97.7%) – equaling a whopping 12 to 30% gap. LA’s high danger save percentage is ridiculous, by the way.
- Now before we start burning effigies of Connor Hellebuyck, let us consider his overall game. Currently, Winnipeg’s starter is leading the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected with 12.9 robberies (VAN’s Demko is at 12.8 & VEG’s Hill at 12.6). Hellebuyck is even better at 5 on 5, with 14.4 goals saved above expected and another 1st place finish (NYI’s Sorokin 12.3 & VAN’s Demko 10.3 are next).
- However, there is no doubt that Bucky isn’t amongst the elite tenders when down a player or two, as his -2.1 goals saved above expected isn’t close to the league leaders (NYR’s Shesterkin 6.7 & LA’s Talbot 6.1).
- So is this just the norm for Hellebuyck? Does he always let in a higher percentage on the powerplay? Well, the answer to that is yes and no. When you look at the past 7 seasons (including the current one), you will find that Connor has had a negative goals saved above expected at 4 on 5 in four of the seven years. His current -2.1 is the worst of this data set (-2.0, -1.8, & -1.1), so you might expect a slight improvement over the rest of the season. His highs over those years were 4.5 goals saved above expected in 2017-18 and 4.1 last season, while he also had a 1.5 season in 2021-22. While I doubt he can catch his career highs, he might get near the 1.5 mark if he and his teammates can manage to tighten things up when one of them is in the sin bin.
- Over the past 6 seasons, Hellebuyck has put up save percentages on high danger attempts (at 4 on 5) of .574, .481, .596, .448 (Vezina), .463, & .442. With this season’s HDSV% at .417, I think the coaching staff can expect marginal improvement from Bucky based on his historical trends.
- I did find it a bit interesting that 3 of Hellebuyck’s 4 negative saves above expected seasons have come when he is teamed up with Laurent Brossoit. Over his career with the Jets, Brossoit has saved close to the expected amount of shots at 4 on 5, with HDSV% of .585, .500, & .643 in his previous years with Winnipeg. This season’s .333 is well below his previous numbers, so once again it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect improvement for Brossoit as well.
Final Conclusions:
Hellebuyck’s strengths – positioning, using large frame – might not work as well when the opponents have the extra space on the power play. That room means more passing options, making it harder for Bucky to predict where the next shot is going to come from and be in position to make a save. It also means a higher percentage of cross-ice passes being completed, making Winnipeg’s starter have to react to make the saves. When I think of tenders who were great at reacting to surprises, images of Grant Fuhr and Dominic Hasek stoning people pop into my mind and their “highlight” reels would be much longer than Hellebuyck’s. Playing a more positional standup game doesn’t mean that Bucky can’t be an elite or even great goaltender, all you have to do is remember a guy named Ken Dryden lifting numerous Cups to see that approach can work out for both the goalie and the franchise. But with his two best 4 on 5 seasons only netting him a 10th place and a top 20 finish in the NHL in saves above expected, I don’t think Hellebucyk will ever be a game changer on the PK.
That is why the rest of the team has to play better to improve Winnipeg’s special teams play. I’m sure the stats are out there somewhere, but I would like to see the percentage of time an opponent has puck possession in the Jets’ zone while on the PP and also the percentage of zone entries Winnipeg has denied while short-handed & how those compare to the rest of the NHL. Since I don’t have those numbers I will have to rely on the ol’ eye test and that tells me our team would be among the worst of the NHL in those categories.
When I think of the keys to good penalty killing, it starts off with winning that first draw and clearing the zone. As we are well aware, Winnipeg is not an elite face-off team, but they have been better this season. Unfortunately, one of the players having a worse than typical season at the dot is also one of the key PKers (Adam Lowry). That has resulted in the opponent’s frequently getting set up right from the start, immediately making the kill more difficult. Using the stats to emphasize this point, while the Los Angeles Kings have had less PK opportunities (91) than the Winnipeg Jets (96), they have spent more time short-handed (167.43 mins) than the Jets (153.48). In other words, Winnipeg has been allowing quite a few PP goals against early in the kill.
Once you have cleared your zone, the main focuses are swapping players and getting prepared to make it difficult for the PP team to re-enter the zone. I’m sure some poor line changes have led to chances against, but no glaring example is entering my mind at this point. However, the zone entries are definitely an issue hurting the Jets’ penalty killers likelihood of success. In my mind, Winnipeg probably allows 80 to 90% of entry attempts to be successful, while it seems the Jets own powerplay probably has a clean entry only 50 to 60% of the time. Who knows how accurate those numbers really are, maybe plus or minus 10%?
With the PP set up, the Winnipeg Jets do an adequate job of blocking shots & passing lanes and also don’t allow a high number of cross-ice passes in the mid-to-high slot area. The top PK teams have shown that either passive or aggressive units can excel, but the Jets are firmly in the passive category. While I have nothing against that design, there are times when pressure does need to be applied while down a man. A low box is excellent early on in a shift, but once time drags on, tiredness makes it much more difficult to keep your gaps tight and push players out of the low slot.
When I think of the types of goals against Winnipeg’s PK this season, four different types jump out to me. The first is to be expected from a low passive box system, with at least a few PP goals coming from defensemen with space high in the zone. The second type is going to come on any powerplay eventually, with goals on those cross-ice 1 timers, but I don’t think the Jets give up an exorbitant amount of them. The third and fourth examples expose similar weaknesses in the areas directly surrounding Winnipeg’s goaltenders. Even at my advanced age, I can recall at least three examples where Bucky or Brossoit made the save on a 1 timer only for the rebound to be netted by an uncovered player near the blue paint. I can also recall at least two PP goals against where a defender went to the ice and ended up blocking an attempted pass across the crease, only to have Winnipeg lose the scramble in front battle.
So how do the Jets improve things going forward? Well, without acquiring a monster defenseman or two to clear the front of the net, I think they have to work on improving all aspects marginally to get a bigger boost over the second half of the season. Namely, winning more draws to start a kill off on the right foot, making it harder for teams to enter the Jets’ zone, and being aggressive enough to avoid those deadly 1 to 1.5 minute PK shifts for the defensemen, sapping their strength and making it impossible for them to gain the proper positioning.
What changes do you think Winnipeg needs to make? Personnel swaps? More aggression? Scheifele has been the Jets best face-off man this season, do you consider using him on the PK more often? While you are waiting for tonight’s game against Chicago to start, might as well let me hear your thoughts in the comments section below. Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas.
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