How many points does the average 1st liner in the NHL get each regular season? What’s the typical production from forwards getting second line minutes? And how do Winnipeg Jet forwards compare to those averages?
Those are the questions that started my quest to do some kind of review on the matter. Many hurdles immediately popped into my head. I don’t have an encyclopedic memory of every NHL teams’ line ups, nor how to deal with the impact of injuries or trades on line combinations, NHL coaches mixing up their lines to increase productivity over the season, etc.
In the end, I decided to focus on time on ice (TOI) to determine where players fit into a team’s forward lineup. My “first liners” approximately include the top 100 players in TOI, the “second liners” are approximately the next 100 forwards, while my “third & fourth lines” include 142 and 230 skaters respectively.
Using the 2022-23 NHL regular season stats, I started to plow through the data and discovered that a total of 619 forwards played at least one NHL game (average of 19.3 per team). Upon a deeper review, I realized that 50 skaters played less than 5 NHL games and ended up with no points, so omitting them left a total of 569 forwards in the data set. To give you an idea of how many forwards that is, if every NHL team was completely healthy for a regular season and never took a forward out of the lineup, then 384 forwards would get into games (32 teams @ 4 lines @ 3 players per line). So that kind of shows you how many players get inserted into NHL lineups throughout a season, whether that is due to injury-related reasons or just players under-performing.
With TOI per game for forwards ranging from 22:23 (Connor McDavid) to 1:45 (Shane Bowers), there is quite the swing in ice time. I set to work trying to establish categories for each line and here is what I came up with:
1st Line: 22:23 to 18:00 mins per game (approx. 100 players)
2nd Line: 17:59 to 16:00 mins per game (approx. 100 players)
3rd Line: 15:59 to 13:00 mins per game (approx. 150 players)
4th Line: 12:59 to 6:34 mins per game (approx. 230 players)
I will be first to admit these divisions are far from perfect. For example, only 92 players from last season fit into the 1st line category, which is less than the necessary minimum of 96 (32 teams @ 3 forwards). Some teams (DAL & SEA) only had 1 forward in the “1st line” category, while others had up to 5 (EDM, COL, OTT, STL, & SJ).
Players with lots of special team ice-time can vault into a higher category, especially when they get on the ice when their teams are on the powerplay and penalty killing. While the numbers I came up with aren’t perfect, I believe they still should give us a fairly accurate representation of each lines’ production. Based on my categories, here are the average amount of points scored for each line:
1st Line: average of .9403 pts/game or 77 pts over 82 games
2nd Line: average of .6103 pts/game or 50 pts over 82 games
3rd Line: average of .4197 pts/game or 34 pts over 82 games
4th Line: average of .253435 pts/game or 20.8 pts over 82 games
To make the comparison of NHL averages to last season’s Winnipeg Jets players more accurate, I opted to delve a bit deeper by dividing the 1st and 2nd lines into two smaller categories (A-B), the 3rd line into three categories (A-C), and the 4th line into six (A-F).
Below you will see the breakdowns of these divisions, including the high and low scorers for each category with their respective average TOI per game & projected output for a full 82 game season.
First Liners: (minimum 18 minutes TOI)
92 players: 22:23 to 18:00 TOI – average of .9403 pts/game or 77 pts over 82 games
1A: (50 players) 22:23 to 19:16 TOI / 1.03496 pts per game / 84.9 pts in 82 games
High: C. McDavid – EDM: 22:23 (153 pts in 82 gm)
Low: JT Compher – COL: 20:32 (52 pts in 82 gm) & B. Jenner – CBJ: 20:12 (54 pts)
WPG: K. Connor: 20:31 (80 pts in 82 gm) & M. Scheifele: 20:28 (69 pts in 82 gm)
1B: (42 players) 19:15 to 18:00 TOI / .8276 pts per game / 67.9 pts in 82 games
High: J. Robertson – DAL: 18:50 (109 pts in 82 gm)
Low: A. Wennberg – SEA: 18:41 (38 pts in 82 gm) & A. Copp – DET: 18:09 (42 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: P. Dubois: 18:27 (71 pts in 82 gm)
Second Liners: (16 to 17.9 mins TOI)
105 players: 17:59 to 16:00 TOI – average of .6103 pts/game or 50 pts over 82 games
2A: (58 players) 17:59 to 16:48 TOI / .65297 pts per game / 53.5 pts in 82 games
High: K. Fiala – LA: 17:35 (85 pts in 82 gm), J. Skinner – BUF: 17:23 (85 pts in 82 gm), & R. Hintz – DAL: 17:33 (84 pts in 82 gm).
Low: P. Kurashev – CHI: 17:25 (29 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: B. Wheeler: 17:02 (63 pts in 82 gm)
2B: (47 players) 16:47 to 16:00 TOI / .5577 pts per game / 45.7 pts in 82 games
High: A. Kuzmenko – VAN: 16:14 (75 pts in 82 gm), T. Toffoli – CGY: 16:36 (73 pts in 82 gm), & J. McCann – SEA: 16:20 (73 pts in 82 gm)
Low: N. Bjugstad – EDM: 16:12 (30.5 pts in 82 gm) & M. Appleton – WPG: 16:01 (32 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: N. Niederreiter: 16:54 (49 pts in 82 gm), A. Iafallo (LA): 16:18 (50 pts in 82 gm), & M. Appleton: 16:01 (32 pts in 82 gm)
Third Liners: (13 to 15.9 mins TOI)
142 players: 15:59 to 13:00 TOI – average of .4197 pts/game or 34 pts over 82 games
3A: (54 players) 15:59 to 14:46 TOI / .4883 pts per game / 40 pts in 82 games
High: J. Benn – DAL: 15:47 (78 pts in 82 gm) & N. Ehlers – WPG: 15:38 (69 pts in 82 gm)
Low: L. Eller – WSH/COL: 14:47 (22.5 pts in 82 gm), S. Kuraly – CBJ: 15:04 (23 pts in 82 gm), & N. Bonino – SJ/PIT (25 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: N. Ehlers: 15:38 (69 pts in 82 gm), A. Lowry: 15:38 (36 pts in 82 gm), G. Vilardi (LA): 15:36 (53.5 pts in 82 gm), C. Perfetti: 14:58 (48 pts in 82 gm), & V. Namestnikov: 14:52 (41 pts in 82 gm)
3B: (50 players) 14:45 to 13:50 TOI / .4071 pts per game / 33.4 pts in 82 games
High: T. Novak – NSH: 14:39 (69 pts in 82 gm), J. Vrana – DET/STL: 14:33 (52.5 pts in 82 gm), & F. Chytil – NYR: 14:41 (50 pts in 82 gm)
Low: S. Farrell – MTL: 13:52 (14 pts in 82 gm), T. Jeannot – NSH/TB: 14:32 (19.5 pts in 82 gm), & C. Cizikas – NYI: 13:52 (21 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: none
3C: (38 players) 13:49 to 13:00 TOI / .3389 pts per game / 27.8 pts in 82 games
High: K. Kapanen – PIT/STL: 13:41 (42 pts in 82 gm) & D. Guenther – ARZ: 13:06 (37 pts in 82 gm)
Low: C. Sillinger – CBJ: 13:18 (14 pts in 82 gm), J. Greenway – MIN: 13:30 (14.5 pts in 82 gm), & Z. Sanford – NSH: 13:29 (15.5 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: M. Barron: 13:15 (25 pts in 82 gm)
Fourth Liners: (under 13 mins TOI)
230 players: 12:59 to 6:34 TOI – average of .253435 pts/game or 20.8 pts over 82 games
4A: (11 players) 12:59 to 12:48 TOI / .3278 pts per game / 26.9 pts in 82 games
High: R. Greig – OTT: 12:54 (37 pts in 82 gm), P. Kessel – VEG: 12:48 (36 pts in 82 gm), & B. Lizotte – LA: 12:56 (34.5 pts in 82 gm)
Low: Z. Girgensons – BUF: 12:58 (18.5 pts in 82 gm), W. Allison – PHI: 12:53 (20.5 pts in 82 gm), & T. Blueger – VEG: 12:54 (21 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: none
4B: (100 players) 12:47 to 11:00 TOI / .28704 pts per game / 23.54 pts in 82 games
High: D. Sprong – SEA: 11:25 (57 pts in 82 gm), A. Kaliyev – LA: 11:40 (41 pts in 82 gm), S. Noesen – CAR: 12:19 (38 pts in 82 gm), & O. Wahlstrom – NYI: 12:09 (37.5 pts in 82 gm)
Low: R. Johnson – CHI: 11:00 (8.5 pts in 82 gm), K. Kuhlman – WPG: 12:45 (10 pts in 82 gm), M. Entwistle – CHI: 11:55 (12.5 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: K. Kuhlman: 12:45 (10 pts in 82 gm), S. Gagner: 12:10 (24 pts in 82 gm), & K. Stenlund: 11:38 (14 pts in 82 gm)
4C: (46 players) 10:59 to 10:12 TOI / .21622 pts per game / 17.7 pts in 82 games
High: M. Geekie – SEA: 10:27 (33 pts in 82 gm), P. Holmberg – TOR: 10:25 (29 pts in 82 gm), & D. Heinen – PIT: 10:45 (28 pts in 82 gm)
Low: S. Maenalanen – WPG: 10:19 (13 pts in 82 gm), A. Watson – OTT: 10:13 (12 pts in 82 gm) & P. Kelly – OTT: 10:30 (6 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: J. Harkins: 10:49 (19 pts in 82 gm), K. Reichel: 10:33 (41 pts in 82 gm), A. Jonsson-Fjallby: 10:27 (23 pts in 82 gm), & S. Maenalanen: 10:19 (13 pts in 82 gm)
4D: (35 players) 10:11 to 9:09 TOI / .19254 pts per game / 15.8 pts in 82 games
High: W. Duehr – CGY: 10:11 (33.5 pts in 82 gm) & K. Kostin – EDM: 10:03 (30 pts in 82 gm)
Low: Z. Kassian – ARZ: 9:09 (3 pts in 82 gm) & K. Bellows – PHI: 9:41 (9 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: M. Eyssimont: 10:11 (22 pts in 82 gm), D. Gustafsson: 10:05 (11 pts in 82 gm), & R. Kupari (LA): 10:05 (19 pts in 82 gm)
4E: (27 players) 9:08 to 7:12 TOI / .24081 pts per game / 19.7 pts in 82 games
High: J. Gauthier – OTT: 8:38 (20 pts in 82 gm) & J. Lauko – BOS: 8:51 (25 pts in 82 gm)
Low: J. Leschyshyn – VEG/NYR: 9:07 (0 pts in 82 gm)
WPG: D. Toninato: 7:55 (16 pts in 82 gm)
4F: (11 players) 7:11 to 6:34 TOI / .09191 pts per game / 7.5 pts in 82 games
WPG: none
Plus/Minus Point Production versus NHL Average Based on Total Ice Time (2023-24):
* Newly acquired players from LA using their stats from the Kings.
Ehlers +29
Vilardi* +13.5
Wheeler +9
Perfetti +8
Eyssimont +6
Jonsson-Fjallby +5
Iafallo* +4
Dubois +3
Kupari* +3
Namestnikov +1
Harkins +1
Gagner E
Barron -3
Lowry -4
Connor -5
Niederreiter -5
Gustafsson -5
Maenalanen -5
Stenlund -9
Appleton -11
Kuhlman -14
Scheifele -16
It is important to note that I used total time on ice in my calculations, so players with lots of short-handed time might be expected to be slightly below average in production. The opposite is also true, when a player’s PP time takes up a significant portion of their total ice time. While I understand that the review is far from perfect, but it should at least give us an idea of who made the most of their ice time last year.
My review definitely supports what the fans are saying about needing to give Nik Ehlers more ice time, since he scored 29 more points than the average player with his TOI. Gabe Vilardi is another player that used top-end 3rd line minutes to produce in the upper echelon of their category. The other two players involved in that trade (Alex Iafallo & Rasmus Kupari) were above average, so hopefully that bodes well for this year’s version of the Jets. Young Cole Perfetti is another bright spot from last season’s low scoring team, scoring 8 points more than the average player in his group.
On the opposite end, guys like Mark Scheifele or Karson Kuhlman were way below average for their minutes played (yet Scheifele didn’t have PK minutes to use as an excuse like the other players on the bottom of the list).
Players like Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton had lots of PK time, so they should be expected to be lower scoring than their peers. Appleton’s TOI also puts him at the bottom of 2nd liners’ TOI in my review, when he should probably be compared against high ice-time 3rd liners (would improve his rating to -8).
Well, those are some of my thoughts from this time-killing enterprise, would enjoy hearing what you took from it.
