The top two franchises in the NHL’s Central Division met last night, so let’s find out who ended up taking sole possession of first place.
The Winnipeg Jets started out hitting, as Dillon and Lowry threw a couple nice checks against the Stars’ Dellandrea. While Dallas had a bit more jump in their steps, the Jets were doing an adequate job of limiting the chances against Hellebuyck. However, that fell apart due to three counter-attacks by the Stars due to Winnipeg errors in the high defensive or neutral zones. The first mistake was by young Perfetti, when he uselessly threw a puck off the boards in the defensive zone despite having plenty of time to find a better option. The puck was intercepted and one pass later, Dallas had an early lead at home as they returned to controlling the flow of play. Winnipeg’s defensive systems & Hellebuyck combined to keep the game close for the next 10 minutes and the Jets had their best chance when Scheifele almost batted a rebound out of the air (see big blue circle in MoneyPuck’s shot chart below). A neutral zone turnover by the 1st line caused more Dallas offensive zone cycling and when Connor lost his defensive coverage, a 1 timer ended up in the back of the Jets’ net. Less than 2 minutes later, rookie Stankoven backchecks to lift Appleton’s stick in the neutral zone and the Stars were back on the attack. Hellebuyck was able to make an initial save or two, but Dallas’ rookie was able to eventually bang the puck home during a net-front scramble. An ugly period where Winnipeg was consistently out-played, but it was key mistakes that ended up costing them. See the Stars’ 1st period dominance on MoneyPuck’s shot chart and advanced stats.
First Period MoneyPuck Stats: Score: 3 to 0 for the Stars, shots 12 to 10 for the Jets, 70% Deserve To Win for the Stars, Expected Goals – all situations (1.40-0.72 DAL), & 5 on 5 (1.40-0.72 DAL)
I will give the Winnipeg Jets some credit, as they were able to pick up the level of their game despite a huge deficit versus a good defensive team. The visitors clearly controlled much of the play in the middle frame and got rewarded late in the period when they got their first powerplay attempt. The top unit couldn’t get anything going, so they passed the baton off to the 2nd group. The Jets’ PP was able to get set up as the penalty kill neared an end and the cycle worked its way to Ehlers in the left face-off circle. The speedy Dane cut towards the middle of the ice before trying a pass through a couple of defenders to Namestnikov net-side. Luckily, the pass deflected off one defender’s stick and then hit another Stars’ skate, only to end up going right to Vladdy for an easy goal to break the shut-out. MoneyPuck’s advanced stats show how well Winnipeg played in the 2nd, actually coming back to lead the expected goal battle by a slim margin.
After Two Periods MoneyPuck Stats: Score: 3 to 1 for the Stars, shots 20 to 20 tie, 54% Deserve to Win for the Jets, Expected Goals – all situations (2.13-2.11 WPG) & 5 on 5 (2.11-1.43 DAL)
Winnipeg had to open things up in the 3rd period if they wanted to come back and that gave Dallas plenty of looks on counter-attacks. Even with two powerplays for the Stars (including a short 5 on 3 advantage) and a bunch of extra man rushes, Hellebuyck closed the door on Dallas in the final frame giving his team hope. Unfortunately Bucky wasn’t rewarded by the rest of the team and the Jets ended up allowing the Stars to pile up the expected goals. Eventually an empty netter against sealed the victory to end a disappointing game for Winnipeg. It also gave the 1st place spot to the Dallas Stars…for now. Take note of the absolute explosion of xG’s for the home team (4.29) in the 3rd period in the stats/shot chart below.
After Three Periods MoneyPuck Stats: 78.4% Deserve to Win for the , Expected Goals – all situations (6.40-2.80 DAL) & 5 on 5 (2.83-1.72 DAL)
FINAL SCORE: DALLAS STARS 4 WINNIPEG JETS 1
SHOTS: DALLAS STARS 36 WINNIPEG JETS 26
Game Observations:
- Don’t have a lot of thoughts from the game…but it is pretty amazing that Connor Hellebuyck (.914 save %) can give up 3 goals in the 1st period and still end the game with 2.21 Goals Saved Above Expected at the end of the night.
- The Jets’ top 6 actually won the expected goals battle at 5 on 5, with the Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, & Gabriel Vilardi trio netting 56.1% and the Alex Iafallo, Sean Monahan, & Nikolaj Ehlers group getting 50.7%.
With the news that Vilardi has sustained an upper body injury and Rick Bowness saying that there is concern about his availability for the next game, the coaching staff will possibly have to work on some new line combinations. Will we finally see Nino Niederreiter promoted to the top six?
NEXT GAME: Winnipeg Jets @ Carolina Hurricanes – Saturday, March 2nd @ 11:30 am Central
Wow, a game that starts before noon. With Winnipeg’s tendency for slow starts, playing that early has me worried, especially against a quality team like the Canes.
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