Chevy snags another faller. Mocked as a mid-second round pick, the Jets snagged the offensive dynamo defenseman out of Saint John, Luke Green. Despite being the former 1st overall pick in the QMJHL draft, his stock isn't as high as it once was, but the talent is still definitely there. Getting picked by the Jets is no shock either. After looking at an older scouting report, he looks to fit the draft model quite well:
"Mobile Q defender with dynamic feet, separation gear, and top end acceleration. Constantly pushing the pace offensively Confident puck carrier with good hands and a quick release. hits the open man on the attack. Although not the finished product in his own end, he clearly has upside to be solid there based on his four direction mobility, ability to read and react, and the physicality that he has on occasion brought along. Just scratching the surface with the tools he has to develop. Still growing and will fill out. needs to get more muscle to compete the way he does as he climbs the ladder. His draft status as a first rounded has clouded, but there is plenty of time to improve before he gets auditions for the NHL." - Bill Placzek
Quintessential Chevy. Quintessential Jets.
Green's biggest strength is his offensive prowess. With an average of 35.5 points in his two years, and ranking as the highest scoring defenseman on his team, the potential is there for an exciting offensive defenseman.
The chart above showcases comparables to Luke Green using his 15-16 season with the DEV metric (via prospect-stats.com/DEV). Using just last season, this metric estimates that he has about a 33% chance to make the NHL. By comparison, Pittsburgh's selection with the 77th pick, Connor Hall has only a 6% chance using the same metric. Not going to preach this as gospel, but as a good showcase of the potential Green has. 33% is excellent for a 3rd round selection, as the average for first round players is around 45%.
Also note that Green's numbers in the 14-15 season were even better than last season. If he has an improved D+1 season, his odds could drastically improve.
Now this one is where the fun starts. In comparison to his teammate (and one of the three players Boston took instead of our friend Kyle Connor), Jakub Zboril, Green has passed Zboril in nearly every measure. There are obviously some variables contributing to this and it isn't 100% accurate, but at face value, it looks as if the Jets made out even better than expected with Connor.
AIH Author's Thoughts:
"Luke's skating is noteworthy. He moves well and gains speed quickly - especially when moving forward. He also scores at a decent clip. He has the look of a new age puck mover, but he's still very raw." - Truck
"Green was a pleasant suprise to have fallen to where he did this past summer, but there's likely a reason. In fact, I saw one scouting report offer up the words "not coachable" and "undisciplined". His production was good though, and word is that he's a heck of a skater, so there is some potential. But I see red flags, and those moved him down my list." - Arby
"Green will likely go back and spend some more time with Saint John of the QMJHL. A righty D, Green scored 10 goals and 25 assists in 61 games last season and was a +18. The Jets felt he was worth a draft pick and selected him this past draft in the 3rd round." - Andy
"Another right handed shot in the Jets system. A speedy, puck moving defenseman that can put up points from the blueline. He will spend a few seasons with the Moose once his junior career is over. Most likely a project player." - Ian
So to put it bluntly, I'm very excited about Luke Green. I just have a good feeling about the kid. I think he actually has a pretty good chance to exceed his comparables from the first chart. He's one of the few prospects that my expectations will not simmer for. After another year or two in the Q, Green should be ready to step into an NHL role. Whether or not he excels, is up to him. If he develops into what I believe he can, he could grow into the Jets' #2 right handed defenseman. A pairing of him and Joshua Morrissey would be incredibly fun to watch.
What do you think about Luke Green? Am I setting myself up for disappointment? Probably, but what's the harm in a little optimism? Do you think he could develop into something good? Let us know down in the comments!