Earlier, I wrote about the effect that the score has on shot counts. In a nutshell,when a team is down, it tends to outshoot its opponents. This effect is not constant throughout the game - there's very little difference in shot counts for the first two periods, but in the 3rd period, shot ratios are very extreme:
So what happens if we adjust shot totals for home/road, score and time? Surprisingly, not much - the standard deviation of the score effect adjustment is 0.45%. Over the last five years, the 2008-09 Boston Bruins had the largest expected increase in shot ratio, and that was barely 1%:
| Season | Team | Fenwick Raw | Fenwick Norm | Difference | Reg Win% |
| 2008-09 | bos | 50.3 | 51.3 | 1.064 | 646 |
| 2006-07 | ott | 51.0 | 52.0 | 0.956 | 585 |
| 2005-06 | det | 57.0 | 57.8 | 0.787 | 707 |
| 2009-10 | was | 51.4 | 52.1 | 0.720 | 659 |
| 2006-07 | nsh | 47.6 | 48.3 | 0.711 | 622 |
| 2006-07 | sj | 52.4 | 53.1 | 0.705 | 628 |
| 2005-06 | cgy | 51.2 | 51.9 | 0.697 | 561 |
| 2007-08 | det | 58.6 | 59.3 | 0.694 | 659 |
| 2008-09 | sj | 54.4 | 55.1 | 0.684 | 646 |
| 2008-09 | was | 54.6 | 55.3 | 0.678 | 610 |
At the other end, the adjustments are slightly more extreme - not surprisingly, because it's easier to put together a legendarily bad team than it is to build a comparably good one:
| Season | Team | Fenwick Raw | Fenwick Norm | Difference | Reg Win% |
| 2006-07 | edm | 48.2 | 47.4 | -0.812 | 390 |
| 2009-10 | edm | 45.2 | 44.4 | -0.825 | 329 |
| 2007-08 | atl | 42.9 | 42.1 | -0.830 | 415 |
| 2008-09 | tb | 47.4 | 46.6 | -0.834 | 293 |
| 2005-06 | stl | 48.5 | 47.7 | -0.837 | 256 |
| 2009-10 | tor | 53.1 | 52.3 | -0.879 | 366 |
| 2008-09 | col | 48.1 | 47.2 | -0.885 | 390 |
| 2006-07 | la | 50.3 | 49.4 | -0.923 | 329 |
| 2006-07 | phi | 47.2 | 46.0 | -1.221 | 268 |
| 2005-06 | pit | 45.0 | 43.7 | -1.374 | 268 |
Again, this year's Toronto Maple Leafs disaster makes an appearance - bad goaltending and a strange unwillingness to play to the score when they were winning makes them the rare truly bad team that legitimately outshot their opponents.
Overall, I think we don't have to worry too much about score effects at the team/season level - even the best and worst teams over the last five seasons are unlikely to need more than a 1% adjustment. Of course, score effects are incredibly significant at the game level and can not be ignored over a small number of shots.