Major props go to Olivier Bouchard, whose love of the Habs blinded him to Washington's unsustainably high shooting percentage. Re-read his piece for an example of what happens when instead of making shit up after the fact, you put your ass on the line and make an actual prediction beforehand. Several people who frequently contribute or comment here also had the sack to put some money on the Habs at +450.
I still think the Caps are a better team than the Habs, but I thought their scoring touch was overstated, and I also made the bold assertion prior to the series that:
These guys just got rolling on their site to track Stanley Cup odds and the like. I personally think they have Washington way overrated. So all of you Caps fans can go over there and tell them they're right!
Look, we're not doing anything fancy here. We're just looking at Corsi, assuming that shooting percentage regress to the mean, and accounting for goaltending just a little bit. And odds are that tells you who's going to win the series (Flyers notwithstanding.)