Behind the Net
Fenwick Page for 2011-12 is up-and-running
by Hawerchuk on Nov 21, 2011 7:03 AM EST
in Behind the Net
I added Fenwick tables for 2007-08 through 2010-11 yesterday, and I dropped the code into the daily data feed last night. Here's this year's data, which is updated daily:
2011-12 Regular Season Fenwick %
And yes, I realize that TOI is wrong - I need to add some code to pick up the number of games a team has played. All in due time!
Edit: TOI is now fixed.
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New Stats Pages: Fenwick % by Game Score (Alpha version...)
by Hawerchuk on Nov 20, 2011 12:03 PM EST
in Behind the Net
I think this is a sign that Fenwick/Corsi analysis has really taken hold. I've periodically posted Fenwick Tied numbers over the years, but it's only this season that people have started asking for them to be available every morning at behindthenet.ca. It was an incredibly rainy day here yesterday, so I finally found the time to write the code for it. This is the alpha version, so it's running in the old version of the site, and I haven't yet put it into the daily feed, so all you get is the last four seasons, with data for score tied and for up/down 1 and 2 goals, both at home and on the road:
I'm sure this will beget requests for further data categories...All in due time, so please bear with me as I roll this feature out. I'll work the code into the server in the next couple of days, so the 2011-12 season data will be available very soon. Enjoy!
Oh, and if you do find this data useful and feel so inclined, please make a donation to my favorite charity: Education in Need El Salvador. It's a great organization, and the kids, who I attempted to teach English on a trip to Latin America, are awesome!
And here's a primer on Advanced NHL Statistics, including Corsi and Fenwick analysis.
(btw, I already know playoff TOI is wrong...on the list...)
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Recent Radio Appearances
by Hawerchuk on Oct 4, 2011 11:26 PM EDT
in Behind the Net
Just in case you don't get enough of my rhapsodic waxings, you can hear me on the radio:
- Team 1040 AM, Vancouver, Oct 3, 2011: BMac and Taylor Show
- Sports Radio 1290, Winnipeg, Oct 1, 2011: Illegal Curve Radio
- Radio-Canada, Oct 1, 2011: Les samedis du monde
- AM 980 (CFPL), London, Sept 27, 2011: McArthur in the Morning [Sept. 27 Segment Two]
Slight Statistical Improvement: Corsi Qualcomp
by Hawerchuk on Jan 15, 2010 9:00 AM EST
in Behind the Net
Sunny Mehta pointed out a very good change to the Quality of Competition algorithm. Instead of using relative +/- (which includes just goals when a player is on or off the ice), it would be better if Qualcomp used the total shot volume while players were on the ice. Why? We already know that shot differential (aka Corsi) is a better predictor of future goal differential than goal differential itself is. Corsi also includes a much higher number of events than simple +/- does - approximately 25x.
The relationship between Qualcomp and Corsi Qualcomp is still very strong (the overall R^2 = 0.54), indicating that we were on the right track initially. You can see the results here - Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith are #1 and #2. I've only done this for 5v5 for the 2009-10 season; because of the genius way I wrote my database code, I have to make the same changes nine times in order to get this in to the entire site, which I'll do eventually.
I think of all the NHL teams, people out there pay closest attention to the Oilers matchups (even when the team is awful), so perhaps someone can give an opinion as to whether the Corsi Qualcomp is an improvement over regular Qualcomp:
| Player | CORSI QoC | Rank | Qualcomp | Rank |
| SHAWN HORCOFF | 1.092 | 1 | 0.017 | 1 |
| SHELDON SOURAY | 0.965 | 2 | -0.009 | 5 |
| GILBERT BRULE | 0.763 | 3 | -0.055 | 16 |
| RYAN STONE | 0.717 | 4 | -0.024 | 8 |
| PATRICK O'SULLIVAN | 0.677 | 5 | -0.011 | 7 |
| STEVE STAIOS | 0.600 | 6 | -0.009 | 5 |
| J-F JACQUES | 0.502 | 7 | -0.002 | 4 |
| TOM GILBERT | 0.447 | 8 | 0.002 | 3 |
| DUSTIN PENNER | 0.439 | 9 | -0.045 | 14 |
| ALES HEMSKY | 0.306 | 10 | 0.007 | 2 |
| LADISLAV SMID | 0.281 | 11 | -0.037 | 11 |
| SAM GAGNER | 0.273 | 12 | -0.047 | 15 |
| LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY | 0.097 | 13 | -0.072 | 18 |
| RYAN POTULNY | 0.039 | 14 | -0.034 | 10 |
| DENIS GREBESHKOV | 0.022 | 15 | -0.025 | 9 |
| ROBERT NILSSON | 0.017 | 16 | -0.062 | 17 |
| ANDREW COGLIANO | -0.277 | 17 | -0.040 | 12 |
| JASON STRUDWICK | -0.342 | 18 | -0.109 | 20 |
| ETHAN MOREAU | -0.444 | 19 | -0.041 | 13 |
| ZACHERY STORTINI | -0.807 | 20 | -0.092 | 19 |
There are some rather significant differences - I'm interested to hear if this works out better.
Why no 4-on-4 or 5-on-3 or 3-on-5?
by Hawerchuk on Jan 12, 2010 9:00 AM EST
in Behind the Net
If you've ever visited Behindthenet.ca, you'll notice that I don't lump all even-strength or man-advantage play together. Instead, 5-on-5 play is separated from 4-on-4, and 5-on-4 and 4-on-5 are separated from 5-on-3 and 3-on-5, which I find wholly justifiable based on the vastly different shot rates at each strength, and in the case of 4-on-4, the higher leverage and random outcomes of overtime. This has drawn the ire of some out there:
New Statistics Added to Behindthenet.ca: On-Ice Shot %, On-Ice Save %, PDO
by Hawerchuk on Oct 27, 2009 9:00 AM EDT
in Behind the Net
I'm taking a break from frequent posting this week to do a little website upgrade and maintenance. Oilers blogger and fan Bruce McCurdy suggested that I add PDO numbers, along with their components (Shot % and Save % while a player is on the ice.) I added them in the Corsi reports - you can find them here for the last three seasons:
Behind the Net stats are on the air
by Hawerchuk on Oct 2, 2009 1:03 PM EDT
in Behind the Net
Does anybody remember the old "SCTV is on the air"? Anyways, with the start of the NHL season, Behind the Net stats are back up and running. Some examples of what you can do with Behind the Net after the jump...
