By The Numbers: Jets sign Mathieu Perreault

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Kevin Cheveldayoff makes up for Chris Thorburn in a big way.

The Winnipeg Jets sign former Anaheim Duck, Mathieu Perreault, for three seasons at three million AAV. So, what do the numbers say about Perreault?

Mathieu Perreault - Age: 26 - Position: C - CapHit: 3x 3.0M

The Basics

Season Team(s) GP G A P TOI/60 S/60 Sh% FO% PenD
2011-2012 Capitals 63 16 14 30 11.6 4.8 26.7% 51.0% +3
2012-2013 Capitals 39 6 11 17 11.5 6.2 12.8% 51.0% 0
2013-2014 Ducks 69 18 25 43 13.7 7.4 15.0% 52.0% +1

Perreault brings value in being a good point producer. His shot production is on the uptrend which is a good sign that his strong point production is more likely to continue than collapse like Devin Setoguchi or Olli Jokinen.

Perreault is also an above average centre in the faceoff. Faceoffs are overrated by the media and fans often, but still are a part of the game in improving a team's chance to win. Perreault has also been a solid player in drawing more penalties than he takes, something the Jets could use a lot more of.

Usage

Screen_shot_2014-07-01_at_11.21.42_am_medium

Player usage chart from extraskater.com.


EV Percentage of Team's Available TOI 5 on 5
Season ZS% ZS%rel EVTOI% PPTOI% SHTOI% QoC TOI% QoT TOI%
2011-2012 52.4% +5.6% 21.6% 20.2% 0.4% 27.2% 28.7%
2012-2013 50.7% +4.5% 21.1% 23.0% 0.7% 26.9% 26.0%
2013-2014 53.6% +3.4% 23.6% 37.2% 0.6% 27.5% 27.2%

Over the last three seasons Perreault has been used predominately as a sheltered scorer, similarly to Jets' own Mark Scheifele. It will be interesting to see how Maurice deals with it. My guess is it will depend on the wingers with Scheifele and Perreault for who gets a tougher line matches, although both will likely get pushed into the offensive zone. Don't be surprised if this need for sheltering ends up hurting the Ladd-Little-Frolik line with taking more toughs.

Perreault also adds value on the power play, with being about league average for power play points per minute.

Underlying Numbers

Screen_shot_2014-07-01_at_11.08.16_am_medium

Season 5v5 TOI Corsi% relCorsi% dCF/20 dCA/20 dCorsi%
2011-2012 10.88 54.6% +5.9% +2.464 -1.842 +5.87%
2012-2013 10.41 52.7% +5.1% NA NA NA
2013-2014 11.34 51.6% +1.9% +0.966 +0.039 +1.26%

The numbers indicate that Perreault has done a good job, even with respect to the softer minutes he's been given. Two out of the past three years he's improved his team's puck possession by a higher percentage than the offensive zone start push he's been given.

For the two seasons we have dCorsi, we see that Perreault has been above average in improving the team's shot production and has been an okay shot suppressor. Overall, Perreault's results have been above average given line mates, line matching and offensive zone deployment.

There is some some worries that there is a trend downward. @MimicoHero was kind enough to donate Perreault's Z-Score chart:

Brebwkkciaa_dt0_medium

When it comes to scoring goals, assists, or points, suppression shots against, increasing shot production, or improving possession, Mathieu Perreault scores above league average in all categories. The trend in the shot metrics has been downward over the last three seasons, although his point scoring has been trending upwards.

Neato Fact: Perreault scores points

Perreault has been an elite 5v5 scorer. At 2.34 points per 60 minutes is the 18th highest point scorer with 1000+ mins between 2011-14. The three above are Brad Marchand, James Neal and Max Pacioretty. The three below are Patrick Sharp, Patrick Kane and Patrice Bergeron.

This scoring production places Perreault far above any of the Winnipeg Jets in point production:

Screen_shot_2014-07-01_at_12.40.26_pm_medium

So... Where does he fit? Does he even fit?

Earlier when discussing free agency and looking at some possible "moneypuck" pickups available we showed you this:

Untitled_medium

We already know that Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little and Michael Frolik are going to be playing in quadrant one, taking the team's toughest minutes. So where do the rest fall?


+Possession +Scorer
Evander Kane x x
Matthieu Perreault x x
Blake Wheeler
x
Mark Scheifele
x
Dustin Byfuglien*
x

*Dustin Byfuglien is a +possession player historically as a defenseman only

Already the Jets look poised to create offense at strong levels. When Mark Scheifele is you worst point producing forward per a minute, you know you are doing pretty good. Still, Jets are looking for one more top nine player. These type of players are the guys you want to start in the offensive zone as often as possible.

There is, however, a bit of a gap in players who promote possession at a solid level, especially since -as we've already discussed- even Perreault needs some sheltering to improve possession. Hopefully the Kevin Cheveldayoff picks up one more top 9 player, with emphasis on possession over scoring, even if it is a tradeoff for less scoring. The Jets' optimized middle 6 line up will likely depend on who the Jets sign as that additional player.

Cheveldayoff said he would still like to add another top six calibre player. By my estimate, and if the 65 million reported internal cap is true, the Jets have five million left in budget to improve their team. That's with Eric O`Dell and Michael Hutchinson taking simply the Jets qualifying offer, no more.

There are not too many players who both score and promote possession while fitting Chevy's MO of fast and smart left in the UFA pool.

The best players available in UFA (in alpha order):

Name POS GP Pts/GP Corsi% relCorsi ZS% rel ZS% EV TOI PP TOI SH TOI QoC TOI QoT TOI
David Booth L 66 0.29 52.0% +1.0% 45.1% -4.0% 25.9% 9.7% 0.9% 27.8% 28.3%
David Legwand C 83 0.61 49.5% +0.3% 49.2% -1.8% 27.7% 53.7% 2.8% 29.3% 30.0%
David Moss R 79 0.28 52.3% +2.5% 56.0% 6.3% 23.9% 8.6% 40.3% 28.4% 29.0%
Dustin Penner R 67 0.52 49.3% +3.0% 49.3% 0.3% 25.1% 36.8% 0.3% 29.2% 30.9%
Lee Stempniak R 73 0.47 47.5% +1.9% 47.4% -0.9% 29.9% 35.6% 25.4% 29.3% 31.7%
Mikhail Grabovski C 58 0.60 51.0% +4.0% 57.4% +13.8% 28.2% 27.7% 0.4% 28.7% 30.0%
Radim Vrbata R 80 0.64 51.3% +0.8% 52.5% 1.4% 29.1% 49.9% 7.9% 29.2% 30.3%
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