By The Numbers: St. John's IceCaps Season Review

Bruce Bennett

We take a deeper look into the numbers for the St. John's IceCaps

Recent discoveries have allowed for time on ice, quality of teammate and quality of competition to be estimated from goal events while a player is on the ice. While metrics based off of goals over shot attempts are far less accurate and more vulnerable to variance, they are still useful for leagues where shot metrics are unavailable. They allow for some add information, especially for fans who are unable to watch the farm team often.

Here are some numbers generously donated by Josh Weissbock.

Estimated Ice Time

Forwards

Name Number Pos GP ES TOI PP TOI PK TOI TOI
Eric O`Dell 14 C 42 7.33 6.59 3.18 17.10
Jason Jaffray 15 LW 76 7.02 5.97 3.20 16.19
Andrew Gordon 10 RW 76 6.75 5.39 2.72 14.85
Kael Mouillierat 21 LW 60 6.50 6.64 2.63 15.77
Carl Klingberg 48 LW 65 6.47 2.56 1.31 10.33
JC Lipon 34 RW 70 6.15 2.53 2.60 11.29
John Albert 16 C 63 5.70 5.62 6.75 18.07
Kyle MacKinnon 19 C 71 5.49 1.72 4.62 11.82
Jerome Samson 17 RW 68 5.43 6.51 1.79 13.73
Adam Lowry 47 C 64 5.29 2.25 3.80 11.33
Josh Lunden 42 LW 23 4.90 3.37 1.06 9.33
Blair Riley 25 RW 71 4.33 0.62 1.20 6.15
Patrice Cormier 28 C 61 4.20 2.54 3.38 10.13
Austen Brassard 50 RW 29 2.83 0.00 0.42 3.25
Ryan Schnell 38 LW 39 1.05 0.85 0.31 2.22

TOI numbers estimated from on-ice goal data tends to under estimate for low TOI players and over estimate for large TOI players. Best is to look at trends than the individual numbers.

* AHL veterans Jaffray, Gordon, Mouillierat, Albert and Samson played major roles eating a large majority of the minutes. Three of these players will not be returning so it will be interesting to see if Kevin Cheveldayoff and Craig Heisinger replace them with new AHL veterans or start a youth movement.

* O`Dell, Albert, and MacKinnon received significant ice time centring in the top six as the IceCaps wanted to continue sheltering Lowry on the third line. O`Dell and Albert were usually the two top 6 pivots; however, MacKinnon was usually the choice to go into the top 6 when the other two were called up to the main squad.

* For Jets property, Lipon was given a lot off responsibility despite being a rookie. His superior skating to Lowry allowed for a quicker and smother transition into pro.

* With all 3 of Albert, O`Dell and MacKinnon returning -and only O`Dell with a large shot in making the main team- it will be interesting to see whether Lowry will pass any of these players for TOI. This may be an area of conflict between Heisinger and Cheveldayoff.

Defensemen

Name Number Pos GP ES TOI PP TOI PK TOI TOI
Zach Redmond 24 D 40 9.74 5.81 3.34 18.90
Brenden Kichton 8 D 76 9.04 5.68 2.24 16.96
Ben Chiarot 18 D 65 8.20 2.38 4.11 14.70
Julian Melchiori 44 D 50 7.38 1.77 5.83 14.99
Will O`Neill 27 D 68 7.09 5.70 2.32 15.11
Jordan Hill 29 D 68 5.58 0.98 5.54 12.09
Kris Fredheim 7 D 48 5.56 2.31 4.55 12.42
Cody Lampl 32 D 38 3.51 0.58 2.56 6.65

TOI numbers estimated from on-ice goal data tends to under estimate for low TOI players and over estimate for large TOI players. Best is to look at trends than the individual numbers.

* While the forward core was predominately carried by a veteran lineup, the IceCaps defense was carried by many of the Jets (then) prospects. (Best wishes to Zach Redmond)

* Kichton, Chiarot, and Melchiori played some heavy minutes and were used pretty much in all situations.

Estimated Usage

Forwards

Name QoC "Toughness" Rank QoT "Toughness" Rank Average
Austen Brassard 49.20 3 54.40 2 2.5
John Albert 49.91 2 57.12 4 3.0
Ryan Schnell 48.91 5 53.27 1 3.0
Kael Mouillierat 50.16 1 57.52 8 4.5
Patrice Cormier 48.54 7 57.14 5 6.0
Adam Lowry 48.32 8 57.20 6 7.0
Andrew Gordon 48.19 9 57.45 7 8.0
Eric O`Dell 48.94 4 58.92 14 9.0
Josh Lunden 45.30 15 56.36 3 9.0
Kyle MacKinnon 48.61 6 58.10 13 9.5
Jason Jaffray 47.60 11 57.54 9 10.0
Blair Riley 47.72 10 57.93 11 10.5
JC Lipon 47.56 12 57.88 10 11.0
Jerome Samson 47.51 13 58.05 12 12.5
Carl Klingberg 46.71 14 59.08 15 14.5

* Some issues with the data can be seen with players who had a strong tendency to play with each other having very different values: for example, Jaffray and Gordon were hardly ever separated. I'm not certain how much information we can gain from individuals in that case.

* I did take averages of each line for the IceCaps most common lineup when all regulars were healthy, and the results more along the line of expectations. From highest to lowest QoC the lines went: Mouillierat-O`Dell-Klingberg; (almost tied for 1st) Jaffray-Albert-Gordon; Samson-Lowry-Lipon; Cormier-MacKinnon-Riley

Name QoC "Toughness" Rank QoT "Toughness" Rank Average
Cody Lampl 51.79 1 54.9 1 1.0
Jordan Hill 48.19 6 56.0 2 4.0
Brenden Kichton 47.33 7 57.4 3 5.0
Kris Fredheim 50.13 2 57.6 4 3.0
Julian Melchiori 48.49 5 57.7 5 5.0
Will O`Neill 48.58 4 58.0 6 5.0
Ben Chiarot 49.24 3 58.8 7 5.0
Zach Redmond 46.28 8 59.6 8 8.0

* The IceCaps defensive core suffered through quite a few injuries and also they dressed 7 defensemen quite regularly, making these numbers a bit of a dog's breakfast. I do however find the QoC a bit upside down from what I had expected.

Goal Differential and Relative Goal Differential

Forwards



On-ice Off-ice
Name GP GF GA GF% GF GA GF% ΔGF%
Eric O`Dell 42 30 16 65.2% 56 42 57.1% 8.07%
Carl Klingberg 65 41 25 62.1% 101 80 55.8% 6.32%
Blair Riley 71 30 17 63.8% 126 93 57.5% 6.30%
Kyle MacKinnon 71 38 25 60.3% 117 84 58.2% 2.11%
Jason Jaffray 76 52 36 59.1% 112 84 57.1% 1.95%
Kael Mouillierat 60 38 30 55.9% 82 67 55.0% 0.85%
JC Lipon 72 44 32 57.9% 114 82 58.2% -0.27%
Jerome Samson 68 36 25 59.0% 117 80 59.4% -0.37%
Andrew Gordon 76 50 39 56.2% 114 81 58.5% -2.28%
John Albert 63 35 30 53.8% 98 75 56.6% -2.80%
Adam Lowry 64 33 28 54.1% 103 75 57.9% -3.77%
Patrice Cormier 61 25 21 54.3% 104 72 59.1% -4.74%
Josh Lunden 23 11 9 55.0% 49 31 61.3% -6.25%
Austen Brassard 29 8 8 50.0% 57 39 59.4% -9.38%
Ryan Schnell 39 4 8 33.3% 69 51 57.5% -24.17%

Remember, these numbers are just ES goal differentials, so basically a slightly better (or really, a slightly less terrible) plus/minus.

* You'll notice a lot of players with some pretty high numbers. This is because the IceCaps played with strong goaltending. Michael Hutchinson, Eddie Pasquale, and Tyler Beskorowany all had very high regular season save percentages.

* There's not much to make of these numbers due to the sample size, although it is interesting how they all fell into place.

* Ryan Schnell (a personal favourite of Arby's) is the most intriguing for results, especially given that he only saw 12 even strength goal events while he was on the ice despite playing over 39 games.

Defense



On-ice Off-ice
Name GP GF GA Gf% GF GA Gf% ΔGF%
Ben Chiarot 65 52 30 63.4% 81 68 54.4% 9.05%
Zach Redmond 40 38 19 66.7% 53 37 58.9% 7.78%
Julian Melchiori 50 36 24 60.0% 75 61 55.1% 4.85%
Will O`Neill 68 47 32 59.5% 102 78 56.7% 2.83%
Kris Fredheim 48 26 19 57.8% 72 55 56.7% 1.08%
Brenden Kichton 76 67 51 56.8% 97 69 58.4% -1.65%
Jordan Hill 68 37 38 49.3% 108 68 61.4% -12.03%
Cody Lampl 38 13 16 44.8% 70 52 57.4% -12.55%

Remember, these numbers are just ES goal differentials, so basically a slightly better (or really, a slightly less terrible) plus/minus.

* I've noted before that there is a lot of evidence out there that leads me to believe the Jets' managerial opinions are influenced by direct results and on-ice percentages. Ben Chiarot was a player who was nearly an afterthought last summer and this year Heisinger talked about how Chiarot may make noise at camp. Ben Chiarot's ES shot production is very similar to previous seasons, as is his point production if you normalize his sh% between the two seasons. What seems to have changed (dramatically) is his plus/minus...

* Although, counter to my previous hypothesis, the IceCaps extended Jordan Hill into next season.

Production

Forwards

Name G/GP A/GP P/GP SOG/GP Sh%
Jerome Samson 0.40 0.43 0.82 3.15 12.6%
Eric O'Dell 0.40 0.60 1.00 2.95 13.7%
Carl Klingberg 0.34 0.31 0.65 2.74 12.4%
Kael Mouillierat 0.33 0.55 0.88 2.58 12.9%
Andrew Gordon 0.30 0.45 0.75 2.41 12.6%
John Albert 0.44 0.27 0.71 2.30 19.3%
Jason Jaffray 0.24 0.54 0.78 1.96 12.1%
Josh Lunden 0.26 0.17 0.43 1.87 14.0%
Patrice Cormier 0.15 0.28 0.43 1.74 8.5%
Adam Lowry 0.27 0.25 0.52 1.69 15.7%
J.C. Lipon 0.13 0.44 0.57 1.56 8.0%
Kyle MacKinnon 0.17 0.38 0.55 1.49 11.3%
Blair Riley 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.96 10.3%
Austen Brassard 0.10 0.07 0.17 0.83 12.5%
Ryan Schnell 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.69 3.7%

* Samson, O`Dell, Klingberg, Mouillierat and Gordon all produced the majority of the IceCaps shot volume. Three will not be returning next season while the other two may or may not, depending on fall camp.

* Lipon and MacKinnon have always been more passing type forwards, so their low shot production is understandable, but Cormier, Lowry  and Brassard are known shooters and will need to increase their volume.

Defense

Name G/GP A/GP P/GP SOG/GP Sh%
Zach Redmond 0.15 0.48 0.63 3.05 4.9%
Will O'Neill 0.13 0.38 0.51 1.57 8.4%
Brenden Kichton 0.13 0.50 0.63 1.49 8.8%
Ben Chiarot 0.09 0.22 0.31 1.43 6.5%
Jordan Hill 0.00 0.18 0.18 1.12 0.0%
Julian Melchiori 0.02 0.20 0.22 1.08 1.9%
Kris Fredheim 0.02 0.08 0.10 1.06 2.0%

* Redmond's shot volume is extremely impressive, especially given that he is not known as an "offense only" type defender.

* Ben Chirot's shot production took a leap over last season with the added power play time.

* Melchiori's shot volume has interesting followed nearly the exact same development curve as Chiarot, although Melchiori's shot production is slightly greater at the same point in development.

Finale

I left most of the observations and analysis to a minimum. Let's here your thoughts and observations in the comments section.

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