Pilots Logbook 2013-14: Mark Scheifele

Marianne Helm

The Winnipeg Jets 2013-14 season has been laid to rest. This series will take an in-depth look how the team and its players have performed, and some decisions that could push the Jets forward in the future.

Everybody love Mark Scheifele. He is infectiously happy and he loves hockey. Mark's rookie season was a bit of a roller coaster. Early struggles led to a mid season bloom, followed by a disappointing injury to end the year.

The Basics

GP G A P TOI/60 S/60 Sh% PenD
63 13 21 34 16 5.8 13 13

Numbers are for all minutes.

Scheifele's total production was solid, though not spectacular. The fact that most of his production came in the later half of his season says great things about his potential. Scheifele's play earned him top six minutes. Still, his shot production was solid, but his shooting percentage ended up a little high. Is 13% sustainable? Perhaps, but it would be on the high end. Where Schiefele really shines is in his penalty differential. Scheifele created 13 more powerplays than penalty kills. That speaks to smart play and creates a large advantage for his team - approximately an extra two goals over the course of the season. Every little bit helps.

Usage

Screen_shot_2014-06-04_at_4.09.02_am_medium

Player usage chart from extraskater.com.

EV Percentage of Team's Available TOI 5 on 5
ZS% ZS%rel EVTOI% PPTOI% SHTOI% QoC TOI% QoT TOI%
52.9 3.0 28.7 36.6 0.7 28.4 29.8
8th 6th 10th 5th 11th 7th 7th

Rankings are given for team out of 15 forwards to play 20 or more games.

Mark Scheifele jumped right into a top six role as a rookie and he wasn't really sheltered. His numbers place mid pack in almost all categories. Scheifele wasn't used on the penalty kill, but he more than earned his powerplay time. It will be interesting to see both what kind of matchups Paul Maurice gives him next year and what kind of attention he garners from the opposition.

Underlying Numbers

Scheifcorsi_medium

The y-axis is given to show the typical 40-60 sustainable spread seen for NHL calibre players. Players are compared to particular line/pair depending on 5v5 TOI per game. Population mean (average), median (50th percentile), and other percentiles are relative to player performance between 2007-12.

5v5 TOI Corsi% relCorsi% dCF/20 dCA/20 dCorsi%
13.86 48.6% -1.3% -0.400 +1.320 -2.270%

RelCorsi is theteam's percentage of shot attempts with player on ice minus shot attempts with player off ice. Delta Corsi values are team's shot attempt rates with player on ice, but relative to league norm given similar usage (quality of teammates, quality opponents, zone starts, and TOI). dCF/20 is shot attempts for -where a positive number is above average-, dCA/20 is shot attempts against -where a negative number is above average-, and dCorsi% is percentage of shot attempts.

These numbers aren't pretty, but it is worth noting that they improved substantially post-Halischuk (they were really bad with Halischuk). By the numbers Scheif gave up a few too many shots defensively - the likely had to do with opposing coaches sadling him with their heavies, and the shot creation was a little low too. A full year of top six minutes will give us a much better sample.

Conclusion

Mark Scheifele was learning on the job and his coaches weren't sheltering him. Very few players can carry possession against top flight players as a rookie, the fact that Scheifele couldn't is no surprise - especially considering he was asked to carry one of the biggest possession drags in the NHL. Possession aside, Scheif showed plenty of positive signs and started to prove his merit as a scorer.

Keep or lose?

Keep him. Hold him. Squeeze him tight.

Bonus: Simple WOWY's

Schiefele with player Scheif without player
Player TOI CF20 CA20 CF% TOI CF20 CA20 CF%
Mark Scheifele 861:20:00 18.25 19.55 48.3 0:00 0 0 0
Michael Frolik 466:46:00 19.37 18.94 50.6 394:34:00 16.93 20.28 45.5
Evander Kane 345:53:00 19.95 19.2 51 515:27:00 17.11 19.79 46.4
Tobias Enstrom 290:21:00 18.39 18.74 49.5 570:59:00 18.18 19.97 47.7
Blake Wheeler 269:31:00 16.47 19.81 45.4 591:49:00 19.06 19.43 49.5
Zach Bogosian 266:35:00 18.23 19.73 48 594:45:00 18.26 19.47 48.4
Jacob Trouba 232:50:00 18.47 20.1 47.9 628:30:00 18.17 19.35 48.4
Mark Stuart 229:31:00 19.08 23.09 45.2 631:49:00 17.95 18.26 49.6
Dustin Byfuglien 217:23:00 19.96 20.61 49.2 643:57:00 17.67 19.19 47.9
Matt Halischuk 212:01:00 14.9 21.04 41.5 649:19:00 19.34 19.07 50.4
Keaton Ellerby 164:58:00 16.37 19.03 46.2 696:22:00 18.7 19.67 48.7
Adam Pardy 157:21:00 16.14 15.13 51.6 703:59:00 18.72 20.54 47.7
Grant Clitsome 136:09:00 18.07 19.68 47.9 725:11:00 18.29 19.53 48.4
Chris Thorburn 116:22:00 16.16 16.84 49 744:58:00 18.58 19.97 48.2
Devin Setoguchi 100:43:00 18.67 23.63 44.1 760:37:00 18.2 19.01 48.9
Andrew Ladd 73:27:00 21.78 24.78 46.8 787:53:00 17.92 19.06 48.5
Eric Tangradi 39:52:00 20.57 15.55 56.9 821:28:00 18.14 19.75 47.9
Paul Postma 31:54:00 20.69 14.42 58.9 829:26:00 18.16 19.75 47.9
Jame Wright 28:54:00 13.84 18.69 42.6 832:26:00 18.4 19.58 48.5
Anthony Peluson 19:45 24.3 14.18 63.2 841:35:00 18.11 19.68 47.9
Eric O`Dell 17:01 19.98 7.05 73.9 844:19:00 18.22 19.8 47.9
Zach Redmond 7:58 5.02 15.06 25 853:22:00 18.37 19.59 48.4
Olli Jokinen 6:27 12.4 31.01 28.6 854:53:00 18.29 19.46 48.5
Julian Melchiori 4:15 0 4.71 0 857:05:00 18.34 19.62 48.3
Bryan Little 3:26 11.65 11.65 50 857:54:00 18.28 19.58 48.3
Ben Chiarot 3:23 29.56 35.47 45.5 857:57:00 18.21 19.49 48.3
Jim Slater 1:00 20 0 100 860:20:00 18.25 19.57 48.2
Patrice Cormier 0:53 45.28 22.64 66.7 860:27:00 18.22 19.55 48.2
John Albert 0:41 58.54 29.27 66.7 860:39:00 18.22 19.54 48.2

Notes:

There are a lot of sub 50% numbers on this table, but Scheifele was in the plus with Kaner, and Frolik.

He was also in the the positive in all of his minutes apart from Matt Halischuk.

Nothing against Hali, I appreciate how he plays the game, but the numbers are consistently horrible.

All numbers are from Extra Skater, Behind the Net and Hockey Analysis

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