Someone asked me if the Winnipeg Jets had been facing mostly tougher teams and if that is one of the causes of their poor start this season. The obvious answer is yes, it is a factor, but how much....
The Jets have moved to the West which seems to be a far stronger conference this season, with currently only four teams below 50% Corsi% when the score is close.
But, how tough is tough? How have the Jets done in these situations? How have the Jets done in the easier situations?
Well let's see what the numbers and results say:
|Game||Team||Win/Lose||Type||Goal +/-||Team Strength||Team Placement||Game CF||Game CA|
|Versus||Win||Reg L||OTL||SOL||Win%||Goal +/-||Goal +/- /GP||PTS||PTS/GP||Corsi%|
All data was taken from extraskater.com Wednesday, November 6th evening and is subject to change as games go on.
All Corsi data (%, for and against) is in score close situations
The Jets have indeed played more games against "stronger" teams. Eleven games have been against teams with a Corsi% in score close situations greater than 50% (the best predictor of future wins and evaluator of team strength). On average, Jets have faced a 52.2% Corsi% team which would average around the 11th place team for the same metric.
The Jets have done much better against the weaker teams, with a 2-2-1-1 record (or 2-2-2 if you use NHL's standards of combining OTL and SOL as the same). They have averaged a point every game against these teams and have only 3 loses in regulation or overtime. The Jets have also been near equal as far as puck possession and scoring chances in these games.
Interestingly enough, the numbers do not go along with the narrative that the Jets' tend to do better against the best teams. They have won a slightly greater percentage of games against above 50% Corsi% teams; however, half of those wins were in shootouts, which could go either way really. In spite of winning a similar amount of games, the Jets have only amassed an average of three points every four games from those teams. The Jets also have been decently out chanced and possessed by the stronger clubs (not much surprise there), meaning the 0.73 point per game accumulation is more likely to lessen than increase or stay stagnant.
There may be some hope that this means in the future the Jets record and Corsi% will improve throughout the season as the Jets face weaker teams. Problem with this is most of the stronger teams seem to be in the West this season and therefore it is unlikely to dramatically change... unless something changes within the Jets (quality of play, players, coach, team, goaltending, whatever).
Let us know your thoughts below
More from Arctic Ice Hockey:
- The Long Reach of the Great Game
- Sometimes, you just have to make a bold change, or two.
- Champs Beat Chumps: Jets fall 4-1 in Chicago
- Fat Man and Little Boy: A Look at the Defensive Pairings
- October in Review