Balanced Zone Shift (BZS) Single Season Leaders, 2007-08 to 2010-11

DENVER, CO - APRIL 20 : Joe Pavelski #8 of the San Jose Sharks gets a high five from teammate Manny Malhotra #27 after Pavelski scored the game winner in overtime of Game Four of the Western Conference Quarterfinals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Pepsi Center on April 20, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. The San Jose Sharks won the game 2-1 in overtime. (Photo by Marc Piscotty/Getty Images)

Having talked a bit about Balanced Zone Shift as subtracting Expected Zone Shift from a player's actual Zone Shift and the best BZS's from the previous four years, the request came for a look at leaders within each of the individual seasons.  The idea is to see how repeatable good (and, for that matter, bad) BZS performance is, and should it be repeatable which players are repeating it.  This got me to thinking about the idea of performance being repeatable in general, and there's just a couple of things I want to say.

For one, if a performance is repeated we get an idea of a player's talent.  As you can see below, there are a few players that are repeated in either the best BZS or the worst BZS (repeated bad performances can tell us something, too).  But if the performances are drastically different from one year to the next, one or more of the performances have to be called into question and you need to look for reasons to explain it.  It might be so simple as the player just isn't as good or bad as one of the performances (which you would find by identifying elements of the performance that are "lucky" or evidence of recording bias), or they were used differently by their coaches (includes who they were teamed with and who they were played against).   Secondly, and something I've been thinking about quite a bit: there's a lot to be said for someone that repeats performance, good or bad.  A consistent player is easier for coaches to deploy effectively, and can be matched up with other players to cover or exploit particular parts of their game.  It's also easier to decide whether they should be demoted.  In other words, a consistent player, regardless of whether they are great, average, or pretty bad, makes for easy management and deployment decisions (unless you give them a ridiculous contract, that is).

Just a quick note to tack-on to this: in case anyone is wondering, BZS has zero correlation to Zone Start%.

2007-08 BZS Leaders, 50+ Games Played (n = 525, mean = -0.248)

Top 20 --------------------------------------------------------------- Bottom 20

Player --------------------------- BZS ----------------------------- Player ------------------------- BZS

Antti Miettinen ----------------- 6.498 --------------------------- Aaron Downey -------------- -12.094

Wojtek Wolski ----------------- 5.800 --------------------------- Bryan Berard ----------------- -7.480

Brandon Dubinsky ----------- 5.718 --------------------------- Eric Godard ------------------- -6.833

Jim Dowd ----------------------- 5.558 -------------------------- Brad Isbister ------------------ -6.697

Jerred Smithson -------------- 5.280 -------------------------- Craig MacDonald ------------ -6.616

Tomas Holmstrom ----------- 5.275 -------------------------- Craig Adams ----------------- -6.083

Brenden Morrow -------------- 5.180 --------------------------- Stu Barnes ------------------- -5.969

Bryan Smolinski -------------- 5.098 --------------------------- Andreas Karlsson ---------- -5.769

Matt Cooke --------------------- 5.072 --------------------------- Steve McCarthy -------------- -5.611

Milan Michalek ----------------- 4.942 -------------------------- Yanic Perreault -------------- -5.548

Paul Martin ---------------------- 4.898 -------------------------- Jeremy Reich ---------------- -5.426

Pavel Datsyuk ------------------ 4.815 -------------------------- Jamal Mayers ---------------- -5.309

Francis Bouillon --------------- 4.724 -------------------------- Kurtis Foster ------------------ -5.261

Kurt Sauer ----------------------- 4.556 -------------------------- Jody Shelley ------------------ -5.198

Martin Straka -------------------- 4.489 -------------------------- D.J. King ----------------------- -5.165

Jarkko Ruutu -------------------- 4.488 ------------------------- Trevor Linden ----------------- -5.078

Denis Grebeshkov ------------ 4.449 -------------------------- Maxim Afinogenov ----------- -5.035

Nicklas Lidstrom -------------- 4.293 -------------------------- Nick Tarnasky ----------------- -5.013

Scott Gomez -------------------- 4.183 -------------------------- Aaron Voros ------------------- -5.002

Jonathan Cheechoo ---------- 4.146 ------------------------- Mike Sillinger ------------------ -4.882

2008-09 BZS Leaders, 50+ Games Played (n = 518, mean = -0.2)

Top 20 --------------------------------------------------------------- Bottom 20

Player --------------------------- BZS ----------------------------- Player ------------------------- BZS

Nick Schultz ------------------- 6.862 --------------------------- Kris Russell ----------------- -10.779

Mark Giordano ---------------- 6.777 --------------------------- Derek Armstrong ------------ -8.536

Blair Betts ---------------------- 6.618 --------------------------- Derek Boogaard ------------- -8.369

Lubomir Visnovsky ---------- 6.265 --------------------------- Raitis Ivanans ---------------- -7.266

Kurt Sauer --------------------- 6.029 ---------------------------- Marc-Andre Bergeron ------ -7.208

Milan Michalek ---------------- 5.990 --------------------------- Mason Raymond ------------ -7.186

Douglas Murray -------------- 5.976 ---------------------------- Fabian Brunnstrom --------- -7.059

Dean McAmmond ----------- 5.425 ---------------------------- Eric Godard ------------------- -6.532

Ryane Clowe ----------------- 5.032 ---------------------------- Brad Richards ---------------- -6.067

Alexander Semin ------------- 4.840 --------------------------- Kyle Turris --------------------- -5.295

Jay McKee ---------------------- 4.635 --------------------------- Brandon Sutter --------------- -5.011

Patrick Marleau --------------- 4.566 ---------------------------- Erik Christensen ------------ -4.933

Shawn Horcoff ---------------- 4.528 ---------------------------- Marek Svatos ----------------- -4.692

Joe Pavelski ------------------- 4.361 ---------------------------- Christian Backman --------- -4.673

Andrew Ladd ------------------ 4.278 ---------------------------- Thomas Pock ----------------- -4.665

Marc Staal ---------------------- 4.152 ---------------------------- Jordan Leopold -------------- -4.593

Marian Hossa ----------------- 4.019 ---------------------------- Cody McCormick ------------ -4.584

Niklas Kronwall --------------- 3.999 ---------------------------- Brian Sutherby --------------- -4.403

Dan Boyle ----------------------- 3.917 ---------------------------- Boris Valabik ---------------- -4.399

Joe Thornton ------------------- 3.908 ---------------------------- Tyler Arnason ---------------- -4.362

2009-10 BZS Leaders, 50+ Games Played (n = 527, mean = -0.0)

Top 20 --------------------------------------------------------------- Bottom 20

Player --------------------------- BZS ----------------------------- Player ------------------------- BZS

Robert Lang ------------------- 6.167 --------------------------- Raitis Ivanans -------------- -7.213

Adam Pardy ------------------- 5.884 --------------------------- George Parros -------------- -6.762

Marcel Goc -------------------- 5.588 ---------------------------- Mike Brown ------------------ -6.203

Colin Fraser ------------------- 5.359 --------------------------- Mike Rupp ------------------- -6.056

Chris Kunitz ------------------- 5.177 ---------------------------- Derick Brassard ----------- -5.673

Mike Weaver ------------------ 5.005 ---------------------------- Jared Boll -------------------- -5.585

Alexander Ovechkin --------- 5.002 --------------------------- Ethan Moreau --------------- -5.551

Marian Hossa ---------------- 4.775 ---------------------------- Marc-Andre Bergeron ----- -5.473

Sidney Crosby ---------------- 4.771 --------------------------- Dominic Moore -------------- -5.378

Daniel Sedin ------------------ 4.366 --------------------------- James Sheppard ----------- -5.098

Johnny Boychuk -------------- 3.947 --------------------------- Jerred Smithson ------------ -4.949

Alexander Steen -------------- 3.752 --------------------------- Patrick Eaves ---------------- -4.856

Nick Foligno ------------------- 3.751 --------------------------- Ryan O'Byrne ---------------- -4.842

Matt Cooke --------------------- 3.696 --------------------------- Shane Hnidy ----------------- -4.767

Patrick Marleau --------------- 3.610 --------------------------- Kyle Chipchura -------------- -4.662

Byron Bitz ----------------------- 3.605 --------------------------- Lukas Krajicek -------------- -4.651

Olli Jokinen -------------------- 3.564 --------------------------- Richard Park ----------------- -4.634

Patrik Elias -------------------- 3.548 ---------------------------- Daniel Briere ---------------- -4.548

Tanner Glass ----------------- 3.507 ---------------------------- David Legwand ------------ -4.492

Zach Parise ------------------- 3.493 ---------------------------- Derek Boogaard ------------ -4.314

2010-11 BZS Leaders, 30+ Games Played (n = 518, mean = -0.1)

Top 20 --------------------------------------------------------------- Bottom 20

Player --------------------------- BZS ----------------------------- Player ------------------------- BZS

Jay Harrison ------------------- 6.794 --------------------------- Jason Blake ---------------- -7.508

Scott Nichol -------------------- 6.196 --------------------------- Colton Orr ------------------- -7.435

Manny Malhotra --------------- 6.006 --------------------------- John Scott ------------------- -7.182

Claude Giroux ----------------- 5.844 --------------------------- Zack Stortini ---------------- -7.029

Nick Spaling ------------------- 5.568 --------------------------- Matt Hendricks ------------- -6.811

Adam Foote -------------------- 5.519 --------------------------- Matt Martin ------------------- -6.495

Sidney Crosby ----------------- 5.213 --------------------------- Andreas Lilja --------------- -6.438

Jeff Carter ----------------------- 5.044 --------------------------- Brian Sutherby ------------- -5.921

Paul Stastny -------------------- 5.028 --------------------------- Jody Shelley ---------------- -5.773

David Krejci --------------------- 4.999 --------------------------- Fredrik Modin -------------- -5.568

Ryan Shannon ----------------- 4.517 --------------------------- Trevor Lewis --------------- -5.554

Ryane Clowe ------------------- 4.289 --------------------------- Arron Asham --------------- -5.100

David Backes ------------------ 4.263 --------------------------- Drew Miller ------------------ -5.068

Chris Conner ------------------- 4.209 -------------------------- David Moss ------------------ -5.031

Patrik Berglund ---------------- 4.185 --------------------------- Kyle Wilson ----------------- -5.029

James Van Riemsdyk -------- 4.079 -------------------------- Davis Drewiske ------------ -5.019

Nathan Horton ------------------ 4.021 -------------------------- Maxime Talbot -------------- -4.987

Ales Hemsky -------------------- 3.997 -------------------------- Phil Kessel ------------------ -4.912

Joe Pavelski --------------------- 3.905 -------------------------- Vincent Lecavalier --------- -4.899

Cody McCormick --------------- 3.889 -------------------------- Colin Fraser ----------------- -4.693

Notice how at least 3 players (Jerred Smithson, Cody McCormick, Colin Fraser) show up on the good and bad side of these lists.  It would be wrong to assume that any of those players are truly as bad as they were one season just as it would be wrong to assume they were as good as they played in another.

That's enough for now.  Next time I'll be looking at 3- and 4-year averages, and a bit after that I'll see whether or not BZS is affected by age.

In This Article

Topics
Players
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker