Luck vs Shot Quality in Shooting Percentage

We're back to talking about "shot quality" (which I liked to call shot location) yet again (it's definitely my least favorite "statistical" topic...) We looked at Defense-Independent Goalie Rating last week and re-visited it yesterday in our discussion of shot distance against. A couple of open points came up yesterday that required a little more inquiry - first, here's the regression to the mean and R^2 of various quantities, looking at odd and even shots (road EV data only):

M R^2
Shot Distance 0.7481 0.5149
Shot Location 0.6717 0.453
Shooting % 0.228 0.0478

There's an interesting contradiction here: even though shot distance and shot location/quality are persistent, shooting percentage is very luck-driven. That means these results are in no way surprising:

4sd
Shot Distance 1.00
Shot Location 1.36
"Luck" 2.84
Observed Shooting % 3.08

Don't forget what luck is: I flip a coin a huge number of times to model a league where every shot is equally likely to go in (at the league average shooting percentage.) I then look at the standard deviation of shooting percentage over the course of 1340-shot samples (1340 is the average number of road even-strength shots per team over the last six seasons.) The observed range of team shooting percentage against is barely larger than what we see in our pure luck league - luck is 85% of the observed range.

Bottom line: shot distance/location/quality is just a tiny sliver of shooting percentage (both for and against.) When you factor in the 33% regression to the mean we see in odd and even samples, shot quality accounts for just under 10% of team shooting percentage.

In This Article

Teams
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker