Minnesota Wild sign Mikko Koivu to a huge contract
by Hawerchuk on Jul 16, 2010 2:37 AM EDT
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PrintMikko Koivu just signed a 7-year, $47.25M contract with Minnesota, starting in 2011-12. Koivu made $3.3M this year, which made him about as big a bargain as you can get for an RFA in the NHL. So is Koivu worth almost $7M per year, which makes him one of the 20-highest-paid players in the NHL?
If anyone is, Koivu is. He literally does everything: he takes on tough competition, he wins faceoffs at a very high rate, he scores and he logs a huge amount of PP and PK time. Even though Minnesota seemingly followed a strategy of conceding shots (but limiting the quality of each chance), they've consistently outshot their opponents when Koivu is on the ice. The only potential downside for Koivu is injuries, but he's been very durable over the last two seasons.
It's likely that Koivu will actually even outperform his contract over the next few years - if you're going to drop $50M on a player, it had better be one this good.
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How do you think Mikko Koivu at this price compares to, say, Ryan Kesler at $5 mil per year?
Koivu’s great, and for a player of his ability I think he’s a bit overlooked. Also, his injury where he missed significant games in 07-08 was the result of a a ridiculous two-handed slash to his leg (which you can see on youtube here), so I don’t think that says anything negative about his potential durability.
Kesler was an RFA; Koivu was a UFA. Big difference. Kesler’s contract indicates VAN thinks he’s even better than Koivu, which may be true.
That’s a bit rich Gabe. Kesler’s contract is for one RFA year and five UFA years. Maybe you need to pump the tires a bit, but I don’t think that the valuation on one RFA year makes up for all of the extra $$$ Koivu is getting.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 16, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
As for injuries…Koivu spends a lot of time at the surgeon. He was injured during his rookie season and again last year. Compare to say Brad Richards, who missed two games through age 27. And of course Richards hasn’t been healthy.
For a Koivu, Mikko has had it easy on the injury front.
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Wow these were exactly my thoughts. If Koivu can keep doing what he does and score around 70, this is a very very good contract
He can do more than 70 with true 1st-liners at his side
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It’s nice to finally see someone other than a Wild fan understand this contract. Mikko Koivu is everything and more to the Wild. He IS the Wild
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No offence, but if he is the wild, and the wild have been a consistently mediocre team in the team he’s been there… and again no offence… what does that say about him?
by Beantown Canuck on Jul 16, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not aware of any one player in today’s NHL who’s able to change his team’s trajectory in the long run. Yea, goalies can get hot for short spurts, but that’s probably about it.
I mean no offence, but Luongo is with the Canucks, and the Canucks have been a consistently mediocre team in the playoffs in the time he’s been there…what does that say about him?
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Well, I’m not arguing that Luongo IS the Canucks, but fair enough. Note also that Luongo signed a longterm UFA contract with a $5 mill and change cap hat. And the Sedins signed longterm UFA cap hits of $6.1 mill each. Just sayin’.
And I don’t know if they’ve been consistently mediocre… they’ve never lost in the first round with Luongo, and 2 out of 3 playoff seasons they lost to the Stanley Cup Champs. Sigh. I guess that’s still mediocre. A bit of fanboy revisionism on my part :)
by Beantown Canuck on Jul 16, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea, but he is their goalie and their captain. And we’re all guilty of a little revisionism…right?
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When the ‘nucks just overpaid by about as much per year for Hamhuis; I don’t see much of a problem with this signing. Especially for their Captain. I expect the Preds to lay out a big deal to keep Weber in Nashville for the better part of a decade as well. Will they overpay a bit? Maybe. But overpaying one of your BEST players is better than overpaying for someone who’s middling or limited. Ask Ranger fans later about Boogaard…;)
Ummm...
I think it says he’s helped make his team a consistent playoff contender.
How does a team be a “consistently mediocre team in the playoffs”. First off, to make it to the dance, you need to be in the top 16 teams in the league. Which, fair enough, might be “mediocre” if you consistently finish 16th-14th. But they haven’t. They won the NW title 3 times, placing them in the top 6 seed every time they made the dance.
Also, the canucks have gone to the second round 3 times in luongo’s tenure, twice losing to the eventual stanley cup champions.
Now, I’m not saying that the canucks have been in the Red Wings’ territory (2 finals, 1 conference, 1 2nd round), but “mediocre playoff team” is an oxymoronic phrase. If you consistently make the dance and aren’t swept in the first round, you aren’t mediocre. Making the top 8 teams in the league 3 out of 4 years is not a mediocre result.
As to one player changing his teams trajectory, I’d be curious to see what the pens or caps did without Sid and Alex. Pretty sure the fortunes of those teams reversed with a year of them arriving. Also, Staal in Carolina and Chris Pronger anywhere are decent examples as well.
The Canucks playoff record with Luongo is 17-17. I’m not splitting hairs though about a definition of mediocre. 17-17 looks pretty mediocre.
And the Pens and Caps are much more than just Sid and Alex. Same goes for Philly and Carolina. No one player in today’s NHL can change a team’s trajectory in the long run. If he has help, then it’s a different story.
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How many teams have a) more than 30 playoff games and b) at least a .500 record since the lockout? That should be a pretty decent indicator as to whether or not they’ve been mediocre.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 17, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Regardless of how they match up, the point still stands that it’s meaningless to say “the Wild haven’t been good since Koivu has been there, so what does that say about him?”
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It might say he’s not the kind of player who attracts more talent.
Players want to play with Lidstrom, Sid, Ovie, Lou, Toews, Pronger etc because they believe that they are the kind of talent that will help them win, so they’ll take a discount.
The problem with the Koivu deal is it’s kind of market value for the guy (despite Gabe’s belief he’ll over perform, I don’t think anyone would pay koive more than 7 per right now) so whoever else they sign will not be likely to take a discount to play for a winner and the wild will be caught in a cap trap, unable to build a contender unless they draft well. Had he taken a HTD, the wild would have had an extra million for a depth player or for sealing the deal with a top tier player. Columbus did the same dumb thing with Nash.
This is why Lombardi is being smart by not taking Kovalchuk’s ridiculous bait.
It might say he’s not the kind of player who attracts more talent.
It might, but I doubt it. But it’s pointless because there’s no way to know one way or the other.
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Det:48-33
Pits: 38-24
Ana:34-22
SJ: 28-28
Phi: 27-25
Chi: 25-14
Car: 24-19
Buf: 22-18
Ott: 20-20
Bos: 17-14
Van: 17-17
Mtr: 16-25
Edm: 15-9
NJ: 15-22
Dal:14-16
NYR: 14-13
Was:13-15
Col: 10-15
Cal: 10-12
Nsh: 6-16
Phx: 3-4
Min: 3-8
Tmp: 3-8
LA: 2-4
NYI: 1-4
STL: 0-4
Clb: 0-4
Atl: 0-4
Tor: 0-0
Flr: 0-0
Vancouver is tied with boston for 10th most wins since the lockout and only edmonton has fewer wins but a better winning %, based on the cinderella run. If being 11th in the league is mediocre, I guess that’s mediocre. But there are 18 teams worse than them and only 9-10 better.
Well looking at team’s with 20 or more games played, Vancouver is tied for 11th out of 20 by my count. It’s all POV.
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Tied for 10th, with boston, I think you mean. Or are you talking winning %?
You’re saying they are the middle of the successful pack. So they’re are the mediocre of the elite. Which, as I’ve said, is oxymoronic, regardless of POV.
If you factor in the whole league, they are in the top third. That, to me, is not mediocre. Montreal’s record would be mediocre, where they are successful enough to make the dance, but lose badly in the later rounds.
You also have to consider 2 of the teams who eliminated Vancouver were Stanley Cup winners, which makes their record MORE impressive, in my opinion. When 8 of 17 losses are to the eventual champions, both teams which were, btw, stacked to the nines with talent, it looks less mediocre to me.
I originally said the Canucks have been mediocre in the playoffs. Looking at teams that have played more than 2 rounds in your sample, the Canucks come out in the middle, which in my mind means mediocre.
The Canucks have had some tough opponents though…
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Looking at teams that have played more than 2 rounds in your sample, the Canucks come out in the middle,
Ok, I’m harping a little here, but don’t you see the contradiction in calling that mediocre? Of the teams who have made the final 8, the canucks finish in the middle.
It’s like saying Chris Pronger is a mediocre defenseman because others have gotten ahead of him in Norris nominations.
Montreal has been mediocre in the playoffs. Washington has been mediocre in the playoffs. New Jersey has been mediocre in the playoffs. Barring one year where the blueline was decimated by injuries, the canucks have made the playoffs with Luongo and made it to round two each time.
Which brings us back to the impact player notion. Luongo arrived, Vancouver started succeeding. This isn’t because he’s the next coming of Hasek (though he is good), it’s because he’s a bedrock on which the talent can be laid. The Sedins, Kesler, Burrows, all have taken discount contracts to play for a winner. As did Luo, with his extension.
With the 2-4 million they saved on those contracts, they went from signing Mathieu Schnieder to signing Dan Hamhuis. For less than Martin, Gonchar and Volchenkov, his “competition” on the FA market. Even if it’s just .5m in savings, that’s a journeyman depth player, or a rookie you can add to your roster
This is what detroit has been up to for years with the Dats-Zets contracts and Lidstrom. Koivu is a good player, but is he really a franchise cornerstone? I think not.
With him and backstrom eating up 13.75 of the cap (more than the twins and burrows) and Havlat making what Kesler is making, you get 40 million to sign 20 players. 2 mil per, maybe a little more for inflation. When Kobasew, Brunette and Mietinnen make .33 more than that, I worry about my depth.
If Koivu were making a kesler or richards-esque salary and Backstrom made a luongo or fleury-esque one, you’d have an extra 2-3 mill for a depth player, or an RFA top 6 or top 4 guy to make the team competitive.
Maybe fletcher plans to run this sucker into the ground and build it back up around Koivu, but unless the draft goes very well and you get some colorado quality 18 year olds, I’m skeptical that minnesota is going anywhere past the first round during koivu’s tenure.
It’s kind of confusing how in some places Backstrom = Nicklas (WSH C) and in some places Backstrom = Niklas (MIN G). I think you meant the latter one here, but can we specify please?
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by red army line on Jul 19, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry.
I meant the goalie. My reference point was Minnesota’s cap situation, and I reference Koivu (Mikka, that is ;) ) and him taking up more cap than Vancouver’s top line. I also mention Havlat later in that paragraph.
Also, the Richards mentioned is Mike Richards, not Brad.
What rules were made to "slow Gretzky down"?
The length of the deal is also really good
Assuming the next CBA still keeps the pre-35 retirement rule, Koivu’s next contract will be able to be one of those cap-friendly gentlemen agreements like Marc Savard signed – i.e. an extra 3 or 4 years at no money are tacked on to the contract (before which the player plans on retiring) to bring the cap hit down.
I think Koivu will be 34 in the offseason when this deal runs out, so that will be the last offseason that he could sign one of those deals.
It’s a small thing, but in my mind, it’s another sign that the contract is a good one.
Of course, they could have bought those 4-5 years right now and had a reduced cap hit throughout. That was the other option.
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by Bruce Peter on Jul 16, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
To get that benefit, this would have to be something like a 14 year contract (7 to go through to 34, 3 more years to get the 35, 36, and 37 that he would actually play, and then 4 or so to actually bring down the cap hit).
You also have to essentially get Koivu, at 26, to agree to what year he’s going to retire at, which is probably not that easy.
I’m surprised that you’re so bullish on this deal Gabe. I just don’t think Koivu has enough EV offense to justify being considered one of the twenty best forwards in the league. He had much easier ice time last year at EV and, unsurprisingly, put up a career year offensively. But it still wasn’t that good. He’s been very good on the PP, but if we’re going to give the guy who draws the penalty most of the credit for those goals, then there’s not as much left for the guys scoring them. I find individual PK skill very difficult to measure, but the Wild have been very good and Koivu has been a big part of it, so he should get some credit there as well, though again, what his value is above replacement on the PK is hard to say. I don’t think it’s a terrible deal by any means, just that it’s right around what he’s worth, erring towards a slight overpay. Of course, if he maintains his level and the economy recovers, the contract could look very nice compared to UFA pricing over the last half of the deal.
I wouldn’t say I’m bullish. I think he’s maybe 60% likely to out-perform the contract over the next three years.
I guess I look at the guys who get paid $6M-$8M and I only see a handful of players I’d want more than Koivu at those prices, and those are mostly the serious hometown deals like the Sedins, Zetterberg and Datsyuk.
Well, there aren’t exactly a tonne of forwards in the $6M-$8M range, but I take your point that he’s better than quite a few of them. Most of them are lower on the pay scale though. There are probably eight or so forwards who make more than him that I think he outperforms and closer to twelve that make less that I think are clearly better, although a few of those are on RFA deals.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 16, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Koivu's contract
is on par with Stastny and Kopitar, but I’d take both of them over Koivu… and I love Koivu as a player.
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by Jibblescribbits on Jul 18, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don’t think Koivu has enough EV offense to justify being considered one of the twenty best forwards in the league.
He had 2.09 ES pts/60 this year, 1.57 last year, and 2.14 the year before. Considering that he saw really tough competition last year and the year before, and that he’s had below average teammates at ES and on the PP, I think he’s put up enough to move himself into that conversation. I mean, let’s say you switch him with Nick Backstrom. If Koivu regularly skates with OV and Knuble/Semin on a regular basis against below average competition in the SE division, his numbers probably explode and he’s in the running for the Art Ross and Hart.
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below average competition in the SE division
That’s kind of misleading, I think. Koivu would probably draw the tough matchups just like AO did, like Backstrom did. Backstrom did a helluva job offensively and I don’t think Koivu is in that class. Maybe Koivu would be more akin to a better version of Scott Gomez, able to skate tough minutes and perform well but not put up elite counting offensive stats.
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by red army line on Jul 18, 2010 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually meant below average competition and SE division to be two separate points, and not to imply that the SE division was all below average competition. My bad.
Koivu would probably draw the tough matchups just like AO did, like Backstrom did.
When I look at the Corsi Rel QoC stats for the Capitals to see who’s shouldering the load of facing tough competition, Backstrom and OV are near the bottom. Even looking at Corsi QoC, OV is near the top but Backstrom is mediocre.
I’m not going to write off Koivu’s talent until I see him play 82 games with Ovehckin and Knuble/Semin against the opponents those guys faced this year. We obviously have no way to know for sure, but I’d bet quite a bit that Mikko’s counting numbers jump a lot in that situation.
PS-I actually never knew you had your own blog. Pretty neat stuff RAL
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So then why the completely opposite suggestions by QualComp? Is it that the best relative +/- players on many teams are “3rd liners” so to speak?
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by red army line on Jul 19, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve started to move away from using QCOMP and QTEAM since Gabe said Corsi QoC and QoT work way better. I think this makes intuitive sense since QCOMP and QTEAM are driven by goals for and against, which have a much bigger luck component (and more noise overall) than Corsi.
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First off, 1.57/60 is just plain bad and the other two numbers are good but certainly not elite. And he’s now getting paid to be elite. He brings other skills, but so do a lot of the elite forwards in the NHL. It’s not like Zetterberg and Datsyuk only bring offence. If you put Koivu in the absolute best situation possible could he produce more points? Definitely. But stipulating that he needs to play with one of the two or three best players in the game before we can really know how good he is offensively is goofy. I’m sure Marty St. Louis or Paul Stastny would really rip it up with Ovechkin too. The thing is, they’re ripping it up anyway. Most of the forwards I’d have above Koivu either have an EV pts/60 of 2.20 or better over the last three years (weighting each season equally) and do other things well or they have an EV pts/60 of 2.75 or better (same weighting over three years) but are mostly killing medium comp. Koivu’s three-year average is 1.93 which is good, but it’s not there right now. Koivu’s best offensive season (2.14) would be an off-year for most of these guys.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
First off, 1.57/60 is just plain bad and the other two numbers are good but certainly not elite.
1.57/60 isn’t great, but I think it’s worth noting he had the worst teammates and saw the toughest comp that year. And regarding his numbers this year, his 2.09 pts/60 was ahead of guys like Iginla, Nash, and Jeff Carter. Are those guys elite? I don’t know, but Koivu is ahead of them and he’s paid about the same.
But stipulating that he needs to play with one of the two or three best players in the game before we can really know how good he is offensively is goofy.
All of the top offensive stars in the league, including Z and Dats, have ridiculously better teammates than Koivu. And excluding this year, Koivu has played against much tougher competition than guys like Kovalchuk, Crosby, Sedin or OV. I don’t think it makes sense to knock Mikko for his offense when the guys you bring up play in very different situations.
I’m sure Marty St. Louis or Paul Stastny would really rip it up with Ovechkin too. The thing is, they’re ripping it up anyway.
Matin St. Louis’ pts/60 the last three years have been 2.03, 2.44, and 2.5. I wouldn’t say he’s tearing it up, though I know that’s purely semantics. And St. Louis sees lesser comp and a much better zone start than Koivu could ever dream of. When you factor those into the equation, I personally don’t see a difference. And Stastny was at 1.59 pts/60 last year and 2.42 this year. And in 2008, Koivu was seeing much tougher competition than Stastny and has been much better at faceoffs over the last three years. They’re both getting paid close to the same amount, and they’re both studs. I mean, even going on raw point totals, Z and Dats had 70 each this year, and Koivu had 71. And Minnesota’s pp isn’t in the same league as Detroit’s.
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And regarding his numbers this year, his 2.09 pts/60 was ahead of guys like Iginla, Nash, and Jeff Carter. Are those guys elite? I don’t know, but Koivu is ahead of them and he’s paid about the same.
I actually wouldn’t have any of the three you mentioned as one of the top twenty forwards in the league. Maybe Nash, but he’d be on the bubble along with a guy like Koivu. I think Iginla took a real step back last year, but we’ll see. Carter doesn’t have enough of a track record. I don’t think he belongs in the conversation of really elite guys. Incidentally, the three guys you picked there all had their worst season of the last three years in 2009-10 and all three have at least one better offensive season than Koivu’s best one in the last three years. If we compare those four players by their three-year average, the guy in fourth is Mikko Koivu.
For guys like Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Crosby, and the Sedins, they’re all significantly better offensively and the only ones who didn’t play toughs last year were the Sedins (much like Koivu who didn’t play particularly difficult minutes a year ago either, and like the Sedins, has done it before). Their three-averages for EV pts per 60 are 2.41, 2.60, 3.26, 3.03, and 2.97. Koivu is at 1.93. That’s a lot of ground to make up and I wouldn’t say he’s clearly better at the non-scoring elements of the game than any of those other players. When compared to legitimately elite talent, Koivu comes up short when you look at the bigger samples.
Comparing faceoffs, Koivu is definitely better than a guy like Stastny, but that’s another skill that I think may be overrated based on a career year last season. If the true talent is something like Koivu at 54.5% and Stastny at 49.5% at EV, there’s certainly a gap there, but it’s only about 60 extra FO wins per year (based on 1200 FO’s) and that’s probably not going to be a lot of value. Some, for sure, but not enough to make up the gap in offense (Stastny’s three-year pts/60 average is 2.38 even with the one really awful season).
Overall, I like Koivu okay; I just think he belongs in a discussion of 16th to 40th best forwards and that doesn’t give him a lot of room to outperform his new contract, at least in the first couple of seasons. When the cap rises, his deal could look like a bargain so long as he stays healthy and maintains a high level of play
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2010 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I see your points on the Nash, Iginla group, but I’d put Nash in the top 20 without hesitation. And even though they’ve all had better offensive years than Koivu, they all had much better teammates (except Carter). I’ll stop banging on that drum (because I’m sure you’re sick of hearing it), but that’s a big selling point to me.
I’ll have to disagree about Crosby. From the QoC numbers and watching him play all the time this year, I wouldn’t classify his minutes as tough. He OPCT is really favorable, and the Staal line still takes on a big chunk of the other team’s top players. Don’t get me wrong, he made some serious strides this year, but I think he’s got some room to go before he’s a tough minute forward in my book.
Their three-averages for EV pts per 60 are 2.41, 2.60, 3.26, 3.03, and 2.97. Koivu is at 1.93. That’s a lot of ground to make up and I wouldn’t say he’s clearly better at the non-scoring elements of the game than any of those other players.
When you factor in teammates and competition, that difference gets a lot closer for me.
You’ve got a fair conclusion, I’d just like the season to start already so we can see how these guys perform with their new contracts.
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I actually don’t think that all of the players you mentioned have had consistently better (theoretical) ‘mates than Koivu but I don’t really know who Koivu has played with in Minnesota over the last few years. If he had significant time with Gaborik or Havlat though, that’s clearly better than the guys Nash and Iginla have played with. If he’s been with Bouchard, than that’s pretty comparable. You’d know better than me about Crosby and Malkin, but my understanding is that they don’t play together often at EV which means neither of them are getting great wingers on a regular basis.
As for the “top x” lists, I have probably fourteen guys pegged as elite forwards and then a large group of “well… maybe…” guys after that. In that top group I’ve got Alfredsson, Crosby, Datsyuk, Gaborik, Getzlaf, Hossa, Malkin, Ovechkin, Parise, Sedin, Sedin, Thornton, Toews, and Zetterberg.
After that it’s a large group of guys that includes Stastny, St. Louis, Nash, Koivu, Iginla, Carter and it goes on and on (Heatley, Marleau, Spezza, Hemsky, Kesler, Kopitar, Semin, Backstrom, Kovalchuk, Zajac, Richards, Richards and so on). Some guys here are better than others, but for me, they’re all short of anyone in that top group of fourteen guys.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
but I don’t really know who Koivu has played with in Minnesota over the last few years.
I’m just using Corsi QoT. It passes the smell test with the Penguins, so I think it works pretty well. But looking at line combo data, Koivu played a lot of ES minutes this year with Brunette and Miettinen. The same is true for 2008.
but my understanding is that they don’t play together often at EV which means neither of them are getting great wingers on a regular basis.
This is very true. You have no idea how frustrating it was to get into Hart conversations with people and them say “shut up about teammates, Crosby has Malkin!”
That looks like quality list. I could quibble on the margins, but we’re in agreement on 95% of the players.
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This is very true. You have no idea how frustrating it was to get into Hart conversations with people and them say "shut up about teammates, Crosby has Malkin!"
To be fair, that comment was made in reference to Crosby’s PP points, where he does have Malkin. :p
I actually wasn’t referring to you ND, or anyone in particular. No offense intended…
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he takes on tough competition
Looking at Wild players who played 30 games last year, Koivu’s QCOMP is 7th out of 20 and his Corsi QoC is 11th out of 20. He’s also got the 2nd highest zone start on the Wild, so I don’t think I’d classify him as playing tough competition, unless I’m missing something.
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Not only that, but out of forwards who played at least 30 games and 13 TOI/60; Mikko Koivu’s QUALCOMP ranks 108th out of 138. His Corsi QoC with those same filters fares better at 87th out of 138. I have to agree, I don’t think Mikko Koivu faced tough competition – not at even strength at least.
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by John Fischer on Jul 16, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s a usage change by Richards. Lemaire had him against other team’s first lines. We’ll see if it lasts.
Ah, I completely forgot about that. Of course, that’s doubly stupid since I just saw Lemaire coach 87 games for NJ last season.
You’re right, Koivu is at the top of the league at QUALCOMP with those filters and near the top in Corsi QoC in 2008-09. 2007-08 was similar, though lower on Corsi QoC.
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by John Fischer on Jul 16, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I have extensively considered contract comparison between the top 2 “young” centers signed this offseason, Koivu and Backstrom. Almost idential cap hits, but with a seeming discrepency in age and point production. While I am of the opinion that Backstrom’s contract was a coup of considerable proportion, I am coming around to seeing the value in Koivu’s Kontract (good on you, Wild fans).
Plekanec’s deal also sheds light on this (good point, Olivier). Perhaps comparing Backstrom and Koivu is not as useful, as Koivu and Plekanec fill more similar overall roles for their team. Plekanec and Koivu score very similarly, and both have teams with some offense that play a defensive style, more or less, and are the same age. Koivu may be more complete with some of the intangibles (a few “advanced” metrics compared between the two would surely help), but it does raise the very real question: Does Koivu’s less-tangible benefit package deserve an additional $1.75M cap hit over Plekanec?
I assert that Minnesota also also placed value on keeping their player, captain, and fan favorite around… and that is worth something. But how much?
by CapitalDominion on Jul 16, 2010 2:36 PM EDT reply actions
It’s anecdotal, but comparable contracts and skill levels make the deal look about right. Eric Staal is at $7.5 mil, Gomez is at $8 mil, Drury is at $8 mil, Toews is at $6.5 mil, Richards is at $6.4 mil. All of these guys will log big minutes, not all do the PK work that Koivu does, nor do all of them win faceoffs at the rate he does. The market is what’s being paid for Koivu-like production.
I’ll concede that Koivu getting over $9 mil on the final year of the contract is a little out there, though.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jul 16, 2010 5:31 PM EDT reply actions
Think it's a fair deal.
Though I don’t know if it’s really possible to “out-perform” a 7 million dollar cap hit. Maybe you exceed the wins per dollar average in replacement, but it’s clear that the market values offensive numbers over intangibles.
The players with a higher cap hit than Koivu are or have been offensive powerhouses, or they are idiot GM maneuvers (See: Scott Gomez).
If guys like M. Richards, Datsyuk, Kesler and Toews take less cap hit, it’s hard to view any performance as “outperforming his value”. Unless he puts up, like 100 points and wins the selke, hart and the conn smythe with the wild as cup champions.
Otherwise he’ll either live up to his billing or be a cap albatross. This is the fate of the A- superstar.
Actual cap hit for Koivu's deal?
Does anyone have a confirmed cap hit for this deal? CapGeek shows it as 6.75M per while NHLNumbers show it as alternating between 7.29M and 5.4M each year until the final 9.18M year.
I’m just wondering which is correct.
If it IS the alternating values, will that shift the cap hit each year? If so, why would a team do that? Seems to me it would be harder to manage the cap that way.
Only thing I can think of is during the 5.4M years, they’d have an extra 1.9M to spend on a 1-year deal for someone.
Ryan
Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.
The alternating money is the cash value of the contract to be paid out (salary and signing bonuses). The cap hit is always the average value over the length of the deal so it’s the same every season.
Thanks
Ryan
Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.
Crapola
I really wanted him to hit free agency. People are saying he is not worth it. And I smile a little cause right there you can tell they don’t watch him play. One of the best kept secrets in the league like I have said a hundred time before.
Since the face been revealed the game got real
Comparables
People tend to look at point totals right away when they see a big contract.
But I think it’s pretty obvious that Koivu at $7 million is a better deal than Danny Briere at $6.5 million, even though 70 points is the least the Flyers should expect from Briere (and haven’t been getting). Koivu just does way more.
Then it occurred to me: Briere has had a couple of excellent playoffs for Philly, including the one just ended.
Which makes me wonder: Is there a way to account for the greater value of playoff performances when evaluating a player and his cap hit?
Obviously, a win in the playoffs is worth more than a win in the regular season. So Briere’s 30 points in 23 playoff games more than makes up for a 53-point reg. season, and makes him somewhat better value for the cap hit. Doesn’t it?
Well I think Briere had a great playoffs, but I don’t think he is worth that contract for the flyers anyway. They had two budding centers on their team who looked special when the Flyers signed Briere, now they MIGHT have to move Carter. Granted Carter and Richards were not this good when thy signed Briere but I didn’t think it was a smart move. But I like briere he is very crafty great playmaker, gets injured a little much but he is not a big guy. So I think normaly if a player scores big in the playoffs then he is worth a lot more then regular. But I would like Briere’s contract a lot better if he was making like no more then 5.5 milion but 5 would be the best.
Since the face been revealed the game got real
Back when Briere signed it was generally agreed that Philly overpaid in both term and money, and that’s turned out to be the case.
I was using his name as an example, just wondering if guys like Gabe account for playoff performance when evaluating a player?
The obvious answer is that a hot playoff (like any other hot streak) is an anomaly. It doesn’t last, and the player reverts to his long-term form.
But that doesn’t account for the fact that a hot streak in the playoffs – even if you think of it as random and unsustainable – is much more valuable than a hot streak in November or February.
Is there any way put a value on this when examining a player’s numbers and sorting out what he’s worth?
by jeff_ogilvie on Jul 17, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m quite sure Gabe doesn’t account for playoff time being “more valuable”, because it means little/nothing going forward. You don’t pay for what you’ve gotten, you pay for what you think you’re going to get. From that point of view, a hot streak in May is no more predictive than a hot streak in October, unless you have a track record of that kind of thing; of all the players in the NHL today, only Johan Franzen MIGHT (and I insist on MIGHT) qualify.
Obviously, you still have to take the playoffs into account. Briere last year wasn’t 53 points in 75 games, he was 83 points in 98 games, which is much better.
Isn't the 7 year contract, in itself, pretty risky? Has there ever been any research that evaluated long term contracts and their "success" rate?
For example, this deal takes him to his mid 30’s. What would be the expected probability that he would still be an elite player at that time?
I think the long contract is a pretty new thing. I mean, after Yashin and Jagr, they really started again with guys like Briere, Gomez, and Crosby/Ovechkin.
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by red army line on Jul 18, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's see what Kovalchuk got
Word is Kovalchuk signed with the Devils and the Toronto Globe and Mail is reporting that he was offered $100 over 17 years at one point.
Without doing any look-up on it, that jumps out to me as likely the longest contract ever. Clearly, most of those years are intended to be post-retirement as I can’t imagine anyone expecting Kovalchuk to pull a Chelios and play well in to his 40s.
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