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Michael Leighton signs with PHI for 2 years, $3.1M

CHICAGO - MAY 29:  Dave Bolland #36 of the Chicago Blackhawks scores a shorthanded goal on goaltender Michael Leighton #49 of the Philadephia Flyers in the first period against the Philadelphia Flyers in Game One of the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Final at the United Center on May 29, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by Andre Ringuette/Getty Images)

I guess it pays to be a bit of a playoff hero.  Leighton, he of the save career save percentage as Vesa Toskala, just got a contract about three times bigger than players with similar talent.  Here are rankings of goaltender save percentage over the last ten years; Leighton is 72nd.  Among 51 goaltenders who were active in 2009-10, he's 47th.

Basically, goalies with Leighton's established talent level make $500k a year.  Philly overpaid for no good reason.

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The value of the hero

I frequently read things like this and find myself wondering if there is not some inherent marketing value in signing a guy like Leighton as opposed to some other retread.

At the end of the day, sports franchises are about making money, which means selling tickets or attracting eyeballs. And while there is little doubt that winning is the number one attraction to fill those seats or draw those eyeballs, around the margins there must be something else to sell. And I wonder how that influences management when anyone with a calculator and a free agent list could do the same math as here.

But if you are Philly, and you are only going to sign a marginal goaltender at best, and you have the cap space, does the extra million or so per season to bring in last years hero, he of the three straight shutouts, the third only all time hockey come back from 3-0, the guy who put the team that needed a shootout win on the last day of the season to get into the playoffs and took them to the Final. I think about whether if selling that story for another year or two doesn’t get you an extra million in revenue.

And I wonder if that isn’t a good reason.

by CalTach on Jun 30, 2010 5:39 PM EDT reply actions  

If you were a team that needed to make significant financial gains via marketing, that would be one thing. I don’t think the Flyers have a revenue problem, and I can’t remember any point in their existence where they’ve needed to do much more than be a good team to fill the coffers.

by Robert Cleave on Jun 30, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Teams also don’t tend to act this way. The best marketing is winning, and Detroit, e.g., has been able to make players take discounts in order to win. Overpaying makes no sense, though it probably means Leighton can retire and do what he wants instead of making $50k a year as a scout.

by Hawerchuk on Jun 30, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you are the playoff hero in Philly, you get millions of dollars

If you are the playoff hero in Montreal, you get a knife in your back!

Heh. This does make me worry about how my Blues are going to have to pay to lock up Halak.

by oplaid on Jun 30, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not much room for disagreement on this one. Good for Leighton, not so much for the Flyers.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 30, 2010 6:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Ugh, people who are all on the Leighton bandwagon piss me off. Sorry, to any reading here.

He had a great season. Why does that mean he deserves a contract? Why does that mean he deserves a multi-year deal? Why does he deserve a 150% raise? Why does he need to be signed to this deal before 10 goalies hit the market and dilute their value??

Sorry, it just doesn’t make sense. If he’s the starter in Philly, fine. Good bargain if the savings are spent wisely. But if he’s the backup, why pay him at least $600k more to replace Brian Boucher?

If this deal was signed a week from now, I’d be fine. Signing it today pisses me off.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 30, 2010 7:26 PM EDT reply actions   3 recs

You made all my points far more eloquently than I could have (due to rage).

New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan

by ToddtheFox on Jun 30, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

any chance this is a face-saving move after the Nabby and Turco and Hamhuis things didn’t go as planned?

by Passive Voice on Jun 30, 2010 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is this really face-saving? Homer couldn’t sign Nabokov, Turco or Hamhuis without them rightly (maybe foolishly in the goalies case) wanting to see what happens in free agency, so signed and overpaid a goalie that caught lightning in a bottle and was one of the luckiest goalies I’ve seen play.

Doesn’t save any face by my books

New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan

by ToddtheFox on Jul 1, 2010 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

hahaha, true. although i suspect anyone dedicated enough to comment around here is probably cleverer than Norman P. Averagefan.

by Passive Voice on Jul 1, 2010 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hah thanks. But really, my Leighton rage must have increased blood flow to my brain or something

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011

by ToddtheFox on Jul 1, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

So because he didn’t arrive as a talent until this year, his salary should forever be tied to his performance as a back-up goaltender on losing teams from 2003-2009?

$1.55 million for the goaltender with the strongest performance through this year’s playoffs. Are people expecting his agent to push for the standard 2% cost-of-living increase that you get as the fry guy at Burger King? The way people are reacting, you’d think he got DiPietro’s contract.

Not to mention, “Hey Mike. Good job. Here’s a little something extra in your next few pay checks.” Is that so wrong? My God.

Whoever the Flyers sign as their starter will go down with something at some point in the season, as they always do. And then Leighton will step in, go on a string of wins, and keep the Flyers ship righted until the starter returns. Is $1.55 million really that much to pay for solid goaltending depth for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations? How many goalies did we go through last year? This isn’t an area where we really need some serious depth?

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 11:05 AM EDT reply actions  

yes, $1.55M is too much to play for the 47th-best goaltender in the NHL.

by Hawerchuk on Jul 1, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

47th best last year? I don’t think you’re being honest here.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m being completely honest. Why would you ignore a player’s entire career?

by Hawerchuk on Jul 1, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll answer your question with a couple of my own, just to show you how absolutely ridiculous this is:

Why wouldn’t you give one of the best playoff performers last season a modest pay increase? Sure 150% is big for you and me. For a SCF goalie? Peanuts.

Does the “entire career” standard apply to skaters as well? Should we start scrutinizing every forward or defenseman who got big pay raises after their first big seasons?

“Well Mike, you’ve saved our bacon twice last season and got us to Game 6 of the SCF (sharp intake of breath), but there were those seasons on really bad teams in Chicago and Carolina. Sorry man, based on that our data says you still suck. Maybe with four more seasons of winning close to 70% of your starts, you can get back to the middle of the pack.”

Honestly, I prefer bloggers to MSM reporters. They’re more fun. They nerd out on things you wouldn’t even consider and certainly wouldn’t find in the newspaper.

But in this instance, I can see why some people just shake their heads and say “f*cking bloggers…” because you look like you’ve got an axe to grind, and your hiding behind numbers plumbed from his time on three cellar dwelling NHL clubs over six years.

From Andy Strickland on Twitter:

Biron still kicking himself for turning down 4 yr. offer from Philly last season worth more than $3 mill per yr.

Leighton got HALF that for being clutch over and over again right up until the SCF. This is an outrage?!

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

The terms “clutch” and “SCF goalie” don’t mean anything. They are labels applied to players after the fact. If Leighton is so valuable, why such a piddling contract? I mean, if he’s a guy who can get you to the Stanley Cup finals, why doesn’t he get $5-6M?

And yes, the “entire career” standard applies to every player. Go to ESPN, grab the top ten scorers from 2008-09. Check out how many fewer goals they scored in 2009-10. Repeat until it’s clear that players who hit performance highs one year don’t hit them the next. So contracts need to look longer-term than one month or one year.

by Hawerchuk on Jul 1, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly. Why are you pissing and moaning about such a pittance of $1.55 million?

Did I say he should be the starter? No. Scroll up and prove me wrong.

Did I suggest $1.5 for what looks like a really good backup ain’t so bad? Absolutely. Scroll up and get your facts straight.

You seem to be stuck on the idea that I think Leighton should get a big pay day and the keys to the house after a solid but incomplete year. Get unstuck.

The money Leighton got is no crime to pay for a solid back-up goaltender who answered the bell again and again last season. You seem to forget the Flyers aren’t even a playoff team without Leighton stepping in and doing everything Brian Boucher could not last year (namely string more than 2 consecutive wins together), for whatever reason.

Oh, and please. If you have the time, I’d LOVE to see your analysis on skaters, pulled from the ***SAME*** data range you pulled your goalies from (2003). And considering that I’m arguing Leighton is a fairly compensated BACKUP, I think Top 10 scorers is an unreasonable limit to set. I’m sure you’ll find plenty of examples of 2nd and 3rd liners who pulled down some pretty good scratch following their first big season. PROVE. ME. WRONG.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

And coincidentally, what would you pay Roman Chechmanek? Your data says he’s really good!

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would pay him $0. He’s 39 years old and he’s been retired for three seasons.

by Hawerchuk on Jul 1, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Apparently spreadsheets eliminate your ability to process sarcasm.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

solid goaltending depth

Boy that’s a belter.

by R O on Jul 1, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Have you seen his record from last year? Man, you’ll laugh at anything then.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve seen a lot of records, from a lot of players, for one year.

I guess that means I can start giving out millions to players now.

by R O on Jul 1, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

When you perform, you get paid. It’s really that simple. And teams hand out millions to players every year based on that axiom. That won’t change any time soon.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

It happens less and less, and those who hand out such contracts live to regret it.

by Hawerchuk on Jul 1, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

So less and less = never. Got it.

And obviously, there should never be any risk associated when signign player contracts.

Dude, are you a cartoon?

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not really sure what is causing your hostility, but you need to tone it down. I’ve never banned someone from this site, but most people keep it under control.

by Hawerchuk on Jul 1, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gabe’s actually Moe Szyslak, yeah.

by Passive Voice on Jul 1, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can I get his phone number? I’m really good at the crank call thing.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 2, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Go ahead and ban me for the use of sarcasm and a word I hear out of my two year old four times daily. No one will accuse you of having a thin skin. /SARCASM

If you’re so convince of the purity of the data, run the same analysis on skaters.

SAME*** date range.

COMPARABLE*** roles (like a 3rd line player, since my argument has revolved around Leighton being the deserving recipient of a well-earned modest raise) TOP 10 means TOP players on teams, and is not in line with what I have been arguing (He’s a really good BACKUP)..

If you don’t find several examples proving exactly what I’ve argued, I’ll eat my hat.

Until then, I appreciate your analysis, but it looks far from complete.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 1:48 PM EDT reply actions  

I honestly can not figure out what you’re talking about. Examples of what?

Feel free to search this blog. I’ve shown that shooting percentage regresses hard to the mean. As does save percentage. Leighton is fungible. When a guy like that wants a raise, you cut him.

by Hawerchuk on Jul 1, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

What I’m talking about is if you used the SAME date range for SIMILAR player roles, you’ll find plenty examples of skaters who received similar raises in salary after their first good year on the score sheet.

I brought up skaters who have benefited from similar increases in salary. You countered with an example using two years of data rather than the eight years you used for your goaltender analysis. That seems unfair.

The example you returned was of Top 10 players. Considering I was talking about a BACK UP goaltender, that is NOT an apples-to-apples comparison. A BACK UP goaltender and a third line skater? That’s a more appropriate context.

And I’m certain that if you look from 2003-2010 (not 2008-2010 as you offered) for players in similar roles (that is to say SECONDARY players such as back up goaltenders and 3rd line skaters – and NOT Top 10 scorers as you offered in your answer), then you will most certainly find plenty of players that got salary increases in line with what the Flyers gave to Leighton after finally producing for the first time in their careers.

All I was asking for was some objectivity and a comparison made in an appropriate context. I really can’t explain it any more simply than that.

Niitymaki just signed in SJ for $4M/2 years. The market has spoken, and the Flyers got Leighton at below market value.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 3:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Dan Ellis 2 years @ $1.5M. Flyers overpaid.

Why would it interest me that GMs sometimes overpay for recent performance? I am trying to project future performance, and unless I’m seriously mistaken about what NHL teams are trying to do, so are they.

by Hawerchuk on Jul 1, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

So the assumption is that paying a player on recent performance guarantees the player’s failure to live up to his salary moving forward.

Well why didn’t you say so!

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

And if the Flyers could’ve had Ellis at that price, he’d be here instead of Jody Shelly and Sean O’Donnell.

Whether it was Ellis, or it was the Flyers, clearly one of the two parties had no interest.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or maybe Ellis was overrated? 2010’s version of Biron?

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

What I’m talking about is if you used the SAME date range for SIMILAR player roles, you’ll find plenty examples of skaters who received similar raises in salary after their first good year on the score sheet.
And I’m certain that if you look from 2003-2010 (not 2008-2010 as you offered) for players in similar roles (that is to say SECONDARY players such as back up goaltenders and 3rd line skaters – and NOT Top 10 scorers as you offered in your answer), then you will most certainly find plenty of players that got salary increases in line with what the Flyers gave to Leighton after finally producing for the first time in their careers.

All I was asking for was some objectivity and a comparison made in an appropriate context. I really can’t explain it any more simply than that.

I don’t think there’s any debate GMs have given guys big contracts after one good season or after a stellar postseason, but that doesn’t mean that it’s a good idea.

by David Getz on Jul 1, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure, but does that guarantee a player automatically fails?

There’s risk in signing any player. Why should Leighton be any different, especially when he turned in a good effort?

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 1, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Players without track records often fail. That is fact.

If this were poker instead of hockey then it’d be a no-brainer, winning once or even going on a short run isn’t an indicator of future winning. Apparently hockey is rocket science by comparison.

by R O on Jul 1, 2010 4:17 PM EDT reply actions  

“Often fail” does not mean “always fail.”

As I’ve already stated, there’s risk in any signing. And if you always play it safe in poker, you’ll be lucky to break even. Not exactly what you reach for with SCF aspirations.

The Flyers went into last season with Emery, Boucher, and Leighton – which was seen as a gamble. Guess what? It was good enough to get them to the dance.

And if you want to point to the fact that it wasn’t good enough to win a cup, then consider there are 29 other teams in the league that make the safer bet and have nothing to show for it either.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Jul 2, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tell you what. Use that logic, go ahead and bet your house on a venture that fails more than half the time, when there are bets to be had that succeed more than half the time. Then get back to me.

by R O on Jul 2, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha, logic. You see logic there?

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Jul 3, 2010 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

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