Henrik Sedin and True Shooting Talent

On January 22nd, I wrote about how Henrik Sedin's early-season goal-scoring 'breakout' was illusory.  How has he done since then?

 

G  SH SH%
Career 137 1036 13.2
Since Jan 22 7 50 14.0
Oct-Jan 22 21 99 21.2

 

Oddly enough, my mere mention of Henrik's likely regression to the mean caused him to do so.

In that same post, I asked readers to vote on how many goals Henrik was likely to score this season.  Looking over the results - 347 votes - the mean estimate was around 34.  Henrik has 28 goals with nine games to play - what are the odds that he reaches 34?

Based on his season and career numbers, the most likely thing that happens is that he takes between 13 and 19 shots and scores 2 goals, finishing the season with a career-high of 30.  This would give him an 18% shooting percentage for the season. 

If you were going to bet on Henrik Sedin's shooting percentage next season, would you take the over or the under on 18%?  Note that in the original post, one of the commenters definitely took the over: "this whole discussion is meaningless...henrik will still end up with 35+ goals, so the discussion is also wrong...henrik is for real. there’s no way he regresses."

Anybody else?!

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