Game Preview: Do We Hab to Beat These Guys Again?
by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 4, 2012 2:22 PM EST
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PrintWell, if you're going to twist our arms...
The Jets and Canadiens meet in Montreal in nearly the opposite situation tonight, with the Habs wallowing in the bottom of the Northeast Division (3-7-0 in the last 10 games) and the Jets in a hot race for the top of the Southeast (6-3-1 in the last 10). At the same time, we have to be aware that we have yet to play particularly well on the road (a problem for many teams), and the Canadiens are not quite as bad as their record indicates are nut-dirt terrible (because we like losing to those kinds of teams).
On the flip side, we are playing well, our goaltending is bouncing back strong, and there's the possibility we'll get Bryan Little back within the next couple of games (possibly tonight). Let's also remember that we won last time thanks to Randy Cunneyworth's inability to speak French, so we'll want to be sure to hammer on that hard this evening.
Keys to the game and lineup after the jump...
Keys to the Game
- See if our forwards can take advantage of the Raphael Diaz or Hal Gill, particularly if they are paired with Tomas Kaberle, Yannick Weber, or Alexei Emelin. They haven't done particularly well defensively, and we know just about anybody can generate offence against Kaberle, Weber, or Emelin.
- Remember when the Habs ran all over us in our opener? Their speed killed us, and even though they don't have Brian Gionta or Scott Gomez around (due to injury), Mike Cammalleri and Tomas Plekanec can still give us a run. I'm sure Noel will be sure to have those guys matched up appropriately.
- Montreal does not take a ton of penalties, so please please please don't take any.
Lineups
Jets
Forwards
#9 Evander Kane - #14 Tim Stapleton - #26 Blake Wheeler
#16 Andrew Ladd - #80 Nik Antropov - #13 Kyle Wellwood
#15 Tanner Glass - #8 Alexander Burmistrov - #20 Antti Miettinen
#17 Eric Fehr - #19 Jim Slater - #22 Chris Thorburn
Defencemen
#39 Tobias Enstrom - #6 Ron Hainsey
#29 Johnny Oduya - #4 Zach Bogosian
#5 Mark Stuart - #12 Randy Jones
Goaltender
#31 Ondrej Pavelec
I chose to leave Bryan Little (#18) out for the moment, as the Jets might play it safe and play him in the second game. I'll switch it around if need be. If he does play, it might bump Steam Punk off the top line. Also, it looks like Jim Slater and Randy Jones have returned.
Canadiens
Forwards
#67 Max Pacioretty - #14 Tomas Plekanec - #72 Erik Cole
#13 Mike Cammalleri - #51 David Desharnais - #45 Mike Blunden
#32 Travis Moen - #81 Lars Eller - #46 Andrei Kostitsyn
#52 Mathieu Darche - #15 Petteri Nokelainen - Lots of people
Defencemen
#26 Josh Gorges - #76 P.K. Subban
#74 Alexei Emelin - #61 Raphael Diaz
#75 Hal Gill - #22 Tomas Kaberle
Goaltender
#31 Carey Price
The 4th line and those defensive pairings are a bit of an adventure lately, as Cunneyworth has been doing a lot of rearranging. Yannick Weber (#68) has been floating around, getting plugged into the forward lines here and there, but he could just as likely swap into the defensive shuffle.
Player to boo without mercy: Carey Price. I will always say this with the Habs.
Prediction: Winnipeg 1, Montreal 2
Tough game, tough venue, let's hope the Jets can start 2012 on a positive note.
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the Canadiens are not quite as bad as their record indicates
They are as bad as their record indicates over the last month.
The only reason their team fenwick is respectable is because they had a great October/early November, but weren’t rewarded with wins. Their fenwick since December 1st is .432 and it hasn’t improved under Cunneyworth.
I trust the larger sample size.
Could be we caught a high and a low. Team is probably somewhere in between.
I suspect that the losses of Gionta and especially Gomez don't help
It might be a legitimate low, unless the PDO is also low.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 4, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Their fenwick has crashed since Gomez’s second injury.
Up until that point we were convinced over at EOTP that the Habs were a good team and that they would turn it around. On November 21st their Fenwick was .544 (close) and their PDO was 1007. Since that point it is .432 and their PDO is 1015.
Martin was holding it together and if Price had stolen a couple of shootouts he probably wouldn’t have been fired.
We were expecting Markov back in late November, instead the Habs lost Gomez, Gionta and Markov had a setback and they have been terrible.
Before I concede the point
What’s their PDO over December?
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 4, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
They have been awful. Since Martin was axed they have struggled to stay in games. They are a good team if healthy, but they aren’t healthy and don’t look to be so in a while.
This isn’t based on my eyes. Look at the metrics, it is all there.
That's why I asked about the PDO
Believe me, I know the metrics. And I concede the point: the Habs are nut-dirt terrible.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 4, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
The chart is pretty stunning:
http://behindthenet.ca/MTL_2011.html
You can point at the dive at game #22, which not coincidentally is the one Gomez got injured in. That was right after thoroughly dominating Boston in a 1-0 losing effort in game #21 (another theme this year).
What is worse than nut-dirt terrible?
by truck on Jan 4, 2012 11:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Their 5-on-5 PDO is currently a little underwater.
But their 5-on-4 PDO? The Habs not only have the worst 5-on-4 shooting percentage in the league, there’s only one team that’s shooting worse 5-on-5. This constitutes an improvement. The Habs are 8th in 5-on-4 shot generation and dead last in PP efficiency.
Somehow they managed a -3 non-empty-net goal differential in spite of this (helped by a genuinely awesome PK), which while very mediocre still generally should net you better than 27th in the league.
Are they trying to run the powerplay
off of PK’s shot from the point? I wonder if teams are shutting that part down, and it’s having a watershed effect.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 4, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
According to Olivier’s chances counts, the only time they had real trouble generating scoring chances was in the span between when they took Plekanec off the point and when they traded for Kaberle.
Subban wasn’t even on the first wave for a long while. Weber was, and he’s probably the better PP shooter really. But if teams were shutting the point man down, I wouldn’t expect the Habs to be top-10 in 5-on-4 shot generation; rather, the shots wouldn’t get through.
I mean, they’re shooting 6.6% on the PP. Second-worst is 8.1%.
this next comment makes me an ass, because I was supposed to do the preview...
but Slater is in for Cormier, who is now back at the farm
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
i had extreme doubts on his playing today. Noel doesn't rush people back
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Jan 4, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Good to have AC back
…ass.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 4, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
oh...and Randy Jones is in for Flood
:)
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Jan 4, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
Not so good to have Jones back
…ass.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 4, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Heh heh heh
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Jan 4, 2012 4:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Boooooooooooooooooooooooo!
Screw you Randy Jones.
You have been banned from Stampede Blue.
You apparently aren't interested in commenting on the Colts, but instead just want to take shots at editors for how we manage our blog. Thus, you're now no longer welcome.
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jan 4, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Do we think Jones is that much worse Flood?
I know his Corsi sucks but most of that is from early in the year when he was delivering free pizzas, the whole team was terrible. Not to mention he got thrown under a Buff a few times.
I think Jones is awful, honestly.
Flood is younger, cheaper and has played better.
You have been banned from Stampede Blue.
You apparently aren't interested in commenting on the Colts, but instead just want to take shots at editors for how we manage our blog. Thus, you're now no longer welcome.
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jan 4, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
It's not that I dislike Jones
but I like Flood more, and I know Flood’s the odd man out.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 4, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
I also like Flood more.
But coach seems to believe we have be better chance to win with Jones in the lineup.
I hope he is right.
I wonder if the other factors are coming into play here (ie. salary and locker room loyalty)
because Noel has shown a LOT of confidence in Flood this year.
You have been banned from Stampede Blue.
You apparently aren't interested in commenting on the Colts, but instead just want to take shots at editors for how we manage our blog. Thus, you're now no longer welcome.
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jan 4, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know if salary is a huge factor.
Salary would matter more if they were sending one down.
Both guys have played somewhat sheltered minutes.
I think Flood got PP time because of injuries more than anything.
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