Mark Scheifele Projections and Comps
by Hawerchuk on Jul 25, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
in Prospects
Email
Print
In the second of my two posts on projecting junior players, a commenter asked about Mark Scheifele's comps. I took the 100-most comparable forwards in junior - within two months of his age on draft day and with between 1.0 and 1.33 points per game, adjusted for historical context. Let's look at how many games those comps played, by percentile:
0-48%: 0 GP
50%: 24 GP
60%: 58 GP
75%: 211 GP
90%: 442 GP
95%: 475 GP
Or, represented graphically:
Overall, Scheifele's comps played fewer than three seasons in the NHL before Age 26 80% of the time. Those are terrible odds, so let's focus on the top end:
| Player | GP |
| Trevor Linden | 611 |
| Steve Yzerman | 594 |
| Pat Verbeek | 537 |
| Jason Wiemer | 509 |
| Ryan Smyth | 491 |
| Andrew McBain | 475 |
| Patrick Poulin | 454 |
| Adam Deadmarsh | 453 |
| Paul Gillis | 449 |
| Sylvain Turgeon | 442 |
Those aren't bad outcomes, and there are a few other good players beyond the top 10, including some late bloomers who still brought value to their drafting teams: Russ Courtnall (also a #7 pick), Simon Gagne, Darcy Tucker, JP Dumont, Brenden Morrow, Ray Whitney, Ryan Getzlaf and Brad Boyes. But there have only been three bombs in the #7 draft slot in the last 30 years, so picking a guy there with a 50% chance of not having an NHL career seems like a really bad move.
7 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Interesting breakdown.
I will be living in a puddle of my own cream if he can turn into anything close to a Stevie Y.
I am very curious to see how this plays out. Projections be damned I am an optimist.
Now for my other question, Is Couturier the highest ranked player from this year’s draft according to this evaluation method?
Yes. He’s nearly off the chart.
On the Mike Weber bandwagon!
I hate Christian Ehrhoff because he should have been Tomas Kaberle.
So maybe everybody is a bunch of idiots.
Or maybe there is something that the data doesn’t show. Time will tell.
Bet on the subject line of that statement.
Blueshirt Banter - Muddling in Mediocrity - Fantasy Hockey Scouts
US Soccer/Red Sox Supporter
That one fanpost on Copper and Blue about how RNH really started to rise and Couturier began to fall when RNH went on fire for two weeks in February was really telling. Well, maybe not telling, but it’s certainly within the realms or reason (for me) that RNH rose for his hot streak (two good playoff games got Button to rank Seguin over Hall in a re-draft, after all) and Couturier, judged against him, fell.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Jul 25, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Couturier's "disappointing" WJC certainly didn't help
Though, from hearing that he was recovering from mono, it makes more sense why he looked somewhat weaker out there.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Couturier was the #2 guy I wanted for New Jersey at 4th overall, after Larsson – who I really did think would go in the top 3. After reading so much about him, looking at him put up fantastic numbers at age 17 and 18 in the Q, and considering all of the reports, it seemed clear to me that Couturier was the victim of familiarity. Yes, he put up 96 points in 10 fewer games and he went to the WJCs as the only undrafted player and was named the QMJHL MVP; but because scouts have been following him for about a year or so and thinking the world of him earlier, over time they started getting more and more picky with their criticisms (skating, having mono, not a good WJC, etc.) and fell off in many draft rankings. In contrast, whereas Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jonathan Huberdeau had the advantages of breaking out in 2010-11, being a little younger than Couturier, and being “fresher” in the eyes of many so they weren’t picked apart as much as Couturier.
In short: I have high hopes for Couturier and I’m not happy at the idea of seeing him in Philly for years to come. Winnipeg totally should have jumped on him at seventh overall. But who knows, I could be wrong.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Jul 25, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Arctic Ice Hockey
Related FanShots on Arctic Ice Hockey
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
