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Winnipeg OZQoC Graphs

NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 07:  Andrew Ladd #16 of the Atlanta Thrashers celebrates his goal against the New York Rangers during their game on April 7, 2011 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.  (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

An OZQoc Graph is a graphical representation of a player's role.  On the x-axis is their Offensive Zone Starts in reverse direction, and on the y-axis is their Relative Corsi-based Quality of Competition.  Each point label features an abbreviation of the player's name, and their Relative Corsi. 

 

Without further ado, knowing that further analysis and explanation is to come after the jump, here is the OZQoC graph for Winnipeg's forwards - minimum 10 GP, and including unsigned RFAs and UFAs.

 Wpg_ozqoc_f_medium

Star-divide

The toughest jobs are those in the upper right-hand quadrant - players with the lowest offensive zone starts to the far right, and those facing the toughest competition up above.  In Winnipeg's case that include Radek Dvorak, Rob Schremp, and Patrice Cormier.  Granted, none of these players got very much ice-time in an Atlanta uniform.  Nik Antropov finds himself in this quadrant but only barely.

 

Likewise, the easiest jobs are on the lower-left.  These are the sheltered players who started primarily in the offensive zone on the far left, and faced the weakest, fourth-line competition at the bottom.  Last season that included Spencer Machacek, Ben Maxwell, Tim Stapleton and Alexander Burmistrov.

 

The top-left are those that faced tough competition, but played mostly in the offensive zone, so these could arguably be considered good two-way players, or at least players whose offense was good enough to compensate for any defensive deficiencies.  Here you have Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Evander Kane and Anthony Stewart.

 

Finally, the lower-right are those who faced weak competition, but didn't start primarily in the offensive zone.  You could consider these depth players, and in this case includes enforcer Eric Boulton, Jim Slater, and Chris Thorburn.

 

Since Relative Corsi can be greatly influenced by both of these factors (offensive zone starts and Quality of Competition), an OZQoC graph is a great way to place possession scores in context. 

 

For example, Alexander Burmitsov mostly played sheltered minutes in the offensive zone, and yet was still underwater possession-wise, unlike nearby Tim Stapleton.  And take a look at Andrew Ladd, who faces the toughest competition, and yet the only forward on the team who was better possession-wise is Bryan Little - but just barely, and possibly because he had a higher offensive zone start.

 

Long story short, a quick look at this graph can tell you at a glance how each player is being used, and the context in which to consider their numbers.  Here's the OZQoC Graph for their defensemen.

 Wpg_ozqoc_d_medium

The toughest assignments went to Zach Bogosian, reinforcing those who have argued that he's actually Atlanta's best defenseman.  Freddy Meyer also played some tough minutes, as did Ron Hainsey and Johnny Oduya.

 

Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien got the toughest competition (other than Bogosian), but started primarily in the offensive zone, giving them much better possession numbers.  Note how much better Byfuglien's Relative Corsi number is than Enstrom's, despite being in used in roughly the same role and situation. 

 

The only defenseman that was sheltered last season was Mark Stuart, who started primarily in the offensive zone (albeit just barely), and faced weaker competition - it's surprising that he still managed the 2nd worse possession numbers.

 

Well, that's the OZQoC Graphs for your new team - keep them handy whenever you're evaluating situation-based statistics.  Being a new thing, this is a great time to make suggestions, so please be generous with your comments.

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Very cool.

I’m still pretty green when it comes to advanced hockey stats, but I think a color coding would help show who is doing well in the possession battle and who isn’t. Like, red dots/bubbles for those winning it and blue for those losing it (or whatever colors you may choose).

You could also go with a bubble graph. I used a one when looking at the Detroit Tigers bullpen usage back in April and had the players pitching metric on the x-axis, leverage index on the y-axis and the size of the bubble was relative to the number of batters each pitcher faced. I thought it turned out well. So something like that could be of use and would allow you to have just the names of the players near the dots/bubbles to make it easier to read.

I’m going to grab the data for the Red Wings and see what my suggestion will look like.

by Mike Rogers on Jun 20, 2011 5:04 PM EDT reply actions  

This is awesome. Wish I could see graphs like these for the Habs. It really breaks down a ton of information into a clear and easy to understand format. Very cool. Some slightly shocking developments as well, like Meyer being leaned on heavily, or Schremp getting tough competition and defensive zone starts when he’s known as a one-dimensional PP specialist.

Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire

by Andrew Berkshire on Jun 20, 2011 5:06 PM EDT reply actions  

They're easy to do

All three things can easily be obtained from behindthenet.ca. Drop it into Excel, make a chart, and with a little fiddling you can make an OZQoC Chart for Montreal.

Meyer shouldn’t be a surprise. Back in 2009-10 he played 3.5 short-handed minutes per game, started in the offensive zone just 36.8% of the time, with a RQoC of 1.00. Of course, he was also -19 in 27 games :)

But you’re totally right about Schremp. 2009-10 was more typical: 52.1% offensive zone start, -0.24 RQoC. He gets absolutely no penalty killing time, so his tough even-strength assignment in 2010-11 could have been a result of two lousy teams not really having very many easy even-strength assignments available for him.

by Rob Vollman on Jun 20, 2011 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

My take:

(Click here to enlarge)

I moved Relative Qual Comp from the y-axis to the x-axis and took the Rel Corsi and put that on the y-axis. Bubble size DOES NOT matter like I was thinking about doing in my previous comment. I elected to color code with, obviously, those in blue getting more defensive starts than offensive starts and red for the opposite.

So, we see Jan Mursak in his tiny, tiny sample really drove the play. He, however, also had a 60.9% o-zone start%.

Players who had larger samples, it shows pretty clearly Datsyuk/Zetterberg being the best as you would expect. Majority of their shifts starting in their own zone, drew the toughest competition and were positive drivers of the play. Drew Miller on the other hand struggled against lesser competition despite getting out there for more offensive starts than defensive ones.

Note: this is 5v5 data only.

I’ve got another idea in mind that I’ll post in a bit.

by Mike Rogers on Jun 20, 2011 6:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Mark Stuart

Still can’t believe he was signed to 3 year, $5.1 MM contract. The blue line in Boston was a weakness and he was often a health scratch while there.

At the same time, this just reinforces my desire for the Bogosian to Boston rumours to start up again. Unfortunately, I’m guessing that one of the interview questions when Chevy was hired is, “Do you think Bogosian is one of our best defencemen or one of our worst?”

by Bourque77 on Jun 20, 2011 7:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Love it. It’s an easy way to see the type of icetime each player is getting. Visual representation is so useful and yet I always forget to use it. Nice job Rob!

Ryan Popilchak

Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

by SO_RyanP on Jun 21, 2011 12:39 AM EDT reply actions  

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