Having established expected Zone Shift over the last four years, and using that data to put together a new metric, Balanced Zone Shift or BZS, I took a little time looking at the top and bottom 20 players in that statistic in each of the four seasons from 2007-08 to 2010-11. This time, I want to do a couple of things. For one, I'm going to look at all the players that complete at least 3 seasons of 50 or more games and average out their BZS across those 3 or 4 seasons. I'm also going to include their standard deviations across those two seasons, and my reasoning is this: if a player is closely repeating their performance across three seasons or more, we are getting a pretty good idea of that player's talent. So I want to draw attention to players that are giving us the best idea of their true talent over the last four seasons.
Of all the BZS postings, I like this one the most because I think it brings us closest to seeing the players that succeed by this metric.
Player | ZoneS% | BZS | Stdev | Player | ZoneS% | BZS | Stdev | |
Sidney Crosby | 52.6 | 3.606 | 1.605 | Raitis Ivanans | 55.3 | -6.047 | 2.021 | |
Pavel Datsyuk | 51 | 3.591 | 1.356 | MarcAndre Bergeron | 57.2 | -4.545 | 3.431 | |
Patrik Berglund | 61.2 | 3.263 | 2.218 | Brian Sutherby | 54.7 | -3.999 | 2.152 | |
Ryane Clowe | 50.9 | 3.142 | 1.915 | Kris Russell | 63.4 | -3.946 | 4.871 | |
Paul Stastny | 50.9 | 3.12 | 1.666 | George Parros | 63.6 | -3.823 | 1.732 | |
Manny Malhotra | 39.7 | 3.001 | 2.586 | Mike Rupp | 53.5 | -3.605 | 2.807 | |
Brandon Dubinsky | 55.5 | 2.864 | 2.007 | Jared Boll | 52 | -3.516 | 2.08 | |
Robert Lang | 52.7 | 2.854 | 2.906 | Jamal Mayers | 49.6 | -2.946 | 1.665 | |
Zach Parise | 56.2 | 2.849 | 0.579 | Daniel Briere | 55.8 | -2.942 | 2.084 | |
Tomas Holmstrom | 54.8 | 2.764 | 1.754 | Krys Barch | 57.7 | -2.871 | 2.314 | |
Douglas Murray | 52.5 | 2.735 | 2.194 | Zack Stortini | 45.4 | -2.842 | 3.393 | |
Milan Michalek | 54.3 | 2.693 | 3.139 | Kurtis Foster | 54.3 | -2.789 | 2.393 | |
Mark Giordano | 57.1 | 2.676 | 2.67 | Travis Moen | 45.1 | -2.714 | 1.394 | |
Ales Hemsky | 50.9 | 2.675 | 1.514 | Patrick Eaves | 51 | -2.635 | 2.663 | |
Jarome Iginla | 55.1 | 2.635 | 0.742 | Colton Orr | 49.6 | -2.622 | 5.664 | |
Joe Pavelski | 49.6 | 2.6 | 2.512 | Jody Shelley | 56.1 | -2.614 | 3.697 | |
Mike Weaver | 43.9 | 2.57 | 1.38 | Mason Raymond | 52.1 | -2.594 | 4.043 | |
Patrick Sharp | 59.9 | 2.5 | 1.557 | James Sheppard | 43.1 | -2.55 | 2.848 | |
Brenden Morrow | 55.8 | 2.467 | 2.001 | Niclas Wallin | 48.8 | -2.518 | 2.112 | |
Scott Nichol | 39.9 | 2.441 | 4.114 | Eric Boulton | 46 | -2.369 | 2.253 | |
Blair Betts | 40.3 | 2.431 | 4.002 | Ruslan Salei | 51.5 | -2.274 | 1.903 | |
Andrew Ladd | 48.5 | 2.408 | 1.429 | Erik Christensen | 48.7 | -2.199 | 2.377 | |
Joe Thornton | 53.4 | 2.343 | 1.748 | Jack Johnson | 50.7 | -2.191 | 0.54 | |
Kevin Klein | 45.6 | 2.341 | 0.182 | Richard Park | 40.7 | -2.177 | 2.811 | |
Nicklas Lidstrom | 51.7 | 2.341 | 0.467 | Steven Stamkos | 54.9 | -2.186 | 0.53 | |
Adam Foote | 43.8 | 2.315 | 4.435 | Petteri Nokelainen | 52 | -2.172 | 1.796 | |
David Krejci | 50.4 | 2.238 | 2.66 | Jeff Halpern | 41.8 | -2.123 | 1.523 | |
Dan Boyle | 52.3 | 2.235 | 1.057 | Derek Dorsett | 47.4 | -2.116 | 2.536 | |
Henrik Zetterberg | 51.1 | 2.21 | 1.226 | Guillaume Latendresse | 46.7 | -2.114 | 1.271 | |
Marc Staal | 51.3 | 2.198 | 2.193 | David Moss | 54 | -2.064 | 2.625 |
Player | BZS | Stdev |
Mike Mottau | -0.484 | 0.121 |
Wade Redden | -0.077 | 0.159 |
Kevin Klein | 2.341 | 0.182 |
Glen Metropolit | 0.079 | 0.248 |
Dion Phaneuf | 0.038 | 0.265 |
Eric Staal | 1.445 | 0.276 |
Dan Carcillo | 1.129 | 0.317 |
Jason Strudwick | 0.947 | 0.332 |
Dave Steckel | -1.115 | 0.343 |
Tom Poti | 2.062 | 0.347 |
Steve Bernier | -1.75 | 0.368 |
Bobby Ryan | -1.941 | 0.389 |
Andrei Kostitsyn | 0.614 | 0.449 |
Nicklas Lidstrom | 2.341 | 0.467 |
Chris Pronger | -1.084 | 0.478 |
Tomas Fleischmann | -1.462 | 0.488 |
Pavel Kubina | 0.247 | 0.516 |
Marc Methot | 0.039 | 0.519 |
Shane Doan | 1.193 | 0.523 |
Clarke MacArthur | 0.381 | 0.524 |
What really jumps out to me, outside of the interesting mix of player types, is the low opinion that this metric has for goons and offensive defensemen and the high regard it has for Kevin Klein and Mike Weaver. What I like the most, outside of the positive measure of players like Klein, Weaver, and Manny Malhotra, is that we see a player like Dan Carcillo giving us a positive value. The fact that a player can fight but still be a positive player seems to me a prediction for the future, where in a league with a higher degree of parity (as we have right now) you will want to make sure that your fighters can also play hockey. In closing, one thing I want to stress is that the players in the middle of this metric, say from +1 to -1 in BZS, could likely alter their value from the metric if they can put the puck in the net.