BZS 3- and 4-Year-Average Leaders, 2007-08 to 2010-11

Having established expected Zone Shift over the last four years, and using that data to put together a new metric,  Balanced Zone Shift or BZS, I took a little time looking at the top and bottom 20 players in that statistic in each of the four seasons from 2007-08 to 2010-11.  This time, I want to do a couple of things.  For one, I'm going to look at all the players that complete at least 3 seasons of 50 or more games and average out their BZS across those 3 or 4 seasons.  I'm also going to include their standard deviations across those two seasons, and my reasoning is this: if a player is closely repeating their performance across three seasons or more, we are getting a pretty good idea of that player's talent.  So I want to draw attention to players that are giving us the best idea of their true talent over the last four seasons.

Of all the BZS postings, I like this one the most because I think it brings us closest to seeing the players that succeed by this metric.

Player   ZoneS% BZS Stdev
Player   ZoneS% BZS Stdev
Sidney Crosby  52.6 3.606 1.605
Raitis Ivanans 55.3 -6.047 2.021
Pavel Datsyuk  51 3.591 1.356
MarcAndre Bergeron 57.2 -4.545 3.431
Patrik Berglund  61.2 3.263 2.218
Brian Sutherby 54.7 -3.999 2.152
Ryane Clowe  50.9 3.142 1.915
Kris Russell 63.4 -3.946 4.871
Paul Stastny  50.9 3.12 1.666
George Parros 63.6 -3.823 1.732
Manny Malhotra  39.7 3.001 2.586
Mike Rupp 53.5 -3.605 2.807
Brandon Dubinsky  55.5 2.864 2.007
Jared Boll 52 -3.516 2.08
Robert Lang  52.7 2.854 2.906
Jamal Mayers 49.6 -2.946 1.665
Zach Parise  56.2 2.849 0.579
Daniel Briere 55.8 -2.942 2.084
Tomas Holmstrom  54.8 2.764 1.754
Krys Barch 57.7 -2.871 2.314
Douglas Murray  52.5 2.735 2.194
Zack Stortini 45.4 -2.842 3.393
Milan Michalek  54.3 2.693 3.139
Kurtis Foster 54.3 -2.789 2.393
Mark Giordano  57.1 2.676 2.67
Travis Moen 45.1 -2.714 1.394
Ales Hemsky  50.9 2.675 1.514
Patrick Eaves 51 -2.635 2.663
Jarome Iginla  55.1 2.635 0.742
Colton Orr 49.6 -2.622 5.664
Joe Pavelski  49.6 2.6 2.512
Jody Shelley 56.1 -2.614 3.697
Mike Weaver  43.9 2.57 1.38
Mason Raymond 52.1 -2.594 4.043
Patrick Sharp  59.9 2.5 1.557
James Sheppard 43.1 -2.55 2.848
Brenden Morrow  55.8 2.467 2.001
Niclas Wallin 48.8 -2.518 2.112
Scott Nichol  39.9 2.441 4.114
Eric Boulton 46 -2.369 2.253
Blair Betts  40.3 2.431 4.002
Ruslan Salei 51.5 -2.274 1.903
Andrew Ladd  48.5 2.408 1.429
Erik Christensen 48.7 -2.199 2.377
Joe Thornton  53.4 2.343 1.748
Jack Johnson 50.7 -2.191 0.54
Kevin Klein  45.6 2.341 0.182
Richard Park 40.7 -2.177 2.811
Nicklas Lidstrom  51.7 2.341 0.467
Steven Stamkos 54.9 -2.186 0.53
Adam Foote  43.8 2.315 4.435
Petteri Nokelainen 52 -2.172 1.796
David Krejci  50.4 2.238 2.66
Jeff Halpern 41.8 -2.123 1.523
Dan Boyle  52.3 2.235 1.057
Derek Dorsett 47.4 -2.116 2.536
Henrik Zetterberg  51.1 2.21 1.226
Guillaume Latendresse 46.7 -2.114 1.271
Marc Staal  51.3 2.198 2.193
David Moss 54 -2.064 2.625
Player BZS Stdev
Mike Mottau  -0.484 0.121
Wade Redden  -0.077 0.159
Kevin Klein  2.341 0.182
Glen Metropolit  0.079 0.248
Dion Phaneuf  0.038 0.265
Eric Staal  1.445 0.276
Dan Carcillo  1.129 0.317
Jason Strudwick  0.947 0.332
Dave Steckel  -1.115 0.343
Tom Poti  2.062 0.347
Steve Bernier  -1.75 0.368
Bobby Ryan  -1.941 0.389
Andrei Kostitsyn  0.614 0.449
Nicklas Lidstrom  2.341 0.467
Chris Pronger  -1.084 0.478
Tomas Fleischmann  -1.462 0.488
Pavel Kubina  0.247 0.516
Marc Methot  0.039 0.519
Shane Doan  1.193 0.523
Clarke MacArthur  0.381 0.524

What really jumps out to me, outside of the interesting mix of player types, is the low opinion that this metric has for goons and offensive defensemen and the high regard it has for Kevin Klein and Mike Weaver.  What I like the most, outside of the positive measure of players like Klein, Weaver, and Manny Malhotra, is that we see a player like Dan Carcillo giving us a positive value.  The fact that a player can fight but still be a positive player seems to me a prediction for the future, where in a league with a higher degree of parity (as we have right now) you will want to make sure that your fighters can also play hockey.  In closing, one thing I want to stress is that the players in the middle of this metric, say from +1 to -1 in BZS, could likely alter their value from the metric if they can put the puck in the net.

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