Fenwick Power Rankings

One of the great things about shot differential (when the score is close) is that it stabilizes after a very small number of games. Fenwick ratios don't capture the entirety of a team's ability, but what single statistic does? The perfect is the enemy of the good, and Fenwick is as good as we can get with a simple stat.

The rankings haven't moved much in recent weeks - Detroit has been #1 all year, and Vancouver and Chicago have been near the top like they were last season:

RANK LSTYR TEAM CLOSE PDO
1 8 DET 57.16 1014
2 9 STL 55.81 1001
3 4 VAN 55.02 985
4 2 CHI 54.40 991
5 14 BOS 53.00 1005
6 5 PIT 52.67 981
7 16 WSH 52.04 990
8 6 N.J 52.01 1002
9 18 PHX 51.64 1009
10 22 FLA 51.10 986
11 24 COL 50.86 992
12 1 S.J 50.86 1017
13 9 CBJ 50.72 990
14 15 L.A 50.50 990
15 20 OTT 50.07 991
16 11 MTL 50.04 998
17 12 PHI 49.84 1020
18 21 WPG 49.64 1014
19 26 TOR 48.58 1013
20 27 NYI 48.39 990
21 3 T.B 48.37 983
22 29 EDM 48.27 1001
23 13 BUF 47.93 1025
24 7 CGY 47.76 1008
25 23 DAL 47.41 998
26 19 NYR 46.91 1003
27 25 CAR 46.70 990
28 17 NSH 44.93 1007
29 30 MIN 43.86 1024
30 28 ANA 43.63 990

The biggest regressions are Tampa, San Jose and Calgary, while Colorado and (inexplicably) Florida have made the biggest jumps. Minnesota and Anaheim are comfortably ensconced in last place, but Minnesota's high PDO, driven by high shooting percentage and even higher save percentage, makes the Wild look like geniuses while the Ducks have assembled a circular firing squad.

In terms of likely movers and shakers in the second-half standings, Minnesota is first in line for a fall, followed by the New York Rangers (who've been incredibly lucky on the PP) and the Nashville Predators. Teams trending in the other direction include Washington, Los Angeles and Columbus - though it's too late to save them.

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