If a guy had 112 points last year, how many will he have this year?
by Hawerchuk on Sep 1, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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PrintI'm looking at you, Henrik Sedin. If we look at 115 players who put up roughly similar point totals over the last 40 years, we can see that it's not likely to be 112 again:
| Per 82 | G | A | P | Sh | Sh% | Age |
| H Sedin | 29 | 83 | 112 | 166 | 17.5 | 29.3 |
| Year 0 | 47 | 64 | 111 | 266 | 17.5 | 25.4 |
| Year 1 | 40 | 59 | 99 | 253 | 15.7 | 26.4 |
Remember - players who do amazing things in one season typically do them because everything broke right for them: only 1-in-5 of our similar group maintained or exceeded his scoring totals the following season. Of course, that group of players has a very different profile from a playmaker like Henrik Sedin. What if we look at other playmakers? Well, we only end up with 18 player-seasons, from a dozen players:
| Per 82 | G | A | P | Sh | Sh% | Age |
| H Sedin | 29 | 83 | 112 | 166 | 17.5 | 29.3 |
| Year 0 | 28 | 84 | 112 | 248 | 11.5 | 25.8 |
| Year 1 | 31 | 77 | 108 | 256 | 12.2 | 26.8 |
That drop-off doesn't look so harsh - but these players took 50% more shots than Henrik Sedin and were actually underperforming in the shooting department, unlike Henrik, who was vastly overperforming his career 13.1 shooting percentage. If we go back through NHL history, there are very few players who had a season like he just did: Craig Janney and Adam Oates are obvious comps, and Doug Gilmour and a late-model Wayne Gretzky also accomplished similar feats. So when we've got no one to compare him to, what do we do? 3-2-1 projections...
| G | A | P | Sh | Sh% | |
| 2007-08 | 15 | 61 | 76 | 141 | 10.6 |
| 2008-09 | 22 | 60 | 82 | 143 | 15.4 |
| 2009-10 | 29 | 83 | 112 | 166 | 17.5 |
| 2010-11 | 24 | 72 | 96 | 154 | 15.8 |
All this is is an average of Sedin's last three seasons, weighted 3-2-1. And since he's turning 30, the projection should probably be slightly more pessimistic. If you're picking Henrik Sedin in a hockey pool, reasonable expectations put him a shade above 90 points. It's possible that he learned to shoot and became a more efficient playmaker at age 29...But it's highly unlikely.
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Fantasy...
I dealt both the twins in my dynasty league for a significant return of picks, prospects, a young unproven goalie (Letohnen), Jamie Benn, and Corey Perry. I dealt them because I thought Henrik was over-performing (and I needed to rebuild anyways). Let’s hope we’re both right.
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One thing that’s important for these projections is the different roles the Sedins can play. Two years ago they weren’t being gifted offensive opportunities (ZoneStarts; Comp.; plain-old EV ice time) like they were last year. With Malhotra and Kesler anchoring things behind them, and with how Vigneault’s strategy worked a year ago, I think it’s likely that we see another year of extreme sheltering for the Sedins, which should mean another season of great offensive results (say something between 90 and 120 points). But if Vigneault moves away from that strategy (if, say, Malhotra and Kesler get injured), they could fall quite a bit harder.
Sort of what I was thinking, but wasn’t sure if the stats backed up that sense. In fact, IIRC, it was when Sundin came in that Kesler’s role was expanded from strictly checking. It would be interesting to do look at the competition stuff pre- and post-Sundin. That’s at least when Burrows suddenly saw a dramatic increase in his scoring, playing alongside them. And Vigneault probably realized then what he could do with Kesler.
This is the storyline I’m most interested in for the coming season. I have this notion, and I think it wouldn’t necessarily be an awful idea, that AV is just going to fucking abuse Manny Malhotra in terms of ZStart, and continue abusing Kesler in terms of like everything, all in an effort to have the twins get a Pat Kane level of offensive zone time.
by Passive Voice on Sep 2, 2010 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you’re probably right. Manny Malhotra will likely anchor a much more successful version of Johnson’s line from a year ago, which should help both Kesler and the Sedins.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 2, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
The one variable which has (as far as I know) no historical antecedents is the absence of his brother for a quarter of the season. The presumption is that Henrik is better when Daniel is around, and Daniel had a career year despite missing 21 games (and scored on a 110 point pace).
So, if they’re both healthy all year, it seems probable that they’ll each at least break 100 points.
Prior to last year, their career high (combined) was 165 points. 200+ points is very optimistic regardless of how fluffy their ice time is.
Let’s move this conversation back a year. What would you have said about the Sedins on September 1, 2009?
Why would we have had this conversation about the Sedins a year ago? Last year, Malkin led the league with 113 points, so we probably would have been talking about him. And he missed some games this year, but was on a 94 point pace.
There are very few incredible players, but there are lots of very good players, and some of them have incredible years. The body of evidence we have suggests that Henrik is a very good player who had an incredible year.
My point is that we wouldn’t have predicted Sedin’s incredible year last year. But, in any case, we’ll see if the data bears out this season.
i dunno if it’s that simple. imo, right up there with Dank for “most important (non-hank) person to hank’s production” is kes. like scott said, if Kes goes down, Hank has to start taking on all sorts of non-point-scoring icetime (though with malhotra here, the effects of a kes injury would be somewhat lessened this year).
all of which is to say that i’d change your conclusion to “if Hank, Dank, Kes, and Malhotra are all healthy, and AV takes his role segregation to Tampa levels, it seems probable that they’ll each at least break 100.”
by Passive Voice on Sep 2, 2010 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I put 80-90. You can’t fully account for injuries, illness and the like, so I’m going a little conservative. Just a hair above a point per game pace seems logical.
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Did you account for health at all in the analysis of the similar players? Sedin has been incredibly durable over his career – missing only 10 games in 9 seasons.
Obviously, there are two parts to the total points scored – games played and points per game. When looking at the comps, it may be most informative to look at the points per game they got the following year and then using Sedin’s health history to project his games played. Since you can assume that Sedin would project to 82 games played, which is at least as high as what the similar players project to, this would likely raise Sedin’s predicted points somewhat (I’d still expect a drop-off though).
I don’t know… I don’t think Henrik Sedin is somehow immune to the random injury his brother got last year, for example, just because he has avoided such a fate in his 9 seasons to date. Almost no one goes through a NHL career without a major injury at some point. Is it more likely to happen now? I guess he’s getting older, but I can never assume a player will play 82 games. It’s just not the most likely outcome for any player.
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Cheap Plug
Hope you don’t mind but here’s a plug for my analysis of this on Puck Prospectus a few weeks ago.
Howe and Why: Henrik Sedin Won’t Score 100 Points
Oates and Gilmour found themselves in similar situations and dropped off. Vukota also has him dropping off. I voted 80-90 but if he played the full 82 (like he always does) he’ll probably crack 90.
You people are all crazy. I just read on the Bleacher Report he’s good for a solid 115 points.
/Sips the koolaid, mumbles incoherently
(I think 90-100 is spot on, maybe a bit more if the team – that first line in particular – finds the same bounces it did last year)
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Even if he scores 95 (my midpoint prediction given his likely role plus having a built-in good linemate in Daniel) are we still going to be talking about him like he’s any better than he was in 07/08 and 08/09?
Please. He’s the same damn player, a bona fide impact player at EV and on the PP. Have never checked but players of this variety usually give their teams a quarter goal a game, right Gabe? A fine player, but there are better.
Points annoy me. I’m sure if they weren’t tracked the conversation would move forward (likely due to the mouth-breathers dropping out of it entirely)
Gabe, I think you just got called a mouth-breather. What do you think you’re doing tracking points?
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by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 2, 2010 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Gabe, I think you just got called a mouth-breather
Yeah Bruce. That’s was exactly my intent.
by R O on Sep 2, 2010 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m just baiting my ‘fans’ in Vancouver. I did a radio interview with a guy in Ottawa today and I put this together so we could talk about it.
Hey, I’m a genuine fan! I regress to the mean everyday, and religiously read this blog at work.
I agree with the consensus on this site. The brothers are very good players who had a great season, where everything broke in their favor (except that injury). If they were used in the same role they were used in 07-08, we’d expect (as we have learned on this site) a regression to the mean. But if Scott is right, there role has changed somewhat, and their icetime is cushier. I guess the real question was there any appreciable increase in scoring chances and corsi advantage per 60 between 07-08 and 09-10 (the reason that I leave out 08-09 is that halfway through, there was a change in their use, I suspect when Sundin came aboard).
I'm tempering my expectations
As a Canucks fan, I would love to see the Sedins continue at the absurd pace they did last season and I do think they’re capable of it. Realistically, I’m hoping for 90+ points from each of them. It will be interesting to see how their competitive nature plays into it, however, as the gauntlet has been thrown to Daniel to see if he can match his brother’s season.
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more points not less
Do you think the Canucks PP will be vastly improved this year with the additions of DanHam and KBall? Would you agree an extra 25 PP goals (or more) is a reasonable expectation over last season?
who gets the prime PP minutes?
and a more offensively capable defensive corps should mean an overall improvement to the #2 scoring team
I say Hank gets a minimum 115 points and quite possibly it is Danny that leads the team this year. they are notoriously competitive. Danny wants a Hart of his own. maybe he settles for a Conne Smythe?
Why don’t you go right on ahead and bet your house and life savings on that.
by R O on Sep 2, 2010 8:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
If Vancouver scored 25 more PP goals, they’d have a 28.6% PP efficiency. That’s the highest figure since we started recording data in 1987. Absolutely no way do I believe that an extra 25 PP goals is a reasonable expectation.
Why does Hamhuis and Ballard translate to 20 more goals? They’re not replacing Ehrhoff and Edler, so it must be Bieska/Salo, no?
Over the last 3 years:
Hamhuis: 314 minutes, 16 power play points (3.05 p/60), 25GFON
Ballard: 405 minutes, 18 PPP (2.66 p/60), 35GFON
Bieska: 547 minutes, 31 PPP (3.396 p/60), 56 GFON
Salo: 554 minutes, 30 PPP (3.244 p/60), 54 GFON
So you’d be substituting in less production per 60, not more.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 2, 2010 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
why stop at 115, dude. i really see no reason why hank can’t top 150. it’ll be magical.
by Passive Voice on Sep 3, 2010 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
wait
I guess we will have to wait and see. I appreciate the usefulness of stats but consider that both hamhuis and ballard were on less talented teams. would salo or bieksa have the same numbers on any other team? I am sure you can tear apart any numbers i give you so I will not ever bother.
I do believe both Sedins totals will be the same or higher, and the Canucks as a whole, pp included to produce more than last year
You do realize that
a) prime offensive scoring age is during RFA years, which the Sedins are past
b) Henrik had a high shooting percentage which we have zero reason to expect to continue
c) 115 points would be the most since 2007 Crosby 120, and
d) when players broke 115 post-lockout they needed lots of power plays and a big share of total power play time
Right?
by red army line on Sep 3, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
How badly do you believe that?
If you have an idea of how many goals for and against the Canucks will have, you can probably use that to make a prediction of just how many goals Vancouver will win the Cup by.
Then, you can bet all you own on that, and hopefully that’ll be the end of posts from you!
Win, win, win
by R O on Sep 3, 2010 11:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I do
I can tell when Im not welcome
I thought I would add my opinion. This was actually my first post on any SB site, after being an avid reader and ‘lurker’ for some time
not that it should matter. I appreciate anyone disagreeing, and Im not crap talking anyone or any other team. I was wrong to think you might want some input from a Vancouver fan, get a differing opinion, right or wrong
message received loud and clear
good luck all
You are welcome. You just need to make sure your expectations are tempered. If you believe that everything will go right for the Sedins again, then fine. Believe what you will. But make sure you know that it’s very unlikely.
by red army line on Sep 5, 2010 5:27 AM EDT up reply actions
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