More on Goal-Scoring and True Talent

I thought I'd take a look at some of the quantities surrounding even-strength goal-scoring.  Again, I'm looking at the persistence of each of these rates in even and odd games, just for initial shots (no rebounds.)

 

Talent Regression to Mean R^2
Goals/GP 28% 51%
Shots/GP 1% 98%
Shot Location 11% 82%
Shooting % 74% 9%

 

So players quite clearly control the volume of shots they generate and the locations they take the shots from.  But actually putting the puck in the net is a very transient talent, so the number of goals a player scores is, as you might imagine, not exactly deterministic.

If we combine shot volume with the previous analysis I did of shooting percentage and shot location, we get the following breakdown of true and transient talent:

 

Percent Type
Shots/GP 39 Talent
Shot Location 14.5 Talent
Shot Location 2 Transient
Shooting % 11.5 Talent
Shooting % 33 Transient

 

A player's goal-scoring rate - on a per-game basis - is about 65% driven by his true talents - whether he's a shooter, where he shoots from, and his ability to pick corners from a given spot on the ice over and above other players.  The other 33% is shooters making their shots or whatever you want to call it.  Again, this analysis is restricted to initial shots at even-strength - if we included rebounds, then you'd see that goal-scoring was even more of a talent, and if we further include power-play goals, you'd see that goal-scoring was even more talent-driven (or driven by a coach's decisions regarding PP time.)

I think (hope) this resolves some of the confusion around the notion of shooting being luck-driven.  On a given shot, from a given spot, luck rules.  But when we look at the sum total of a player's skills to figure out how many goals he's going to score, true skills dominate.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker