Are Expensive Goaltenders worth the Money?
by Hawerchuk on Mar 8, 2010 9:00 AM EST
Email
PrintOne of the recurring topics over at Tyler Dellow's site is goaltending. Tyler has some great analysis over the years - he showed the extent to which past save percentage predicts future save percentage - and had the right take on the Nikolai Khabibulin signing. Somewhat tangential to the Khabibulin discussion was his recent post on high-priced, long-term goalie contracts even to younger goaltenders. Tyler's philosophy:
"If I were making decisions for an NHL team, I might lose the odd guy who really is that good to free agency but I think I’d be far less likely to end up paying a guy $3MM or $4MM+ to sit on the bench. In a league that right now has more competent goalies than it does starting jobs for them, with only a few true elites, making a mistake on a goalie really puts you behind the rest of the league, in terms of the salary that’s committed to someone who isn’t performing."
There are essentially 20 NHL goalies signed to multi-year, high-cost contracts, and 42 goalies age 24 or older who have no such contracts. The top 20 goalies have posted a .924 save percentage this season; the other 42 have a .918 save percentage. Over the course of 53 games, that translates to roughly a six-goal difference between the average goalie in each group. That six-goal difference costs an additional $4.1 million per goaltender, which doesn't compare favorably to the general market for wins:
| Cost/Win | |
| UFA | 2.23M |
| RFA | 1.33M |
| Entry | 0.65M |
| "Top" goalies | 4.1M |
These are ballpark figures, but I think it's clear that dropping $3M+ for multiple years on a goalie has not had a good rate of return in recent years. For a variety of reasons - chief among them the short career peaks of goalies and the difficulty teams have in determining a goalie's true talent level - these contracts underperform. Buying a top goalie is like giving away between half a win and a full win per season. If your team has a league-average goalie signed to a bargain contract today, you'd better hope they don't decide they need to sign Evgeni Nabokov in the off-season.
22 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Well it's not like we've given our goalie 3.5 M per year for 15 years.......
Oh wait.
-Sad Isles Fan.
Leighton
2.73 GAA and a .908 save percentage.
or Boucher who has a 2.89 GAA and a .895 save percentage.
they’re not studs, but they’re getting the job done.
Exactly. Here’s a novel idea: draft and develop goaltenders. Occasionally call them up from the AHL.
Everybody wants a Brodeur or a Roy, but the Canadiens and Devils didn’t get them because they were signed for $8 million per…
Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 8, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
I agree, and yet I disagree. On the one hand, you have to be crazy to sign Cam Ward to a 6 year $37.8m contract. On the other hand, if the Blues had Tomas Vokoun instead of Chris Mason, in Mason’s 48 games they presumably would have given up 57 even strength goals instead of 82. Is that worth the salary difference? I think so.
Also, i stumbled upon this the other day. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/allen/2006-12-07-free-agent-goalies_x.htm
My favorite part: " One wild card in the goalie maneuvering is San Jose’s Evgeni Nabokov who is far from being a free agent. After this season, he has three years left with a salary cap hit of $5.3 million. Right now, he’s splitting duties with Vesa Toskala who is earning $4 million less than Nabokov. Certainly there is incentive to deal Nabokov, since Toskala seems like he’s establishing himself as a premium netminder."
by DoctorMyBrainHurts on Mar 9, 2010 12:27 AM EST reply actions
You’re thinking about it wrong. Chris Mason (.913 svpct since lockout) is overpaid at $3M. Tomas Vokoun (.923 svpct since lockout) is obviously way underpaid, but you picked him instead of Tim Thomas ($5M), Marty Turco ($5.7M) and Cristobal Huet ($5.6M), who are just as indicative of what happens when you spend big money. And Craig Anderson ($1.8M) shows what can happen when you look for a bargain.
Toskala?
PREMIUM netminder? Is someone completely out of their mind? We’re talking Vesa “way below .900 save percent” Toskala, right? Mr. lets-in-shots-from-opposing-GOAL-LINE? Vesa “let-me-take-this-harmless-unscreened-dump-in-from-the-blue-line-and-redirect-it-into-my-own-net” Toskala?
If you think he’s worth an NHL salary now, I’t like to introduce you to my grandmother, she could use the work.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/allen/2006-12-07-free-agent-goalies_x.htm
ARticle is from 2007.
Cheers, Complaints, homerism and bashing of mediocre pop musicians in 140 Characters
"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding
by Kevin Sellathamby on Mar 14, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Hindsight’s clearly 20/20. At the time, I don’t think anybody would’ve disagreed with that statement. Toskala was playing well splitting time with Nabokov, and from what I can remember actually stepped in and almost won a series on his own in the playoffs.
Then, of course, JFJ bought high. And the rest, as they say, is history.
Now, could any of us have foreseen he would become Toskalol? No. But then again none of us get paid the big bucks to be a scout. Or the GM. Or…a beat reporter with USA Today apparently.
Professional cusser causer.
by T is for Truculence on Mar 16, 2010 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Playoffs?
Is it fair to discuss a goalies value without mentioning playoffs? I realize smaller sample-set and more variance but the expensive goalies typically get paid for playoff success which has value.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
