Phil Birnbaum on the Dangers of Regression

Phil highlights some of the mistakes you can easily make if you use regression blindly:

Link

Regression can really lead you astray - for example, this paper, of which I'm one of the co-authors (for contributing fielding analysis, not for the regression.)  The regression result is quite unintuitive and counter to what everyone else has found. 

Regression lends an aura of "correctness" to a study - you can say "controlling for parental income and education, we found that the number of ice cream cones eaten as a child explains 93% of the variation in career earnings" - but it doesn't mean that you found the right answer, or even, as Phil shows with triples in baseball, that you get the correct sign on your coefficients.  (Perhaps the most egregious error of this sort was in the famous "Beer Makes you Smart" study.)

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker