The calendar has flipped over to the month of October and for hockey fans that means that the start of the National Hockey League’s regular season is just around the corner. For our Winnipeg Jets, it is a mere 8 days until they kick off their year against the Edmonton Oilers. That means that it is time to take a look at what the 2024-25 campaign may have in store for our beloved franchise.
Scott Arniel and Winnipeg’s coaching staff have had two-thirds of training camp to figure out what the Jets’ opening day roster will look like, so that makes me believe they will have a pretty good idea on which players will fill the 22 or 23 spots on Oct 9th. And since I am confident (arrogant? delusional?) enough in my hockey knowledge, that belief has led me to try and answer some questions I get when people find out that I write about the Winnipeg Jets. Lets start off with the two most common inquiries I hear….
Will Brad Lambert make the NHL this year?
Well, that kind of depends on your definition of “making the NHL“. If making the NHL means that Brad Lambert will be in the Winnipeg Jets opening day line up, then probably no. However, if it means that the 20 yr old gets into a significant amount of big league contests in 2024-25, then yes.
The speedy center may have to wait for an injury to occur to a player in the Jets’ top six before he gets recalled from the Manitoba Moose. The reason I say that is I am not sure Lambert is a great fit for the right wing spot on the Lowry line, so the only option outside the top six would be on the 4th. In my mind, playing double the minutes in the AHL is more impactful to a young high-end prospects’ development than getting 10 minutes of grind shifts in the NHL. So, while the 6′ forward can bring more to the table offensively when compared to 4th liners like Rasmus Kupari & David Gustafsson, playing with the Manitoba Moose might be the right decision if Winnipeg is unwilling to give Lambert the reins to the 2nd line center spot right off the bat.
But don’t let that depress you because it took only 3 games last season for the Jets’ top six to take a hit…with Gabriel Vilardi suffering a knee injury in a match against his former squad, the Los Angeles Kings. Winnipeg has a lot of players that are either smallish in stature or with an injury history at the top of their lineup, such as Nikolaj Ehlers, Cole Perfetti, & Kyle Connor. Unfortunately that means there will likely be opportunities for Lambert to fill in throughout the season and if the Finn plays well enough, the coaches will have a hard time sending him down.
Another wildcard in the Lambo situation is the contract status of Ehlers…the closer the speedy Dane comes to potentially walking away in free agency, the more likely General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff considers moving the winger to another NHL franchise in order to recoup some assets. If Winnipeg does end up moving on from Nikolaj during the season, Lambert is certainly the most probable internal replacement. Personally, I don’t think Chevy will let Ehlers go and still have hope that there will be a new contract announcement prior to the start of the season.
The decision between Lambert and Vladislav Namestnikov for the 2nd center position is an interesting one. Namestnikov is coming off his second best NHL season (37 pts in 78 gms) with very good advanced numbers (58.4 Goals For % and positive ratings in Dangerous Fenwick For % & Corsi For Percentage). Described as a Swiss Army knife by his former coach Rick Bowness, the 31 yr old has the talent to play up & down the lineup. However, his career-high NHL total of 44 pts in a season does show the limit of just how high the Russian can play and still be effective. Vladdy is not great at the face-off dot, but does play a responsible defensive game and chip in offensively. Namestnikov has the hockey IQ to not look out of place when he is playing with high-end linemates, but to consider him a permanent solution this year for the 2C spot is overly optimistic.
Lambert had up & down performances in the pre-season at the dot and will likely be on the losing end more often than not against NHL talent. The Finn’s need to bulk up was also apparent during board battles during his 3 appearances in September with Winnipeg. However, his ability to carry the puck through the neutral zone and gain the offensive zone is a talent the Jets lack at the forward position beyond Ehlers. The 20 yr old has oodles of scoring talent and his play has the ability to make his linemates better. Not to mention the fact that Winnipeg’s 2nd powerplay unit would be much more dangerous with Lambert on the ice.
Possibly because of my subscription to FloHockey to watch the Manitoba Moose play this season, but I won’t be hugely upset if Brad Lambert doesn’t make the Winnipeg Jets right out of the gate. Should make Manitoba quite fun to watch. I am sort of expecting something similar to what occurred with Connor in 2017-18, though it may take Lambert a bit longer than the 4 AHL contests KFC suited up for the Moose before permanently becoming a Jet.
Will the Winnipeg Jets make the playoffs?
Ahhh….the big question. Before I get around to specifically talking about the Jets, I thought I would point out a recent trend in the NHL. It has become much more difficult for non-playoff teams to qualify for the post-season in the following year. Going back just 6 to 8 seasons to the 2016/17 to 2018/19 campaigns, there was a 40% turnover of the 16 playoff squads each season, but over the past three years (2021/22 to 2023/24) that number has plummeted to just 25%. That is the difference between 6 new franchises making a playoff appearance compared to just 4 teams in recent seasons. In fact, a mere three new squads qualified for the “second season” in 2023-24. The graphic below indicates the franchises who were new to post-season in the above mentioned spans.
That trend is not the only thing hurting the NHL’s claim of being the professional league with the most parity between its 32 franchises. There has also been a decrease in the occurrence of NHL teams making a dramatic improvement from season to season. In the three season period of 2016/17 to 2018/19, five squads (WPG, CGY, TB, VEG, & NYI) went from missing the playoffs to finishing the following year in the top 5. One example was the Winnipeg Jets going from earning the 2nd overall draft selection in 2016 to finishing with the 2nd best record the following season. However in the same span from 2021/22 to 2023/24, only two squads managed that same top 5 feat (VEG/NJ in 22/23).
Therefore, if the current pattern continues only 3 or 4 of the 16 franchises who qualified for the post-season last year will miss out in 2024-25. Will the Winnipeg Jets be one of them? Who are the other NHL teams to potentially fall out? Which of the non-playoff squads have the talent to break through?
To try and determine those things, lets start by taking a deeper dive into the Winnipeg Jets roster. From what I’ve seen, I don’t think there will be much change from the franchise’s 2023-24 lineup. In fact, I fully expect Winnipeg’s staff to ice the exact same forward line up from last season’s opener, with the only changes coming to fill in for the departed Brenden Dillon, Nate Schmidt, & Laurent Brossoit. Yes, the team also lost in-season additions Sean Monahan & Tyler Toffoli, but they weren’t involved until much later in the campaign. While my expected lineup for the Winnipeg Jets below does have 3 unfilled spots, two of those would have been held by the injured Ville Heinola & Logan Stanley.
I know there will be tons of concertation about the lineup above, but I am willing to give Arniel the benefit of the doubt for the time being. A new coach going with the conservative option by not trying anything new to start off the season is understandable, in my mind. The real judgement will come in how Winnipeg’s new bench boss reacts to how the season unfolds. If the new Advanced Stats department keeps telling him that the top forward unit is not performing well, does he stubbornly hold his ground as we have seen in the past with Paul Maurice & Bowness? I am a bit more flummoxed by the signs that Kupari has the inside lane to the 4th line center position. While the Finn’s speed does get him into good scoring positions from time to time, his lack of finish and questionable decision making make me wonder why that is. The only thing I could come up is that Arniel is giving him a full runway to show off what he has to help Winnipeg’s staff decide whether the team should stick with the 24 yr old or cut bait by moving him to another franchise.
If you looked back to the Jets team that debuted against the Calgary Flames last year, you would notice that 17 of 19 starting spots will likely remain the same. Colin Miller will be one of the new defensemen donning a Winnipeg jersey when they face-off against the Oilers on Oct 9th, but it isn’t exactly clear who will fill the final defensive slot. To replace Heinola & Stanley while they are on the mend, the coaching staff will be keeping two of Haydn Fleury, Elias Salomonsson, Dylan Coghlan, & Simon Lundmark on the NHL roster to start the campaign. Personally, I am leaning towards it being Fleury & Salomonsson who will end up covering for the injuries and will give the 20 yr old Swede the edge to play against Edmonton. When it comes to the backup job, I really have no clue who will end up watching Connor Hellebuyck play 60+ games. Kaapo Kahkonen started off his Winnipeg career horribly, but bounced back admirably in his 2nd exhibition contest. Eric Comrie played well in his start and made some really big saves, but I still tend to see him as a mentor for the young tenders in the Jets’ system (Milic/DiVincentiis). So I guess I’m leaning towards the 28 yr old Finn getting the early opportunity to play behind Bucky.
The Winnipeg Jets do have the players to be a top 10 defensive team again in 2024-25….though not sure they will be repeating as the best defensive squad in the NHL. The loss of Dillon’s style of play will be difficult to overcome and put more pressure on those Jets that are willing to get involved in the physical stuff…which may only include Adam Lowry as a guy able to drop the gloves with any level of confidence.
With no changes up front, goals should be hard to come by again for a squad that finished with the 15th highest goals for. Improved special teams could help Winnipeg deal with taking a small step back defensively and a middle of the road offense, so new assistant coaches Dean Chynoweth & Davis Payne have their work cut out for them. Chynoweth has promised more movement when the Jets have a man-advantage, which is music to fans who have long been frustrated with Winnipeg’s static powerplay. The Jets had the worst PP% of playoff teams during the regular season and only 10 franchises had a lower rating than Winnipeg’s 18.8%…so lots of room for improvement and hopefully Ehlers’ promotion to the top unit will help with that. Payne has also said things that fans have long wanted to see when the squad was down a man or two….he wants the killers to be more aggressive. The new coach has also talked about including skilled players like Connor and Mark Scheifele to help last season’s 11th worst penalty killers.
Health will be key for the Jets in 2024-25….the top 6 forwards, top 4 defensemen, & Hellebuyck especially. Since that is in Fate’s hands, lets move onto looking at who the Winnipeg Jets could expect growth from this season. I think Vilardi is certainly in that category, since his first year in Manitoba didn’t go great due to a fairly severe knee injury disrupting things. The 25 yr old has sick hands and I don’t think a 30 to 35 goal season is out of the question if Gabe can stay in the lineup for all 82 matches. A player that the team is really relying on to take a step up is defenseman Dylan Samberg. The 25 yr old American has proven that he can handle 3rd pairing duties at the NHL level, but can he find a way to make a pairing with Neal Pionk work well enough to keep opponents at bay. If 23 yr old Heinola can bounce back quickly from his ankle infection, I think he is another Jets player who could surprise people. The most obvious choice is 22 yr old Cole Perfetti…who is at that age where prospects often take a big leap forward in their game. The Canadian has bulked up in preparation for the increased role promised by Arniel over the summer and has the talent to flirt with the 60 pt range if he is given the opportunity. From their usage during the pre-season, I think the coaching staff is also hoping for improvements from 24 yr old Kupari and 26 yr old Stanley, but I am not sure how much more space those players have to grow.
Two other potentially positive factors for Winnipeg this season could come from Ehlers being given an expanded role for the Jets and the addition of a howitzer on the 2nd PP unit in the form of Miller. The right handed defenseman was in the top 5 in the NHL last year in highest in-game shot speed and average shot speed and already proved to be a weapon on the powerplay in the pre-season. The speedy Ehlers should reward his coaches for giving him more ice-time by setting a career-high in points by eclipsing the 70 point plateau. Other than that, there are a handful of Manitoba Moose players who could positively impact the Winnipeg Jets’ 2024-25 campaign. The most obvious is Lambert, who we’ve already fully discussed, so lets move onto a player who has surprised some of the coaching staff with his calm play during the squad’s exhibition games. From the way Arniel has praised Salomonsson to the press, you have to think the 20 yr old might have been in the running for an NHL spot even if Heinola/Stanley didn’t go down with injuries. Now he might have the chance to start the season with Winnipeg and then it would be up to the Swede to force the coaches to keep him there. Another fairly obvious player is fiesty Nikita Chibrikov, who has already endeared himself to Jets’ fans with his passing & goal scoring abilities. A big bonus for the Russian over Lambert is that his style of play is suited for time in the top & bottom sixes, giving Nikita more chances to be called up as an injury replacement. While I think center Chaz Lucius has the talent to play in the NHL, his injury history will likely make the priority to make it through an entire AHL campaign with Manitoba before Winnipeg considers calling him up. Last, but certainly not least, is someone very few people are talking about. Thomas Milic excelled at both the ECHL & AHL levels last year and seems set to be the starter for the Moose out of the gate. However, should Kahkonen & Comrie struggle at whatever level they end up playing, the most logical next option is to see if Milic can play at an above average rate at the game’s highest level.
After all that, we should have a pretty good idea of what the Winnipeg Jets will have to work with this season. Just like last year, I believe our squad could finish as high as the top 5 in the NHL, but also as low as the 10th worst franchise. If the players buy in totally to the Bowness-Arniel defensive system, they should be very annoying to opposing teams. When you combine that with the level of play Hellebuyck regularly provides in the regular season, the Jets should have a chance to win the majority of contests. However, should a few players not fully commit and the team runs into a string of bad luck, the season could get away from Winnipeg and a post-season appearance might be too much to ask. I personally believe it will be somewhere in the middle there (12th overall), but there is still the chance that us fans will have to go through the angst of a wildcard race.
When I look around the NHL to see which playoff spots may change hands in 2024-25, here is how I ordered franchises that have a chance to go from a playoff team to a non-playoff team or vice versa.
The Eastern Conference appears to have the highest chance for movement, with even the Tampa Bay Lightning a possibility to lose a wildcard race this year. Since only the West matters when it comes to the Winnipeg Jets’ playoff aspirations, the Vancouver Canucks did lose a key player in Elias Lindholm and were a brand new playoff team last season. So could they take a big step back (finished with 6th best record in 23-24)? The Los Angeles Kings have qualified for the post-season for three straight years, but will an injury to Drew Doughty open them up to a fall from grace? The Winnipeg Jets lost some players and the media fully expect them to take a step back, but those same people didn’t think much of the squad at the start of last season either. I will fully admit that Manitoba’s team did overperform to finish among the NHL’s best regular season teams, so I do expect a slight regression. I don’t really see a clear reason why that would take them completely out of contention, but it certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility. I can see all of the St. Louis Blues, Seattle Kraken, and Utah Unknowns taking a step forward, but will it be big enough to steal a post-season spot? Both Seattle and Utah made splashes over the summers (Stevenson & Montour for the Kraken and Sergachev & Marino for the unnamed franchise), so both have aims to be in the NHL’s top 16. St. Louis narrowly missed out on last year’s Cup chase, but I have no clue whether they will rise or plummet from there.
Should the worst come to fruition and our Jets don’t qualify, I won’t be overly depressed as I would expect a quick return to the Stanley Cup playoffs the following season. Winnipeg already has a bunch of young prospects on the verge of becoming NHLers (Brayden Yager, Colby Barlow, Lambert, Salomonsson, Lucius, Chibrikov, etc) so adding more quality with a higher than expected draft pick won’t be the end of the world. To be honest, I am probably looking forward to next year’s version of the Jets more than I am for the upcoming season, so I really want to see the coaching staff and some of the players show positive signs for the future.
As things stand, the Winnipeg Jets are set to be one of the NHL’s younger squads so I expect there to be rough patches throughout the campaign. However, I have faith that the talent management has assembled for the 2024-25 season is capable of making the playoffs for the 3rd straight season. Whether they can make some noise once they get to the dance?? Well, that is another story. The good news for Winnipeg is that the season starts off fairly easily, with only two playoff teams (EDM/TOR) in the first 10 contests. A good beginning often leads to a good ending….let’s hope that is the case for the Jets.
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