Winnipeg Jets: Playoff Post-Mortem – Pt 2

A couple of days ago, donning the guise of Dr. BigOl’JetAirliner I published the first part of my look at the Winnipeg Jets’ playoff run in the 2024-25 National Hockey League season with the goal of identifying the causes for our club’s early exit.

In Part One of the post-mortem, I looked back at the history of the Atlanta Thrasher-Winnipeg Jets’ franchise before diving in to an in-depth review of the Round 1 series versus the St. Louis Blues. If you missed that one, please check it out on the link below, otherwise skip on to the start of Part Two, where I will check out the True Northers’ performance in Round 2 against the Dallas Stars before attempting to identify the ultimate causes for our squad’s early elimination.

Before we dive into the second round battle between the Jets & Stars, I thought I would briefly recap where Winnipeg’s team health stood at the conclusion of their series with the Blues. After captain Adam Lowry’s overtime winner in Game 7, the Jets head coach Scott Arniel had every player available for the upcoming series except Josh Morrissey, who was banged up in the final contest versus St. Louis and ended up missing Game 1 versus Dallas.

In terms of performance, the True Northers were mostly playing okay overall…..though there were a few problems areas that were identified:

1. Connor Hellebuyck had an awful opening round (.826 save %/-9.09 GSAE) and was the biggest reason for the Jets’ struggles in Round 1.
2. Winnipeg’s skaters were losing the scoring battle (20 to 13) when the teams were playing at 5 on 5 and that was due to the combined effect of usually losing the expected goals race against the Blues and having the Jets’ shooters being less effective than they were in the regular season.
3. The final weakness was the club’s play when they were short-handed against St. Louis, which increased the rate that Winnipeg gave up SH goals from 1 every 2 games to almost a PP goal against every outing.

Winnipeg Jets VS Dallas Stars:

The #1 ranked Winnipeg Jets eked their way into the second round of the post-season with a Game 7 win, but so did their opponents as the Dallas Stars needed the maximum contests to defeat the Colorado Avalanche before moving onto Round 2. With only 10 points separating the franchises in the regular season, the Central Division rivals on paper should provide the audience with another tightly contested affair. And in the end that is exactly what happened, as this series easily could have gone to Game 7 with a different bounce or call on the ice here or there. Check out ESPN’s breakdown of how the games went below:

Perhaps the biggest game of the series between the Jets & Stars ended up being Game 1, when the hometown team allowed Dallas’ Mikko Rantanen to steal the game with a natural hat trick in an 8 minute span. The expected goals in the match were pretty much even and if Bucky could have made just one more stop, who knows how the rest of the Round 2 would have played out. Winnipeg’s familiar pattern of winning at home and losing on the road played out for the rest of the series, thus giving Dallas the chance to end the Manitobans’ season with an overtime heartbreaker in Game 6.

The Stars’ head coach Peter DeBoer ended up getting the better of his counterpart Scott Arniel, but I think the main advantage came from Dallas winning the special teams battles (5 to 3 in the PPG category). The Jets’ adversaries also took the opportunity to double-shift their most dangerous forwards (mainly Rantanen) and I think that helped the Stars over come Winnipeg’s depth at the forward position. Well, in the regular season the bottom six chipped enough offensively to give people that idea, but it didn’t come to pass since the Jets’ 4th line ended up being shut out in the second round.

Time for the people at MoneyPuck to provide us with some graphics to assist in our series review, outlining how the Expected Goals Differential (xG) looked for each game in all situations and at 5 on 5 in the two diagrams below.

Test Results: (all situations)

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The xG diagram for all situations starts off with that very close Game 1 sitting near the break-even plateau, but after that the Jets ended up winning 3 of the next four expected goals battles before the Stars dominated the offense in the final contest. Unlike the series versus St. Louis, Winnipeg was actually able to have more xG’s in one of the road games (Gm 4), but they also lost the xG race at home for the first time in that close opening match.

In Round 1, the Jets were the better team at creating scoring chances but our club was unable to carry over that advantage into the next series. Over the 6 matches, the squads did split the xG battles in all situations 3 to 3, yet it was Dallas that doubled up Winnipeg in dominating performances (2 to 1 in games that had a minimum of 1.25 xG advantage).

Test Results: (5 on 5)

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The 5 on 5 expected goals graph shows us that the True Northers’ ability to create offense was a real area of concern versus the Texas hockey club, only twice winning the xG battle and then only by less than 0.5 expected goals. When they were playing St. Louis, our hockey team ended up barely earning more xG’s at 5 on 5 than the Blues (1.92 xGF to 1.84 xGA), which were both decreases from Winnipeg’s regular season pace (2.15 xGF to 1.92 xGA). Well, when it came to the series versus Dallas, the Jets’ even strength play fell off a cliff as the Stars owned the battle (WPG 1.67 xGF to DAL 2.35 xGF). So while our team’s 5 on 5 play was only a minor weakness against the Blues, it bloomed into a full blown issue when it came to playing in Round 2.

Once again, our final “test result” is a breakdown of a bunch of statistical categories broken down in a per game format…..including Goals Scored (G), Shots Taken (SH), Expected Goals (xG), Even Strength Goals (ESG), Power Play Goals (PPG), and Save Percentage (Save%). The final column represents the goaltenders’ total Goals Saved Above Expected rating after the full series was completed.

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Starting off with the 1st column outlining the actual goals averaged per game by Winnipeg & Dallas, you might pick up that these numbers have decreased by quite a bit when compared to Round 1 (Jets had 3 GF & the Blues had 3.86). You might be trying to figure out why this happened when the True Northers were still allowing 23 shots against each contest and were actually allowing better/more scoring looks than their Round 1 opponents got (xG’s went up to 3.19/gm from 2.63).

Well the answer is good goalies. Connor Hellebuyck’s play in the opening series almost made him the sole reason for another disappointing Jets’ first round exit, but his teammates were able to pull the team out of the ashes at the last second to give Bucky a second chance in the post-season. And for the most part, he delivered much better performances…..yes, he still had one very bad game (.808 save % in a 5-2 loss), but Hellebuyck had three games worse than that in Round 1. He also had a pair of shutouts against Dallas and ended the series with a +5.45 Goals Saved Above Expected rating and a .910 save percentage. Yet it was the Stars’ Jake Oettinger that was the real star in the second round, putting up a very impressive .929 save % and a +4 GSAE rating versus the Jets to help Dallas move on to the Western Conference Finals.

The other columns to check out include one positive for Winnipeg when I picked up that the even strength defense reduced the goals against from 2.86 vs STL to a measly 1.33 per game vs DAL. But unfortunately that was the only good thing left for the Jets. Dallas stifled an already sputtering 5 on 5 offense from our club by reducing the Jets’ goals from 1.86/gm vs the Blues to only 1.50/gm against the Stars. Finally onto a look at the special teams, where the True Northers powerplay dropped well below their regular season average (.77 PPG/gm) and their Round 1 numbers (.72 PPG/gm) to end up with only .50 powerplay goals per game in the series (which is actually the same rate Winnipeg allowed opposing PP’s to score on them during the regular season). The Jets’ penalty killers were only slightly better than they were against the St. Louis Blues (0.86 to 0.83), yet were still well off their average from the regular season.

Round 2 Findings:

5 on 5 play…….The Winnipeg Jets actually ended up out-scoring the Dallas Stars 9 to 8 in Round 2 (despite MoneyPuck’s xG’s giving the Stars a 2.35/gm to 1.67/gm edge), which was a great improvement from the St. Louis Blues’ series (20 to 13). Adam Lowry’s line was the most consistent forward unit at producing offense in the series, winning the xG battle in 4 of 6 contests, while Mark Scheifele’s line only had over 50% of the xG’s on two occasions (both losses). The Jets’ 1st line had 4 even strength goals against Dallas, while the 2nd trio scored 2, the 3rd unit pocketed 3, and the 4th line couldn’t find the back of the net.

Nikolaj Ehlers really stepped up after returning from his injury, getting 7 points in 8 playoff games including 6 points in 6 games against the Stars. The speedy Dane scored 5 of Winnipeg’s 14 goals versus Dallas, a whopping 35.7% of his club’s offense. So much for the “Fly disappears in the post-season” narrative, eh? Another Jet player who had a decent Round 2 was third liner Nino Niederreiter, who ended up getting two of his line’s 3 goals in the series.

Connor Hellebuyck….played so much better than the opening round, but a couple fairly average games (especially the .875 save percentages in winnable 3-2 & 3-1 losses) still ended up hurting the Jets’ chances to move on in the playoffs. Partly because the tender couldn’t rely on his team’s offense to overcome any of his mistakes, which Winnipeg was often able to do during the regular season. In the end Bucky got out-played by his American counterpart (Oettinger), but a .910 save % and his first win in the Goals Saved Above Expected race in a series (a +5.45 to +4 advantage) could just be the start of Hellebuyck overcoming his playoff demons.

Despite almost holding Dallas to 2 goals per game in the series, Winnipeg’s defense did not play well in Round 2. On average, the Jets gave up a couple more medium to high danger scoring opportunities against the Stars every game and the top pairing of Josh Morrissey & Dylan DeMelo struggled to contain the elite players attacking against them. One bright shining star on the backend was reliable Dylan Samberg, who continued his fantastic regular season by clearly being the True Northers’ best defenseman in the post-season. Sammy ended up being on the winning end of the xG battle in 4 out of the 6 games and could be one of the most underrated/not-well-known defenders in the NHL as he enters a very important off-season that represents his last one as a restricted free agent.

Once again, Winnipeg’s special teams did the club no favours against Dallas, as they were unable to take advantage of Stars’ infractions and ended up pulling the puck out of the back of their net more often than not when they the officials sent a Jet player to the sin bin.

In the end, I would have to say that the Dallas Stars fully deserved to move onto the Western Conference Finals. However, unlike the opening round where it was the poor play of the Winnipeg Jets’ goalie that kept the series close, this was the opposite as Hellebuyck’s improved performance allowed the True Northers to make Round 2 look closer than the statistics say it was.

Official Causes of Death:

Okay, we have finally reached the time when Dr. BigOl’JetAirliner has to outline what exactly led to the early demise of the Winnipeg Jets’ 2024-25 season. If you read my long rambling articles, it probably is pretty clear what the key four areas are, but if you would like to rank them in order of importance, here is how I would do it:

1. 5 on 5 play…..an NHL’s team performance at even strength is the key statistic to look at if you are trying to judge their potential to make a long run in the playoffs. Based on Winnipeg’s regular season stats, they ended up being one of the league’s better clubs at scoring at 5 on 5…..however these numbers were propped up by strong play from the team’s goaltenders and better than expected scoring luck by the Jets’ shooters. Once those things couldn’t be consistently counted on in the post-season, the True Northers were fighting a losing battle. As Garret Hohl pointed out in his article on The Five Hohl, if Winnipeg had gone on to win the Stanley Cup this year, they would have had the 3rd worst regular season 5 vs 5 Offense Chance Generation rating off all the past winners since 2007. In other words…they were a long shot despite being crowned the Presidents Trophy winners.
2. Special Teams….The Jets led the NHL in powerplay success rate during the regular season, but once again that was mainly due to Winnipeg’s shooters scoring at a much higher rate than the numbers suggested they should. I thought that the return to the PP of key pieces like Gabriel Vilardi & Nikolaj Ehlers would spark a bit of a resurgence in the 2nd round, but the Jets luck with the man-advantage actually decreased. The penalty kill hovered around the middle of the pack during the regular season, but once Winnipeg only got to play against the top 50% of the league the short-handed units got exposed even more.
3. Goaltending…..I am a bit torn about where exactly to place Connor Hellebuyck on this list since he played so much better against the Dallas Stars. That being said, you cannot erase the horrendous stats Bucky put up against the St. Louis Blues, nor the fact that a couple more timely saves at key moments in the second round could have altered the momentum in the Jets’ favour. So, I definitely can’t exclude our tender from the list entirely and I do think this might be the best place to put the goaltending issues. To end on a bit of a positive, hopefully Hellebuyck can figure out his mental game for future playoffs because he should be able to build on his strong final two starts (one even on the road!!).
4. Secondary scoring….While the Stars only got one 4th line goal in the series, it ended up being a big one as Dallas’ Sam Steel tied up Game 6 and his club eventually won it in overtime. With Winnipeg getting absolutely no offense from their 4th line in the second round and most of that line’s goals against the Blues from depth players like David Gustafsson & Jaret Anderson-Dolan, the Jets’ depth scoring was not nearly good enough. A 2nd rounder at the deadline bought a bunch of bodychecks from Brandon Tanev, but absolutely no offense in 13 playoff contests. When you add the inconsistent impact of the True Northers’ 2nd line (especially prior to Ehlers’ return), it is unsurprising that our club was constantly in need of another goal or two.

Winnipeg’s Top Performers:

1. Kyle Connor: 17 pts in 13 gms for 1.31 pts/gm. +4 plus/minus rating & a 62.5% On Ice Goal Percentage.
2. Dylan Samberg: 3 assists in 13 games, but offense isn’t why Samberg is a great player. The big defenseman and his playing partner Neal Pionk ended the playoffs with a +1 plus/minus rating, which was the best for any of the Jets’ top 4 defenders. Sammie also had a 54.8% Expected Goals rating, which was good for 25th in the NHL for defensemen with over 30 minutes of post-season ice-time. Another sign of his defensive prowess, Winnipeg had 56% of the shots (Corsi) at even strength when the coach put him out on the ice, even though he was routinely matched up against the opposition’s best.
3. Mark Scheifele: 11 pts in 11 games for 1 pt/gm. Tied for team lead with a +5 plus/minus rating & the Jets got 68.2% of the goals when the top pivot was on the ice.
4. Nikolaj Ehlers: 7 pts in 8 games for .875 pts/gm. 2nd on the Winnipeg with a 69.2% On Ice Goal Percentage and tied Connor & Scheifele with 5 goals (in less games).
5. Nino Niederreiter: 6 pts in 13 gms for .460 pts/gm. Yet the Jets’ shutdown line had problems in the playoffs, allowing almost 70% of the goals when playing at 5 on 5.

Jets Needed More From These Players:

1. Connor Hellebuyck: Even with a slight uptick in his play near the end, Hellebuyck finished the playoffs holding the NHL’s worst Goals Saved Above Expected rating (-4.7) and the worst save percentage for goalies with more than 1 start (.866%). On the positive side, Bucky did end up with a pair of shut outs in Round 2, but even improved play couldn’t help him out of the basement for the majority of the tending stats.
2. Luke Schenn: Cracked ribs sustained early in the opening round may have played a role, but Schenn finished with a team worst -8 plus/minus rating in 11 games played. A 22.2% On Ice Goal Percentage rating was the 3rd worst on the Jets too.
3. Gabriel Vilardi: Possibly Vilardi never was completely healthy when he returned midway through the playoffs, but you have to expect a bit more offense than 4 pts in 9 games (.444 pts/gm). At least Gabe was able to have Winnipeg score 64.7% of the goals when he was on the ice.
4. Morgan Barron: The Bear bounced around the lineup, but never was able to have the impact he did late in the year. No goals and 2 assists and the 2nd worst plus/minus rating (-6) & On Ice Goal Percentage (21.4%) on the Winnipeg 4th line, you want more from one of the bigger bodies on the Jets’ roster.
5. Alex Iafallo: The veteran winger filled in admirably on the Jets’ top line at times during the season, but he really wasn’t able to make much of an impact in the playoffs when he filled in for Vilardi. An On Ice Goals Percentage of 38.1%, 2 pts in 13 games, and a -4 plus/minus rating left the fans wanting a bit more from Iafallo.
6. Cole Perfetti: Yes young Perfetti gave us one of the most memorable moments of the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean that everything was perfect for the young forward. His line was routinely out-muscled and that limited Fetts to 6 pts in 13 games for .462 pts/gm. A break even On Ice Goals Percentage wasn’t terrible, but the -4 plus/minus rating confirms that his impact on the scoresheet was mainly from the powerplay.

Well, if I haven’t lost you by this point….I will thank you for following along with my review of the Winnipeg Jets’ post-season. What needs to be done to improve things? That is something that I will try to cover in the upcoming weeks as the calendar inches towards the next Entry Draft and the beginning of the NHL’s free agency period.

As always, happy to hear your thoughts on the Jets play or any of the information contained in the article above. Enjoy the sunshine, but make sure you pop by Arctic Ice Hockey to see if I put up something new to read (or even to ensure that the site is still here). If this site does end up going dark, please know that we can all still get together at the Jets Hockey Forum to discuss whether we want to join that blog (some of us are already members) or make a plan to go somewhere else. Thank you all for the fun & frustrating times we shared cheering on our hockey club….the comradery helps ease the pain when the Jets fall short of our expectations.