I hope all the Arctic Ice Hockey members had a wonderful Christmas with their family and friends. It is great to put aside our hockey addictions for a small period and get to spend a bit more time with our loved ones. However, that break has passed now that the World Junior tournament kicked off on Boxing Day and the National Hockey League will be getting underway today. Fortunately, our Jets have one more day off so that gives us the time to discuss something else before Winnipeg is back on the ice.
Around this time last season, I ended up doing a deep dive article into the struggles of the Winnipeg Jets’ penalty killing. At the time of writing, the Jets’ short-handed unit was functioning at a measly 75% success rate and I tried to use the statistical evidence available to suggest potential areas to improve. While I very much doubt the coaching staff was reading my stuff, Winnipeg did find a way to finish the season stronger, improving the penalty kill by 2.1% over the rest of the season. However, it wasn’t until the past off-season that the franchise really addressed some of the key deficiencies. The arrival of new assistant coach Dean Chynoweth put a new person in charge of the PK and it looks like he has done his best to repair the special teams unit.
My biggest concerns last season were the lack of aggressiveness the Jets displayed in their own zone, the need to win more face-offs when down a man, and the fact that Winnipeg was never really dangerous to score a SH goal. Jump to this year and all of those things have been addressed….the coaches are encouraging more pressure on the puck carrier, the addition of Rasmus Kupari to the kill has helped at the dot, and putting Kyle Connor on the PK has made the Jets more of a threat to score when down a man. Kupari has been excellent on face-offs this season as his 52.4% success rate is the best of Winnipeg’s regular centers…but he is even better at 4 on 5 with an amazing 95.8% win rate. While adding Connor to the PK hasn’t resulted in the sniper pocketing a short-hander yet this year, the Jets do have 3 SHG so far which is good enough for a tie for 6th in the NHL.
So did all the changes actually result in an improvement? Well, in 2023-24, Winnipeg’s PK finished with a successful kill rate of 77.1% and the NHL’s 20th best penalty killers. In 2024-25, the Jets are sitting at 79.4% to give them the 17th best PK unit in the league at this point. Not exactly an epic improvement, but a 2.3% increase isn’t something to sneeze at. The loss of Dylan Samberg, the Jets’ best defensive defenseman, for 15 games has dulled the results somewhat and unfortunately our star goaltender’s playing style isn’t really built for PK success. Last year’s article pointed out that perennial Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck isn’t nearly as dominant when Winnipeg has a player in the penalty box and that trend has remained the same this season as Bucky is currently playing like a league average tender on the PK. While Hellebuyck’s +0.70 Goals Saved Above Expected on the penalty kill is good enough for 21st in the NHL for goalies with at least 10 starts, it pales in comparison to the league leading Juuse Saros’ +10.8 rating.
Well, since we are already here….we might as well continue our look at how the Winnipeg Jets’ season has gone. Lets start off with a comparison of how the True North franchise’s last two seasons matched up on their respective Dec 26th’s:
Before I get into discussing the contrasts between the two squads, I would like to point out the impact the NHL & NHLPA’s 4 Nations Face-Off tournament is having on NHL teams’ schedules. Many people suggest the impact is minimal because “it is just taking the place of the All-Star game“, but the real toll on Winnipeg is shown by having them play an extra 5 games over a 11 week period. For all you math fanatics, that is an increase from playing 40% of the available days up to 47%. Some may say that is only 7% more, but if you applied that increase to a standard 5 day work week…you would have to work an extra 25 days over an entire year. Anyone signing up??
Getting back to the stats, the Winnipeg Jets seem to be very much the same team as they were last season. Looking closer, the basic numbers above show that our squad has slightly improved in all areas, with their overall winning success rate going up from 69.4% to 70.8%, their goals scored increasing by 0.17 per game, and their goals against decreasing by 0.18.
Since the True North franchise didn’t make a lot of changes over the summer, I guess it would be reasonable to expect them to play a very similar style of game. However, there are differences between the two versions of the Jets and they become a bit more obvious when we take a deeper look at the stats. Here is how Winnipeg ranks in a bunch of categories at the holiday break:
A lot of great rankings in the above graphic, with the biggest improvements for the Jets coming in the Goals For (1st up from 15th in NHL) and Powerplay categories (1st from 23rd). With the help of Hellebuyck in net, Winnipeg has maintained a top 5 defensive ranking and the franchise’s +44 Goal Differential is well on the way to surpassing last season’s +60. Winnipeg is middle of the pack in a bunch of categories as well, like the Penalty Kill, Rebound Goals Scored, Blocks, & Expected Goal stats. Some of those rankings represent improvements (PK & BLKs), while the others are maintaining the status quo from last year.
Then there are some disappointments too, with two categories really jumping out to me. The first is in the body checking department, with Winnipeg dropping from the 17th most hits thrown to the 24th spot this season. It gets worse when you look at the receiving end, with the Jets going from the 13th most bodychecked franchise to the 2nd. The actual numbers don’t show much of an increase though, since the True Northers are only getting hit 0.4 more often per game. A bigger potential area of concern is in the goals allowed on rebounds region, because Winnipeg has already allowed 15 of those in 2024-25 (3rd worst) when they only allowed 29 all last season (tied for 9th best). That means the Jets are giving up rebound goals in 41.7% of their games this year, when they only allowed 35.4% last season. Possibly a result of the loss of Brenden Dillon to the New Jersey Devils in free agency, but the Samberg injury hasn’t helped.
The 24th overall ranking in the Corsi category is also not great, but not much a change from Winnipeg’s 21st overall finish last season. The majority of this group typically tries to wait for a better scoring opportunity before unleashing their shots, so that is unlikely to change much without switching up some of the players involved.
My biggest worry when looking at the stats is how the Winnipeg Jets are playing at 5 on 5 this year. Last season, this franchise dominated the flow of play when teams were at even strength but that is hardly the case this year. Our squad has switched from a team that controlled the goals when no one was in the box & struggling when the sin bin was occupied to almost the complete opposite. Alright, it isn’t really that bad at even strength for the Jets this year, but without some improvement in that area over the rest of the season the team’s post-season potential remains iffy in my mind. Here is how the Peggers are ranked in Goals percentage, Expected Goals percentage, Corsi, Goal Differential, & Expected Goal Differential at even strength:
As long as those “actual” categories remain in the top 5, the Winnipeg Jets will continue to pick up wins but it is worrisome that the underlying numbers suggest that our squad is out-performing based on their on-ice actions.
There have been a lot of good things this year, such as the top unit of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, & Gabriel Vilardi’s performance and the heavily relied upon Adam Lowry, Nino Niederreiter, & Mason Appleton trio. In fact, it is pretty difficult to find any Jet player that isn’t on pace for a career season offensively…though not impossible thanks to Morgan Barron. Since I kind of put down Connor Hellebuyck earlier when I was discussing the penalty kill, I really should reinforce just how incredible our starter has been this season. Bucky has been named the Top Performer by ESPN in 11 of Winnipeg’s 36 games (30.5% of the time) and is as close to being a lock for another Vezina trophy as you can be at the mid-point of the campaign. Hellebuyck is currently sitting in 1st in a bunch of categories (GAA, save %, Goals Saved Above Expected, & MINs played) and sits in 3rd in Goals Against Average Above Expected. Other than the less than dominant penalty killing save percentage numbers, the only “negative” about Bucky is his 34th ranking in High Danger Save Percentage (though he is in top 5 in Medium & Low Danger attempts). I also want to give Eric Comrie a pat on the back (3.05 GAA, .902%, & -1.5 GSAE) because his 3-5-0 record isn’t reflective of his performance (in the 31st to 49th range, solid for a back up). He just hasn’t received the run support needed, with Winnipeg scoring 17 goals in his first 3 games and only 8 in his last 5 starts.
Well, I believe that I have rambled on long enough…though part of my brain is reminding me that I still have a bit of data about the Winnipeg Jets’ to share with all of you. Since I never tire of hearing myself talk (or type), let us briefly dive into what the scoring chances for and against tell us about our franchise.
Focusing on 5 on 5 play, the numbers show the True Northers are performing well offensively, but there could be room for improvement on the defensive side of things. The Jets have created the 6th most Low Danger Scoring attempts (LDSC) through 36 games, while ranking a respectable 12th in Medium Danger Scoring (MDSC) and 11th in High Danger Scoring attempts (HDSC). In their own end, Winnipeg has allowed the 15th least amount of HDSC against, but rank near the bottom of the NHL in MDSC (25th) & LDSC (31st). Now one could read that as the Peggers allowing way too many shots against, but a more optimistic pair of eyes might suggest the Jets are doing a pretty good job of keeping the opposition to the perimeter.
Winnipeg prospect Brayden Yager was held off the scoresheet in Canada’s 4-0 win over Finland on Boxing Day, but will get another chance this evening (6:30 pm Central) when his team takes on Latvia. Enjoy the rest of the World Junior Championship matches and start preparing for the Jets’ 6 pm Central game on Saturday (vs Ottawa Senators).
As always, love to hear any thoughts on the article/stats or any Winnipeg Jets related topic in the comment section below. Have a great day 🙂
